Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

77

Patrick Maroon

Minnesota Wild Left Wing

The slowest measured forward in the league, and the most penalty minutes in it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12ANA20000200010.012:33
2012-13ANA13213-110000219.59:47
2013-14ANA62111829+111011039311.812:19
2014-15ANA7192534-5821011207.514:17
2015-16ANA/EDM72121527-78850110411.512:20
2016-17EDM81271542+139530517815.216:44
2017-18EDM/NJD74172643+17310414112.116:32
2018-19STL74101828-3642031188.514:10
2019-20TBL6491423+4711018011.312:25
2020-21TBL5541418+260200468.711:36
2021-22TBL81111627+2013430010210.812:24
2022-23TBL805914-5150000628.110:21
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—729117171288+3093019018106611.013:19

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 9 assists in 80 games — 14 points — with 150 penalty minutes, the most in the league. Minus-5, 10:21 a night, 62 shots, with Tampa Bay.

One hundred and fifty penalty minutes from ten minutes a night is a rate of nearly two minors a game.

49.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 48th percentile, with his ice at 22-27 against an expectation of 31.86-32.44 — ten goals short at the offensive end, which is a fourth line on a club that shoots the puck at the goaltender.

Twelve seasons, 729 games, 288 points.

The Finesse Game

62 shots at a median of 19 feet, 54 per cent from inside twenty and 10 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 6 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 55 shots, 5 goals.

Six long shots in eighty games. Everything he puts on net comes from the paint, because the paint is where he stands, and 58 of his 98 tracked attempts were wrist shots taken from arm’s length.

80.3 mph at the 2nd percentile. He took five slap shots all year, so the measurement is largely recording his choices; nothing about his game has ever run through the shot.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 234, and 150 penalty minutes.

Top speed 20.5 mph. Among skaters who played forty games last season, only three registered a lower maximum, and all three are defencemen — he is the slowest measured forward in the league. Bursts 0.07 a game, eighth-fewest in the league. 1.61 miles a game, the 2nd percentile.

There is no version of these numbers that flatters him and none is needed. He stands in front of the goaltender, he takes the cross-checks, he fights, and he is impossible to move. At 234 pounds and 20.5 mph that is the only thing left, and three consecutive Stanley Cups say clubs value it.

He has taken more than a hundred penalty minutes in three seasons, and the last two of them are the last two.

The Intangibles

One hundred and sixty-first overall in 2007, four seasons in the minors, and an NHL debut at twenty-three.

50.1 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 46th percentile.

Three Stanley Cups in three straight years, one with St. Louis and two with Tampa Bay, is a record almost nobody in this book can match, and this book has no metric that explains it. What it can measure is a thirty-five-year-old fourth-line winger with fourteen points and the slowest skating in the league.

Minnesota signed him for a year. Both of those descriptions are true at once and the club has decided which one matters.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    67.0% of his attempts in the slot, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He stands in front of the goaltender, he takes the cross-checks, he fights, and he is impossible to move.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He stands in front of the goaltender, he takes the cross-checks, he fights, and he is impossible to move.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He has taken more than a hundred penalty minutes in three seasons, and the last two of them are the last two.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 819 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51%
61st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 22 for, 27 against. Expected: 31.9 and 32.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
48th

The numbers rank him 28 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
20.5 mph
5th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.07 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.61 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.3 mph
19th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with TBL · 819 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
TBL took 51.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 2.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 819 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ross Colton53.0%46.8%49.5%
Victor Hedman47.3%50.7%50.6%
Nicholas Paul47.5%50.5%50.7%

53.0% together, 46.8% for him apart and 49.5% for Colton apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

97 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.