Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 21 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 250 for, 200 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.4% 13th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 51.6% 14th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.34 12th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.97 11th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -0.8 18th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +2.8 13th of 32

Tampa Bay Lightning finished close to the chances underneath them at both ends. The record is roughly what the play deserved.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.3; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 0.9%; of skater points
From under 26: 30.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 56.5%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 80.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Ninety-eight points, a .9152 from a goaltender whose career figure is higher, and the one man in this book the point shot works for.

Who this names 10 of 21 on the roster · 41% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Zach Bogosian, Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli, Michael Eyssimont, Haydn Fleury, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman, Tanner Jeannot, Nick Paul, Nick Perbix, Mikhail Sergachev.

What the Quant Says

46-30-6, 98 points, 13th in the league and third in the Atlantic.

283 goals for, 8th. 254 against, 14th. Ninth at creating chances at even strength, 17th at suppressing them, 14th on the power play over the fifth-most power-play time — and 22nd on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 175 goals scored against 175.8 expected, and 162 conceded against 164.8. The finishing was 18th at minus-0.8 and the goaltending 13th at plus-2.8. Nothing about this record was borrowed in either direction.

Tampa Bay lost the first round to Toronto in six.

Nikita Kucherov had 113 points and 83 assists at 173 pounds. Brayden Point scored 51 goals at 21.7 per cent and is the second-fastest skater in this book. Steven Stamkos took 116 slap shots and scored 7 goals from beyond 40 feet — the one man in this book the point shot works for. Andrei Vasilevskiy has now played nine seasons without a save percentage below .9102.

Conor Sheary, Calvin de Haan, Luke Glendening, Tyler Motte, Austin Watson and Jonas Johansson arrive. Alex Killorn, Ross Colton, Patrick Maroon, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Vladislav Namestnikov and Ian Cole do not.

Seven of the departures are bottom-six forwards and six of the arrivals are the same. The top of this roster is unchanged, very expensive and getting older, and it is still good enough that ninety-eight points reads as a disappointment.

What the Scout Says

The one man in this book the point shot works for, and the most stable goaltending record in it.

Steven Stamkos took 116 slap shots and scored 7 goals from beyond 40 feet. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played nine seasons without a save percentage below .9102. Nikita Kucherov had 83 assists and Brayden Point 51 goals.

This is an old, expensive, extremely well-coached club whose record last season matched its play to within a goal at both ends. Everything that has changed around the edges made it cheaper rather than better.

Who this names 8 of 12 forwards · 77% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Michael Eyssimont, Luke Glendening, Tyler Motte, Austin Watson.

What the Quant Says

283 goals, 8th in the league.

Tampa Bay created 2.791 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 10th, and took 51.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 13th, and 51.6 per cent of the expected goals, 14th.

At five-on-five it scored 175 goals against an expectation of 175.8 — a shortfall of 0.8, 18th in the league. Almost exactly what the chances were worth.

Nikita Kucherov had 30 goals and 113 points with 83 assists at 173 pounds — tied third in scoring in this book. Brayden Point scored 51 goals at 21.7 per cent on 137 shots from inside 20 feet, Steven Stamkos had 34 and 84 at 33, Brandon Hagel 30 and 64 from a sixth-round pick, Mikhail Sergachev 64 points from the blue line and Victor Hedman 49 at 32.

Conor Sheary arrives from Washington with 15 goals and 37 points at 5-8.

What the Scout Says

Fifty-one goals from the second-fastest skater in this book, and eighty-three assists from a hundred and seventy-three-pound winger.

Nikita Kucherov is 6-0 and 173 and had 83 assists on 396 tracked attempts. He has 729 points in 644 games and two Stanley Cups. The playmaking is the best in this chapter and among the two or three best in the book.

Brayden Point is 5-11 and 177 and scored 51 goals at 21.7 per cent, taking 137 shots from inside 20 feet with 56 per cent of his attempts from in there. He is the fastest skater in this book but one, with the third-highest burst rate in it, and took 7 penalty minutes all season.

Steven Stamkos is 6-1 and 193 with 1,056 points in 1,003 games and took 116 slap shots — a genuine one-timer in an era that has nearly stopped rewarding one.

Brandon Hagel is 6-2 and was a sixth-round pick, and scored 30 goals off the softest measured shot on the roster. Nick Paul is 6-4 and 234 with 37 backhands and the hardest zone starts of any regular Tampa Bay forward. Anthony Cirelli has 11 career shorthanded goals in 352 games.

Conor Sheary arrives at 5-8, undrafted, with 531 NHL games. Tanner Jeannot is undrafted with 107 penalty minutes.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 95% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Haydn Fleury.

What the Quant Says

Tampa Bay allowed 2.626 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 17th in the league, and conceded 254 goals, 14th.

At five-on-five it conceded 162 goals against an expectation of 164.8, and the club's goaltending came in 2.8 goals better than the chances it faced, 13th in the league.

Mikhail Sergachev played 79 games at 23:49 with 64 points, and took 115 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet for 8 goals — the largest long-range return of any defenceman in this chapter.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 pounds with a 101.3 mph shot at the 99th percentile, and scored 4 goals from 118 attempts beyond 40 feet. Erik Cernak is 230 pounds and took 58 shots from beyond 40 feet without scoring.

Nick Perbix is a sixth-round pick who played 69 games in a first season at a positive chance share. Calvin de Haan arrives from Carolina with a 60.5 per cent chance share, the 98th percentile. Ian Cole has gone to Vancouver.

What the Scout Says

Six foot seven and a hundred and one miles an hour, and four goals from a hundred and eighteen attempts.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 pounds with 974 games, 652 points and a career plus-157, and his shot is measured at 101.3 mph, the 99th percentile and one of the ten hardest in the league. He took 118 attempts from beyond 40 feet and scored 4 of them, which is the finding this book keeps printing.

Mikhail Sergachev is 6-3 and 212 and had 64 points at 23:49 a night, taking 115 shots from the point for 8 goals — the largest long-range return of any defenceman in this chapter, and the exception rather than the rule.

Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 with 254 career penalty minutes and took 58 shots from beyond 40 feet without scoring. Zach Bogosian was third overall in 2008 and has 715 career penalty minutes, slapping 42 per cent of his attempts.

Nick Perbix is a sixth-round pick who played 69 games in a first season at a positive chance share. Calvin de Haan arrives with a 60.5 per cent chance share, the 98th percentile, in 13:32 a night.

Who this names 11 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

22nd in the league at 7.092 expected goals against per 60, over 5:00 a night, 17th in shorthanded time.

Anthony Cirelli scored 2 shorthanded goals, Victor Hedman 1, Nick Paul 1, Brandon Hagel 1 and Erik Cernak 1. Austin Watson scored 3 elsewhere, Conor Sheary 2, Luke Glendening 2 and Tyler Motte 1.

Anthony Cirelli has 11 career shorthanded goals in 352 games, the most on the roster and by rate one of the larger figures in this book. Austin Watson arrives with 8 in 482, Luke Glendening arrives with 6 in 706, Steven Stamkos has 5 in 1,003 and Tyler Motte arrives with 4 in 331.

LW · Tampa Bay Lightning

Ninety-four attacking draws against two hundred and seventy-four defensive ones, and 123 penalty minutes.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.