Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

41

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Seattle Kraken Left Wing

Undrafted, born in France, 660 NHL games, and thirteen points a season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15PHI816612-3180011135.312:50
2015-16PHI747714-8270111026.913:34
2016-17PHI82448-120000904.412:58
2017-18VGK7261016+514001926.512:20
2018-19VGK766915+260201085.612:26
2019-20COL6991322+2170208510.613:25
2020-21COL539211+6210006015.011:20
2021-22TBL8091120+24190117212.513:45
2022-23TBL734913-934000517.811:17
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—6606071131+181760647737.812:43

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 9 assists in 73 games — 13 points — at 11:17 a night for Tampa Bay. Minus-9, 51 shots at 7.8 per cent, 34 penalty minutes, no power-play points.

45.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 19th percentile, across 669 minutes, with his ice at 18-29 against an expectation of 21.45-25.51.

He started 48.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 38th percentile, which is a fourth-line assignment rather than a punishing one.

Nine seasons, 660 games, 131 points. He has never scored ten goals in a season.

The Finesse Game

51 shots at a median of 26 feet.

Inside twenty feet: 22 shots on goal and two goals — 9.09 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 15 shots and two goals. Beyond forty: 11 shots and none.

Sixty goals in 660 career games at a 7.8 per cent shooting percentage. There is no scoring record here, there never has been, and nobody has ever asked for one.

75 tracked attempts, 15 of them tip-ins and three slap. 91.0 mph at the 51st percentile.

The faceoff and the penalty kill are the job. Six career shorthanded goals from a man with sixty in total is the tell: he is on the first unit, has been for nine years, and takes the draw that starts it.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 198 pounds. 1.80 miles a game at the 7th percentile at eleven minutes a night, with a top speed of 21.8 mph at the 24th and 0.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 20th.

Eleven minutes explains the mileage and not the rest: he is a slow thirty-eight-year-old fourth-line centre and the tracking says so from every direction.

34 penalty minutes in 73 games and 176 in 660 career games — a low rate across a long career of playing this way.

He forechecks and finishes checks at thirty-eight, which is most of why nine seasons happened at all, and he does it without taking the penalties that usually come with it.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, born in France, nine seasons, 660 games across Philadelphia, Vegas, Colorado and Tampa Bay.

60 goals and 71 assists in nine years. He reached the NHL at twenty-nine after a career in Sweden, which is a later start than almost anybody in this book, and has not missed much since: 69 games or more in eight of nine seasons.

He is thirty-eight, the oldest player on this roster by five years, and the fourth-line centre job on a club with four functional lines is exactly the role.

A 19th-percentile chance share is the number a club has to accept to get the rest of it, and on eleven minutes a night that is an affordable trade.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “He reached the NHL at twenty-nine after a career in Sweden, which is a later start than almost anybody in this book, and has not missed much since: 69 games or more in eight of nine seasons.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Six career shorthanded goals from a man with sixty in total is the tell: he is on the first unit, has been for nine years, and takes the draw that starts it.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks and finishes checks at thirty-eight, which is most of why nine seasons happened at all, and he does it without taking the penalties that usually come with it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 669 minutes

Expected goals
45.7%
25th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.5%
34th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 29 against. Expected: 21.4 and 25.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
25th

The report ranks him 23 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 73 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
35th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.40 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.80 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.0 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with TBL · 669 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
TBL took 51.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.7% — 5.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 669 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Corey Perry48.7%40.6%56.0%
Pat Maroon44.5%46.5%51.8%
Victor Hedman34.9%50.9%52.1%

48.7% together, 40.6% for him apart and 56.0% for Perry apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Perry and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

71 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.