Tampa Bay Lightning

What the Quant Says

291 goals, 5th in the league. Only four clubs in hockey scored more.

Tampa Bay created 2.503 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 22nd, and took 50.5 per cent of the shot attempts and 50.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, both 17th. Middling underlying numbers, fifth place in goals.

It scored 172 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 161.9 — a surplus of 10.1, 7th in the league. The rest of the gap is a power play that finished sixth and a group of finishers who convert above their chances every year.

Nikita Kucherov had 44 goals and 100 assists for 144 points — the most of anybody in this edition. Brayden Point scored 46 with 12 game-winners, the most in the edition. Victor Hedman had 13 goals and 63 assists at 24:48. Brandon Hagel had 75 points and Nick Paul 46.

Jake Guentzel arrives having scored 30 goals and 77 points across Pittsburgh and Carolina. Steven Stamkos is in Nashville.

What the Scout Says

A hundred-assist winger, a forty-six-goal centre and Jake Guentzel arriving.

Nikita Kucherov is 6-0 and 173 and took 447 attempts at a median of 33 feet, 297 of them on goal, converting 14.4 per cent against a career 14.44. His 100 assists are tied for the most in this edition and 144 points is the highest total in it. He plays the game from the half-wall and from below the goal line and sees the seam a beat before anybody else does.

Brayden Point is 5-11 and 177 and took 52 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet, at a 19-foot median, converting 20.3 per cent — the third-highest rate in this edition. His 12 game-winners are the most in the edition and he has 89 career power-play goals in 580 games.

Jake Guentzel is 5-11 and 176 and took 338 attempts at a 19-foot median with 52 per cent inside twenty, and his 57.2 per cent chance share is the best figure anybody on this roster carried. Brandon Hagel was a sixth-round pick and had 75 points. Nick Paul is 6-4 and 234 and scored 24 with 9 on the power play.

What the Quant Says

Tampa Bay allowed 2.457 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 10th in the league, and conceded 268 goals, 22nd. Twelve places between what it gave up and what went in, and the whole of the distance is a crease.

At five-on-five it conceded 190 goals against an expectation of 158.6. Thirty-one more than the shots called for, and the club's goaltending came in 31.4 goals worse than the chances it faced — the worst figure in this edition.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 and played 78 games at 24:48, with 13 goals and 63 assists — the fourth-most assists of any defenceman in the edition. His ice went 74-60 against an expectation of 65.81-59.84.

Darren Raddysh is undrafted and played all 82 at 19:06 with 33 points, and his ice conceded sixteen goals more than the shots called for. Nick Perbix played 77 at 17:05 and finished plus-8. Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 and took 63 penalty minutes.

Ryan McDonagh arrives from Nashville with 74 games at 21:47, a plus-19 and a career plus-246 — the second-largest figure in this edition. J.J. Moser arrives from Arizona with 80 games at 20:34.

What the Scout Says

A 6-7 defenceman with 63 assists, and an undrafted one who played all 82.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 and played 78 games at 24:48, with 572 career assists in 1,052 games and a career plus-175. At that size the reach takes away everything through the middle, and the first pass out is still the best on the club at 33. Sixty-three assists is the fourth-most of any defenceman in this edition.

Darren Raddysh is undrafted and played all 82 at 19:06 with 33 points, taking 77 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet. Nick Perbix was a sixth-round pick, is 6-4, and finished plus-8 over 1,249 minutes.

Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 with 317 career penalty minutes in 365 games and a career plus-64. He clears the crease and does very little else with the puck — 20 goals in 365 games.

Ryan McDonagh is 6-1 and 216 with 928 games and a career plus-246, the second-largest figure in this edition. J.J. Moser is 6-2 and 183 and played 20:34 a night in Arizona at 23. Emil Lilleberg is 6-3 and took not one attempt from inside twenty feet in 37 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 31.4 goals worse than the chances it faced — 32nd in the league and the worst figure in this edition. Tampa Bay allowed the tenth-fewest expected goals per 60 at even strength and conceded the twenty-second-most goals in hockey.

Andrei Vasilevskiy went 30-20-2 with an .8998 and a 2.90 in 52 games, facing 1,477 shots, with 2 shutouts. His career line across 477 games is a .9167 with 293 wins and 34 shutouts — fifth in this edition for career wins and fifth for career save percentage among goaltenders with two hundred games. The .8998 is the first season below .910 of his career.

Jonas Johansson went 12-7-5 with an .8896 and a 3.37 in 26 games, facing 752 shots, with 2 shutouts. His .8896 was tied for the third-lowest save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games. He is 28 and his career line across 61 games is an .8883.

Two goaltenders under .900 on a club that finished sixth in the East. There is no version of this roster that is not a contender if the crease returns to normal, and no version that is one if it does not.

What the Scout Says

A .9167 career goaltender who went .8998, and a backup who went .8896.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is 6-4 and 223 and has played 477 games at a career .9167, with 293 wins and 34 shutouts — fifth in this edition in both career wins and career save percentage among men with two hundred games. He is enormous, plays deep and square, and takes away the whole lower half of the net by size alone. The .8998 is the first season below .910 of his career, and the club lost thirty-one and a half goals behind the tenth-best chance suppression in the league.

Jonas Johansson is 6-5 and 220 and went 12-7-5 with an .8896, tied for the third-lowest save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games. He is very large and very raw at 28, and a career .8883 across 61 games is not a backup a contender should be relying on.

Thirty-one and a half goals is what this club lost in one department while finishing thirteenth. Everything about the roster hangs on one number returning to where it sat for nine seasons.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 8.149 expected goals per 60, over 4:59 a night, the seventeenth-most power-play time of any club. Ordinary volume, genuinely dangerous rate.

Brayden Point scored 15 power-play goals, Nikita Kucherov 13, Nick Paul 9, Jake Guentzel 5 elsewhere, Victor Hedman 4, Anthony Cirelli 3, Brandon Hagel 2, Michael Eyssimont 2 and Cam Atkinson 2.

Brayden Point has 89 career power-play goals in 580 games, the most on the roster, and Nikita Kucherov 88 in 725. Jake Guentzel has 49 in 520 and Cam Atkinson 46 in 770.

Nikita Kucherov had 100 assists last season, tied for the most in this edition. A unit with the edition's leading passer, its leading goalscorer at 46, a 6-7 defenceman at the point and Jake Guentzel arriving is the best collection of power-play parts in this chapter.

What the Scout Says

Seventh in the league on the seventeenth-most ice, with the two best power-play scorers in the chapter on the same unit.

Brayden Point has 89 career power-play goals in 580 games and scored 15 last season. He is 5-11 and works the far post and the bumper, and 52 per cent of his attempts come from inside twenty feet.

Nikita Kucherov has 88 career power-play goals in 725 games and scored 13, with 100 assists on the season. He runs the unit from the right wall and the entire structure is built around what he can see from there.

Jake Guentzel has 49 career power-play goals in 520 games and arrives to fill the spot Steven Stamkos left. Victor Hedman is 6-7 and has 31 career power-play goals and takes the point. Nick Paul is 6-4 and 234 and scored 9, which is a net-front man doing the net-front job.

There is no obvious weakness here. Seventh in the league is probably below what these five men should produce.

What the Quant Says

9th in the league at 6.453 expected goals against per 60, over 4:52 a night, the twenty-second-most shorthanded time in hockey. Modest volume, top-ten rate.

Anthony Cirelli scored 2 shorthanded goals and Luke Glendening 1. Anthony Cirelli has 13 career shorthanded goals in 431 games, which is more than the rest of this roster has between them.

Cam Atkinson has 19 career shorthanded goals in 770 games, the most on the roster, and arrives from Philadelphia. Zemgus Girgensons has 7 in 688 and Luke Glendening 7 in 787 on 298 penalty minutes.

Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 with 317 career penalty minutes in 365 games and Ryan McDonagh has 928 games and a career plus-246. The men are here and the rate says the structure works. It is the only department on this club that finished where it should have.

What the Scout Says

Ninth in the league by rate, on the twenty-second-most shorthanded time.

Anthony Cirelli has 13 career shorthanded goals in 431 games and a career plus-94, behind only Nikita Kucherov among the forwards here. He is 6-1 and 193 and played 18:31 a night on a 52.4 per cent chance share.

Cam Atkinson has 19 career shorthanded goals in 770 games, the most on the roster, and is 5-8 and 178. Luke Glendening is undrafted with 7 in 787 games and Zemgus Girgensons has 7 in 688.

Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 and blocks the middle of the ice on 317 career penalty minutes. Ryan McDonagh has 928 games and 313 career assists and has played for four clubs.

This unit finished ninth in the league and it is the one part of the season that came out where the play said it should.