Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 22 reports in the 2025-26 edition.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2024-25 · 82 games · 250 for, 200 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 50.2% 13th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 50.8% 11th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.34 12th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.97 11th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +17.7 6th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +17.5 4th of 32

Tampa Bay Lightning scored 17.7 more goals than their chances were worth and got 17.5 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 35 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 29.3; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 15.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 12.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 41.7%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 80.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Most goals in the league and fourth-fewest against, on a five-on-five chance share of 50.8 per cent — thirty-five goals of finishing and goaltending, and a first-round exit for the third year running.

Who this names 12 of 22 on the roster · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Mitchell Chaffee, Anthony Cirelli, Conor Geekie, Gage Goncalves, Jake Guentzel, Jonas Johansson, J.J. Moser, Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh, Andrei Vasilevskiy.

What the Quant Says

102 points, 47-27-8, and a first-round exit for the third consecutive spring — this one in five games to Florida.

The club scored 294 goals — the most in the league — and conceded 219, the fourth-fewest. Underneath it: 50.2 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 13th, and 50.8 per cent of the expected goals, 11th. Tenth at creating chances at even strength and 17th at suppressing them.

The gap between an eleventh-best process and a first-and-fourth result is 17.7 goals of finishing and 17.5 goals of goaltending — thirty-five goals at five-on-five, and both of those figures are top six in the league.

That is the whole chapter and it is not the indictment it would be anywhere else. A club whose two best goalscorers take 57 and 59 per cent of their shot attempts from inside 20 feet is not converting at a rate it borrowed from somewhere. Neither is a goaltender with a career .9171 across 540 games. The finishing and the goaltending here are closer to being repeatable skills than they are on any other roster in this edition.

What is not repeatable is winning a regular season this way and then losing to Florida in five games, which has now happened in some form three years running.

The margins are getting thinner. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde were acquired from Seattle at the deadline and both re-signed. Nick Perbix left for Nashville, Luke Glendening for New Jersey and Michael Eyssimont for Boston, and Jakob Pelletier and Pontus Holmberg were signed — which is a bottom six being refilled at the cheapest available price for the fifth year running.

Victor Hedman was named captain in 2025 after Steven Stamkos left.

What the Scout Says

The best passer in hockey at 173 pounds, two 6-7 defencemen, and a fourth line that fights.

Nikita Kucherov is 6-0 and 173 and among the lightest forwards in the league. He does not forecheck, he does not win a puck on the wall, and none of the value has ever been in that half of the game. What he does instead is throw pucks into space a half-second before a teammate arrives, and he had 84 assists doing it.

Brandon Hagel is the counterweight and he is the best two-way forward in this chapter — 90 points, a plus-33, the 95th percentile of chances, 3 shorthanded goals and 58 penalty minutes. He is first in on the forecheck and he is genuinely unpleasant.

The blue line is enormous. Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244, Erik Cernak 6-4 and 230, and Emil Lilleberg took 105 penalty minutes in 76 games. Ryan McDonagh at 36 blocks everything and took 22 penalty minutes in a full season.

And the bottom six is heavy and cheap. Nick Paul is 6-4 and 234, Zemgus Girgensons forechecks harder than anybody here and scored twice in 82 games, and Yanni Gourde is 5-9 and took 52 penalty minutes in 57.

Who this names 6 of 14 forwards · 55% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Mitchell Chaffee, Conor Geekie, Zemgus Girgensons, Gage Goncalves, Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg, Jakob Pelletier.

What the Quant Says

294 goals — the most in the league — and 10th at creating chances at even strength at 2.556 expected goals per 60. At five-on-five the club scored 176 against an expectation of 158.3, 17.7 goals better, 6th in the league in finishing.

Nikita Kucherov had 121 points and 84 assists and won a second consecutive Art Ross Trophy. Brayden Point scored 42 goals, Jake Guentzel 41 and Brandon Hagel 35 with 90 points. Anthony Cirelli scored 27 and Nick Paul 22.

The conversion rates are the story and they are extraordinary. Brayden Point converted 22.2 per cent of 189 shots and Jake Guentzel 18.9 per cent of 217 — and both of them shoot from the paint. Guentzel takes 59 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and 9 per cent from beyond 40, which is the least perimeter profile of any forward in this edition; Point takes 57 per cent from inside 20 and 7 from beyond 40.

That is not luck in the way a distance shooter's hot season is luck. It is where they shoot from.

What the Scout Says

Two men who shoot from the blue paint and one who never shoots at all when a pass is available.

Jake Guentzel takes 59 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet and 9 per cent from beyond 40 — the least perimeter profile of any forward in this edition — and he does it at 5-11 and 176 pounds. Brayden Point takes 57 per cent from inside 20 and 7 per cent from beyond 40. Between them they scored 83 goals.

Nikita Kucherov's passing is the best in hockey and it is not close. He holds the puck until a defenceman is committed and then puts it behind him, and the 37 goals happen because a defence cannot commit to stopping the pass.

Brandon Hagel shoots from a median of 25 feet with 40 per cent from inside 20 and produced 90 points without a single power-play goal. Anthony Cirelli takes 48 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 and scored 27 while taking the hardest defensive assignment on the club.

Nick Paul at 6-4 and 234 is the size, and Nikita Kucherov aside, nobody here is a perimeter player.

Who this names 5 of 6 defencemen · 88% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: J.J. Moser.

What the Quant Says

219 goals against, 4th in the league, and 17th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.463 per 60. The structure is ordinary and the results are excellent, and the reason is in the crease.

Ryan McDonagh finished plus-43 at 35 — the best figure in the league — on 22 penalty minutes in 82 games. His ice conceded eight fewer goals than the chances predicted. Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 and finished plus-29, and his ice conceded five fewer than expectation.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 and had 66 points at 34 with 51 assists, which for a defenceman at that age is a season very few men have had. Darren Raddysh, undrafted, added 31 assists from a second pairing.

Emil Lilleberg took 105 penalty minutes in 76 games — the most of any defenceman in this edition — and his ice was eleven goals better than expected for.

What the Scout Says

Two of the largest defencemen in the league, the best plus-minus in hockey, and a third pair that fights.

Victor Hedman is 6-7 and 244 and clears the front of his own net, defends the rush with reach nobody can beat, and is not moved from anywhere. At 34 he had 51 assists. He walks the line on the power play and throws the puck to the far side before a killing box can rotate.

Ryan McDonagh took 22 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty minutes a night and finished plus-43. He blocks shots, clears his crease, and defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line, and the first pass out is short, early and almost never wrong.

Erik Cernak is 6-4 and 230 and among the heaviest hitters in the league — 50 penalty minutes, 367 in 441 career games, and a crease he clears by force. Under a heavy forecheck the exits are the weakest part of his game.

Darren Raddysh is undrafted and threw 31 assists on 82 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet. Emil Lilleberg took 105 penalty minutes and has one goal in 113 career games.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

Andrei Vasilevskiy went 38-20-5 with a .9207, a 2.18 average and 6 shutouts in 63 games, facing 1,716 shots. The club's goaltending came in 17.5 goals better than the chances faced, 4th in the league.

He had back surgery in 2023 and posted a .9004 the season after it, and there was a serious argument that the peak had gone. He answered it with a Vezina nomination. The rebound control is the specific skill — pucks go to the corners rather than to the slot — and it is the rarest thing a goaltender can do and the reason a heavy workload does not turn into a bad number.

Jonas Johansson went 9-6-3 with an .8953 in 19 games. He has a career .8901 across 80 games, and a club with genuine ambitions gave him nineteen starts because it could not afford anybody better.

What the Scout Says

A .9207 with 6 shutouts across 63 games, and 17.5 goals better than the chances faced.

How they were used

2024-25 · 79 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.