Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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58

Kris Letang

Pittsburgh Penguins Defense

Fifty-eight assists at 35, the 4th-heaviest workload of 202 defencemen and the 8th-best even-strength point rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07PIT7202-34200825.011:33
2007-08PIT6361117-123103688.818:10
2008-09PIT74102333-7244131387.221:09
2009-10PIT7332427+1510001741.721:34
2010-11PIT8284250+151014022363.424:02
2011-12PIT51103242+21344131427.024:50
2012-13PIT3553338+168101955.325:38
2013-14PIT37111122-81660110810.224:14
2014-15PIT69114354+12792111975.625:29
2015-16PIT71165167+9665022187.326:57
2016-17PIT4152934+2322021224.125:31
2017-18PIT7994251-9564012224.025:20
2018-19PIT65164056+13482132067.825:58
2019-20PIT611529440386021778.525:44
2020-21PIT5573845+19321021325.324:39
2021-22PIT78105868+20492032144.725:47
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—941144506650+1006614642924575.924:10

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 10 goals and 58 assists at 25:47 a night, plus-20, forty-nine penalty minutes, 214 shots. That ice time is the 4th-heaviest of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, and fifty-eight assists is tied for the 5th-most of any defenceman in this book. Sixteen seasons, 941 games, 650 points and a career plus-100, all of it for one club.

The Finesse Game

1.69 even-strength points per 60 is the 8th-best of the 202 defencemen who played forty games. At 35, on the 3rd-heaviest workload of his sixteen seasons — he has been above twenty-five minutes a night in seven of the last nine.

6.39 shots per 60 is the 88th percentile and the geography is unusual for a man who plays the point: seventeen per cent from the slot is the 87th percentile and a 47-foot median is the 17th. He shoots from closer than eighty-three per cent of the position.

Three minutes and twenty-nine seconds of power play a night is the 98th percentile and thirty-two per cent of his points came there.

1.76 takeaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile against 2.36 giveaways at the 83rd — a heavy two-way ledger from a man handling the puck constantly.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals and 51.1 per cent of the attempts, out of 54.3 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 199th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

The pair file says who he played with. With Sidney Crosby across 1,284 attempts the two took 56.4 per cent of the expected goals; apart from Crosby, Letang is at 47.8 across 1,649. With Jeff Carter it is 43.0 per cent. That is an eight-and-a-half-point swing between his best and worst regular combination.

The Physical Game

5.10 hits per 60 is the 64th percentile and 3.64 blocks the 33rd at 6-0 and 199 pounds. 0.36 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.69 taken, and forty-nine penalty minutes came out of seventy-eight games.

The Intangibles

8.93 miles per 60 is the 14th-most of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 35 years old.

The 22.5 mph top speed is the 82nd percentile and 1.6 bursts per 60 only the 53rd. Distance, not pace — which at twenty-six minutes a night in a sixteenth season is a remarkable thing for the chips to be recording.

He is 35 with 941 games and 650 points. The point rate, the workload and the ground covered are three top-of-the-position figures in the same season, and the number underneath them is a 51.8 per cent expected-goal share on a club that took 53.5 per cent of the chances.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:53 a game at five-on-five, 97th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “8.93 miles per 60 is the 14th-most of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 35 years old.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Sixteen seasons, 941 games, 650 points and a career plus-100, all of it for one club.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,551 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.1%
66th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 72 for, 57 against. Expected: 70.2 and 65.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
69th

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
88th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.69 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.83 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.0 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1551 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PIT took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 1.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,551 minutes at five-on-five — 99th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brian Dumoulin52.2%51.1%48.2%
Jake Guentzel53.2%50.5%53.6%
Sidney Crosby56.4%47.8%52.6%

52.2% together, 51.1% for him apart and 48.2% for Dumoulin apart. Dumoulin was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Dumoulin than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

268 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 63% from beyond forty.