Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

44

Calvin de Haan

Carolina Hurricanes Defense

A 46.0 per cent chance share and a minus-21 in Chicago, and eight more goals conceded than his ice had any right to.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NYI1000+1000020.013:01
2013-14NYI5131316-730101714.221:01
2014-15NYI6511112+324010921.119:01
2015-16NYI7221416+3200001022.020:38
2016-17NYI8252025+15361011164.319:51
2017-18NYI3311112+118000442.318:45
2018-19CAR7411314+1200011021.018:31
2019-20CHI29156+1010000422.419:55
2020-21CHI441910-1614001581.718:37
2021-22CHI69448-21330001073.718:57
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—5201910011901952147362.619:29

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With Chicago. 4 goals and 4 assists in 69 games — 8 points at 18:57 a night, minus-21, on 107 shots and 33 penalty minutes.

46.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,171 minutes, the 23rd percentile among defencemen. His ice went 35-55 against an expectation of 39.94-46.86 — five goals of scoring missing and eight more conceded than the chances predicted.

Chicago finished 27th in the league last season, and 1,171 minutes of it is a difficult place to be measured from.

The Finesse Game

107 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 4 per cent from inside 20, four goals, and eight points in 69 games. 119 points in 520 career games.

There is nothing offensive here and there has not been since the Islanders. He shoots from the point and the puck moves sideways.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 192. He is a shot-blocking, gap-holding defender and 195 penalty minutes in 520 games is the whole physical record — not heavy, not nasty, and reliably in the lane.

The tracking gives a 21.4 mph top speed and 0.2 bursts above 20 mph a game, both near the bottom of the position. At thirty-one that is the number that decides whether he is a third-pair defenceman or a seventh one.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2009 by the Islanders, and 520 games across the Islanders, Carolina, Chicago and back here again.

He is 31, returning to the club he spent 2018-19 with. Carolina has Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, Burns and Coghlan ahead of or alongside him, which means he is insurance rather than a solution — and on a club with the best defensive record in hockey, insurance is what the sixth defenceman is for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He is a shot-blocking, gap-holding defender and 195 penalty minutes in 520 games is the whole physical record”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,171 minutes

Expected goals
46%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.4%
33rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 55 against. Expected: 39.9 and 46.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
23rd

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 69 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
42nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.17 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.62 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.4 mph
50th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CHI · 1171 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.0% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,171 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Seth Jones46.1%46.0%48.1%
Alex DeBrincat51.5%42.9%48.5%
Patrick Kane49.1%44.4%46.2%

46.1% together, 46.0% for him apart and 48.1% for Jones apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

145 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 78% from beyond forty.