Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

43

Conor Sheary

Tampa Bay Lightning Left Wing

Five-foot-eight, undrafted, and 531 NHL games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16PIT447310-180005113.79:45
2016-17PIT61233053+242220615414.915:56
2017-18PIT79181230+21020414212.713:57
2018-19BUF78142034-18124031479.514:37
2019-20BUF/PIT63101323-5101011029.813:07
2020-21WSH5314822-1141018815.913:43
2021-22WSH71192443-21420512914.715:17
2022-23WSH82152237+9222211549.715:46
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—531120132252+81121422196712.414:16

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 22 assists in 82 games — 37 points — at 15:46 a night for Washington. Plus-9, 154 shots at 9.7 per cent, two on the power play, two shorthanded, 22 penalty minutes.

He played all 82 for the first time in his career, at thirty.

49.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,072 minutes, the 41st percentile, with his ice at 48-41 against an expectation of 48.00-49.12 — exactly the goals the chances predicted at the good end and eight fewer than they predicted at the other.

He started 58.2 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 85th percentile.

The Finesse Game

154 shots at a median of 23 feet.

From twenty to forty feet: 68 shots on goal and eight goals — 11.76 per cent, on the league rate of 11.05. Inside twenty: 59 shots and seven goals, 11.86, well below the league forward rate of 17.71. Beyond forty: 19 shots and none.

On the rate from the mid-slot and a long way under it from close range, which on a hundred and twenty-seven shots on goal is a genuine shortfall rather than noise: a league-rate season from inside twenty feet would have been eleven goals rather than seven.

A 9.7 per cent shooting percentage against a career 12.4 across 967 shots. The career figure is the better one and it is a good figure for a 5-8 winger.

217 tracked attempts, 29 of them tip-ins and eleven slap. 90.9 mph at the 50th percentile — an entirely ordinary shot, which for a man of his size is a small achievement in itself.

The Physical Game

5-8 and 180 pounds — the shortest skater in this chapter — with 22 penalty minutes in 82 games and 112 in 531 career games.

1.6 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game at the 77th percentile, a top speed of 22.5 mph at the 60th, 2.37 miles a game at the 36th. He sprints often on modest ground covered, which is the fourth-line and third-line shape.

He is not a physical player and cannot be at 180 pounds. The game is played in the space between checkers, and when a defenceman gets a body on him the puck is gone.

He kills penalties and has two shorthanded goals from last season alone, which for a small winger is the part of the file that keeps him dressed on nights when the scoring does not come.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, eight seasons, 531 games, 252 points across Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Washington, and two Stanley Cups in Pittsburgh.

120 goals from a 5-8 winger who was never drafted. The 53-point season in 2016-17 alongside Sidney Crosby is the peak, and the six seasons since have run between 22 and 43.

He is thirty-one, joining a club that has won two championships and needs bottom-six forwards who can play in the attacking zone.

What the file records is one of the more improbable careers in this book: five hundred and thirty-one NHL games from a man nobody drafted, at a size the league spent most of that period trying to eliminate.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “120 goals from a 5-8 winger who was never drafted.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties and has two shorthanded goals from last season alone, which for a small winger is the part of the file that keeps him dressed on nights when the scoring does not come.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is not a physical player and cannot be at 180 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,072 minutes

Expected goals
49.4%
47th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.6%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 41 against. Expected: 48.0 and 49.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
47th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
66th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.37 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.9 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with WSH · 1072 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
WSH took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,072 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Ovechkin51.2%47.9%44.6%
Dylan Strome51.6%47.8%49.9%
Erik Gustafsson51.3%48.5%54.2%

51.2% together, 47.9% for him apart and 44.6% for Ovechkin apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

208 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.