This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Nick Perbix
Tampa Bay Lightning Defense
A sixth-round pick, sixty-nine games in his first season, and a thousand five-on-five minutes at a positive chance share.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | TBL | 69 | 5 | 15 | 20 | +11 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 111 | 4.5 | 15:24 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 69 | 5 | 15 | 20 | +11 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 111 | 4.5 | 15:24 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
5 goals and 15 assists in 69 games — 20 points — at 15:24 a night. Plus-11, 111 shots at 4.5 per cent, two game-winners, 22 penalty minutes.
It was his first NHL season, at twenty-four.
51.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,018 minutes, the 55th percentile, with his ice at 49-37 against an expectation of 43.05-40.89 — six goals better than the chances at the good end and four better at the other.
He started 54.9 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 72nd percentile, which is the third pair on a good club and the right introduction.
A thousand five-on-five minutes at a positive chance share is a genuinely good rookie season for a sixth-round defenceman, and it is the single most useful fact in this file.
The Finesse Game
111 shots at a median of 50 feet, with 72 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 5 per cent from inside twenty.
Beyond forty feet: 80 shots on goal and two goals — 2.50 per cent, below the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 23 shots and three goals, 13.04 per cent, above the league rate of 8.83. Inside twenty: seven shots and none.
Eighty shots from the point in a rookie season is a large volume and the return was ordinary. Three of his five goals came from the twenty-three shots he took from the mid-slot.
146 tracked attempts, 30 of them slap shots — a 20.5 per cent share, the lowest of the four Tampa Bay defencemen who played a thousand minutes — and 94 wrist shots. 90.5 mph at the 47th percentile.
The first pass is competent and the shot is not a weapon. On a third pair behind Hedman and Sergachev, neither of those is a problem.
The Physical Game
6-4 and 206 pounds, which is tall and light. Top speed 22.2 mph at the 48th percentile, 0.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 21st, 2.25 miles a game at the 28th.
An ordinary tracking line on fifteen minutes a night, and nothing in it stands out in either direction.
22 penalty minutes in 69 games. He is not a physical defenceman and at 206 pounds on a 6-4 frame there is room to become one.
He defends with reach, which at 6-4 is the natural method and is what a third-pair defenceman with average feet has to rely on.
The Intangibles
A hundred and sixty-ninth overall in 2017, the sixth round, one season, 69 games, 20 points.
He was twenty-four before he played an NHL game, six years after he was drafted in the sixth round.
What a sixth-round defenceman who reaches the NHL at twenty-four and immediately plays a thousand five-on-five minutes at a positive chance share is worth is the question, and the answer is more than the twenty points suggest.
He is twenty-five, on a club whose blue line is Hedman at thirty-two and Sergachev at twenty-five. The room above him is going to open.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“He defends with reach, which at 6-4 is the natural method and is what a third-pair defenceman with average feet has to rely on.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,018 minutes
- Expected goals
- 51.3%
- 61st pct
- Shot attempts
- 52%
- 71st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 37 against. Expected: 43.0 and 40.9.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 69 games
- Top speed
- 22.2 mph
- 77th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.41 a game
- Distance
- 2.25 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 90.5 mph
- 43rd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 90.0
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1018 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- TBL took 51.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.3% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First pair, 1,018 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev | 53.2% | 49.6% | 53.5% |
| Victor Hedman | 47.0% | 53.7% | 50.9% |
| Brayden Point | 51.4% | 51.2% | 55.2% |
53.2% together, 49.6% for him apart and 53.5% for Sergachev apart. He was worse away from Sergachev, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Sergachev did.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
145 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 76% from beyond forty.