Tampa Bay Lightning

What the Quant Says

287 goals, 8th in the league, off the 10th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.812 per 60). The structure and the result agree almost exactly.

Steven Stamkos scored forty-two goals and took 106 points at 32 — a career high in his fourteenth season. Sixteen of the forty-two came on the power play.

Victor Hedman took eighty-five points from the blue line, the 3rd-largest total any defenceman produced. Nikita Kucherov took sixty-nine in forty-seven games.

Brayden Point scored twenty-eight in sixty-six games off the 6th-highest slot share of all 393 forwards. Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel each took twenty-five, Ross Colton twenty-two off a 12:48 shift.

Six twenty-goal forwards, plus twenty from Victor Hedman on the blue line, and the deepest of the six played fewer than thirteen minutes a night.

What the Scout Says

Steven Stamkos took 106 points at 32 and the shot chart says he did it the hard way. Thirty-six per cent of his attempts came from the slot — the 6th percentile among 393 forwards — off a 29-foot median at the 83rd. Forty-two goals from outside the paint at 17.4 per cent, on a 96.6 mph shot at the 92nd percentile.

Brayden Point is the exact opposite. Seventy-two and a half per cent of his attempts came from the slot, the 6th-highest of all 393, off an 18-foot median — and his shot is 85.4 mph at the 18th percentile. He scores from eighteen feet because he cannot score from thirty, and he gets to eighteen feet by sprinting more often than nine forwards in ten.

Corey Perry, at 37, has the 5th-highest slot share and the 3rd-shortest median shot of all 393 forwards, and nineteen goals off a 13:31 shift.

Nikita Kucherov's forty-seven games are the largest missing quantity in the chapter. Sixty-nine points in them is 1.47 a game against a career rate of 1.10.

And two goal totals should be read with the shooting percentage beside them. Brandon Hagel scored twenty-five at exactly 20.0 per cent — the 12th-highest of 393 — off the 25th-percentile shot rate, with a 23rd-percentile chance share and a minus-18. Vladislav Namestnikov scored sixteen at 17.6 per cent off the 40th-lowest shot rate in the league, against a career rate of 13.0.

What the Quant Says

233 goals against, 6th in the league, off the 12th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.552 per 60). The crease made up the difference: plus-11.7, 6th.

Victor Hedman played 25:05 a night, the 95th percentile among 202 defencemen, and took 55.5 per cent of the expected goals. Mikhail Sergachev 22:28 and 52.6 per cent.

Erik Cernak is the most useful file on the blue line and the least visible. A 78th-percentile chance share out of the 107th-hardest chair of 652 skaters, the 10th-fewest giveaways of 202 defencemen, and the 4th-most penalties drawn at the position.

Cal Foote took the 7th-smallest workload of the 202 and came out four points better in chances than in shots.

And the penalties are the leak. Zach Bogosian's minus-1.06 differential per 60 is the 2nd-worst of all 202 defencemen and Ian Cole, arriving from Carolina, has the worst.

What the Scout Says

Victor Hedman is the file and he has no soft edge in it. Eighty-five points, 25:05 a night, a 98th-percentile top speed at 6-7 and 244 pounds, a 101.2 mph shot, and 55.5 per cent of the expected goals. His ice finished within five goals of expectation in both directions across eighty-two games, which for a top-pair defenceman is unusual on its own.

Erik Cernak is the one worth arguing about. He took a 78th-percentile chance share out of the 107th-hardest chair of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts, gave the puck away the 10th-fewest times per 60 of 202 defencemen, drew the 4th-most penalties at the position, and hit at the 94th percentile. Thirteen points and fifty-five games are what comes back, and he has never played seventy in a season.

Mikhail Sergachev's twenty-two minutes and thirty-eight points are the second-largest workload and the second-largest total, at 24, and the shot chart is severe: seventy-six per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet, seven per cent from the slot, and a 4.7 per cent conversion.

The bottom of the blue line is where the penalties live. Zach Bogosian's minus-1.06 penalty differential per 60 is the 2nd-worst of all 202 defencemen, and he has the club's worst possession numbers out of a chair that is close to even. Cal Foote's 0.33 takeaways per 60 is the 2nd percentile.

Ian Cole arrives with the worst penalty ledger of any defenceman in the league and a 57.9 per cent attempt share — the 3rd-highest of the 202, produced in the 99th-percentile offensive-zone time on the best possession club in the East.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at plus-11.7 goals saved above expectation, from the most stable record in this batch of four clubs.

Andrei Vasilevskiy played sixty-three games at .9165 on 1,868 shots — the 5th-largest workload of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five, and 12th of the same 53 by save percentage.

Eight seasons and 11,039 career shots at .9192, with every single year between .9102 and .9253. A hundred and fifty-one points of total spread across eleven thousand shots.

Brian Elliott took the other nineteen games at .9121 across 489 shots, which reversed five consecutive declining seasons in Philadelphia — .9096, .9088, .9069, .8995, .8889.

He is 37 with 13,562 career shots at .9104, and nineteen good games behind a contender is what the job asked for.

What the Scout Says

Andrei Vasilevskiy's record is the least eventful thing in this book and that is the finding.

Eight seasons, 11,039 shots, a career .9192, and every single year between .9102 and .9253. A hundred and fifty-one points of spread across eleven thousand shots. The worst season of his career came at 21 across 646 shots; every year since has been .9165 or better.

Last season was .9165 across 1,868 shots — the 5th-largest workload of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games, and 12th among them by save percentage. Thirty-nine wins in sixty-three appearances.

The club rated 6th in goaltending at plus-11.7, in front of the 12th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength. The five-on-five ledger reads 149 goals against an expectation of 160.7 — twelve better than the model, spread across a season rather than concentrated in a stretch.

Brian Elliott's nineteen games at .9121 are the other half, and his career is the opposite shape. Fifteen seasons, 13,562 shots, a .9403 in 2011-12, and then five consecutive declining years in Philadelphia — .9096, .9088, .9069, .8995, .8889 — before 489 shots behind a contender put him back above .9100.

One goaltender with no variance and one with nothing but. The first is 28 and the second is 37, and the reason this crease rated 6th is that the first one played sixty-three of the eighty-two.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 7.317 expected goals per 60, over 5:13 a night — the 4th-largest workload. Elite in both halves, and the only unit in this chapter that is genuinely near the top of the league.

Victor Hedman ran the point at 3:35 a night, the 99th percentile among defencemen, and took forty-five per cent of his eighty-five points there.

Nikita Kucherov took 3:53, the 99th percentile among forwards, with forty-three per cent of his sixty-nine points on it. Steven Stamkos 3:43 and sixteen power-play goals, Brayden Point 3:36 and ten, Alex Killorn 3:13.

Five men above three minutes a night, four of them producing more than a third of their points there.

Below them there is nothing at all — Ross Colton scored one, Patrick Maroon three, and the rest of the roster none.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league at 7.317 expected goals per 60 over the 4th-largest workload. This is the one place Tampa Bay is unambiguously near the top, and it is concentrated in five men.

Victor Hedman 3:35 a night, the 99th percentile among defencemen, with forty-five per cent of eighty-five points there. Nikita Kucherov 3:53, the 99th percentile among forwards, with forty-three per cent of sixty-nine points. Steven Stamkos 3:43 and sixteen goals. Brayden Point 3:36 and ten, with thirty-eight per cent of his points on it. Alex Killorn 3:13.

Behind those five the unit stops. Mikhail Sergachev takes 1:31 and Corey Perry 1:43; nobody else on the roster is above 1:24, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Erik Cernak, Cal Foote and Zach Bogosian are all effectively at zero.

Five thirty-goal-equivalent power-play roles and no sixth option is a structure that works until one of the five is unavailable. Kucherov missed thirty-five games last season.

What the Quant Says

8th in the league at 5.968 expected goals against per 60, over 4:59 a night — the 12th-largest workload. Good and not exceptional, over more short-handed time than average.

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare takes 2:35 a night — the 3rd-most of all 393 forwards — at 37, with nineteen penalty minutes in eighty games.

Erik Cernak 2:49 and Ian Cole 2:30 on the blue line, Mikhail Sergachev 2:05, Victor Hedman 2:01. Nick Paul takes 2:08 among the forwards at the 95th percentile and Anthony Cirelli 2:06 at the 94th.

The unit is deep and the penalties feeding it are the problem. Patrick Maroon took 134 penalty minutes and the 7th-most penalties per 60 of all 393 forwards; Zach Bogosian and the arriving Ian Cole own the 2nd- and 1st-worst penalty differentials of 202 defencemen.

What the Scout Says

Eighth in the league over the 10th-largest short-handed workload, and the workload is the part worth attention.

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare takes 2:35 a night — the 3rd-most of all 393 forwards — at 37, on nineteen penalty minutes across eighty games and the 5th-fewest shots per 60 in the league. He is a pure specialist and the club used him as one.

Nick Paul 2:08 at the 95th percentile with the 13th-most takeaways of 393 forwards; Anthony Cirelli 2:06 at the 94th with the 17th-most. Erik Cernak 2:49 and Mikhail Sergachev 2:05 behind them.

And the club puts itself on the kill more than it should. Patrick Maroon took 2.15 penalties per 60 — the 7th-most of all 393 forwards — and 134 penalty minutes in eighty-one games. Zach Bogosian's differential is the 2nd-worst of 202 defencemen, Alex Killorn's the 11th percentile among forwards, and Ian Cole arrives with the worst at the position in hockey.

Four regulars in the bottom decile of their position for penalty differential is why a good kill was asked to work 4:59 a game.