St. Louis Blues

What the Quant Says

311 goals, 4th in the league, off the 17th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.556 per 60). The structure was middling and the finishing was second-best in hockey.

Ivan Barbashev scored twenty-six goals from 111 shots — 23.4 per cent, the 2nd-highest of all 393 forwards. Brayden Schenn scored twenty-four from 111 at 21.6 per cent, the 7th-highest. Two of the league's seven hottest shooters were on the same roster.

Vladimir Tarasenko took eighty-two points and 230 shots at 30, a career high. Robert Thomas took fifty-seven assists off 115 attempts and Jordan Kyrou seventy-five points off a 97th-percentile top speed.

Justin Faulk scored sixteen goals from the blue line off a 46-foot median at 9.6 per cent.

Pavel Buchnevich is the one forward whose ice moved everybody around him, and he has the club's only chance share above fifty-two.

What the Scout Says

Two men on this roster finished in the top seven of the entire league in shooting percentage and neither of them shoots often.

Ivan Barbashev took 5.00 shots per 60 — the 44th-fewest of 393 forwards — and scored twenty-six. Brayden Schenn took 6.04 per 60, the 27th percentile, and scored twenty-four. Two hundred and twenty-two attempts between them produced fifty goals.

Both shoot from the slot — sixty-two and fifty-seven per cent — and both have soft shots: 84.3 mph at the 13th percentile and 88.2 at the 36th. The location is real and repeatable; the conversion is not.

Vladimir Tarasenko is the opposite and the most durable piece of the attack. 10.88 shots per 60 is the 23rd-most of 393, at 14.8 per cent, and eighty-two points is a career high at 30 built on forty-eight assists rather than more shooting.

Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou are the two young files. Thomas took fifty-seven assists off the 54th-lowest shot rate in the league with the 14th-most takeaways; Kyrou took seventy-five points off the 97th-percentile top speed and the 3rd-fewest hits of all 393 forwards.

Pavel Buchnevich's 54.2 per cent chance share is the only figure on the roster above 52, and all nine of his recorded with-and-without partners were better beside him than apart — Tarasenko by eleven and a half points, Thomas by fourteen, Parayko by twelve and a half.

What the Quant Says

242 goals against, 11th in the league, off the 24th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.727 per 60). The result is eight places better than the structure and the crease is only a small part of the difference.

Colton Parayko played 23:34 a night — the largest workload on the club — out of the 92nd-lowest offensive-zone start share of 652 skaters, and took 44.2 per cent of the attempts, the 8th percentile.

Torey Krug started 64.4 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 20th-highest of 652, and came out below even in both possession columns.

Marco Scandella and Niko Mikkola took the 29th- and 24th-hardest chairs in the league. Nick Leddy has the 10th-fewest hits and 6th-fewest blocks of 202 defencemen at 21:25 a night and finished minus-30.

Robert Bortuzzo, on the 8th-smallest workload at the position, has the best chance share on the blue line.

What the Scout Says

This blue line was deployed at the two extremes and almost nothing in between.

Torey Krug started 64.4 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — the 20th-highest of 652 skaters — and Justin Faulk 58.8 per cent, the 76th-highest. At the other end Marco Scandella took the 29th-hardest chair in the league at 32.8 per cent, Niko Mikkola the 24th-hardest at 31.0, and Colton Parayko the 92nd-hardest at 40.2.

Nobody in between. Two men were handed the attacking zone and three were buried, and the club finished 26th in attempt share anyway.

What the soft chairs produced: Krug 48.3 per cent of the expected goals, Faulk 49.5. Both below even, from two of the eighty softest deployments in hockey.

What the hard chairs produced: Parayko 46.7, Mikkola 47.5, Scandella 44.9. Parayko and Scandella played 1,028 attempts as a pair and took 43.4 per cent of the expected goals together, against 48.7 and 46.6 apart — the pair was worse than either man alone.

Two individual extremes are worth naming. Colton Parayko's 102.0 mph shot is the hardest of all 192 defencemen the tracking measures and Justin Faulk's 101.5 the 6th-hardest; Niko Mikkola's 82.5 is the 2nd-softest. And Nick Leddy, at 21:25 a night, recorded the 10th-fewest hits and the 6th-fewest blocks of 202 defencemen and finished minus-30.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at plus-4.6 goals saved above expectation, and the man who earned it has left.

Ville Husso played forty games at .9191 — 7th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five — and has gone to Detroit.

Jordan Binnington played thirty-seven at .9013, which is 38th of the same 53, and his four full seasons read .9269, .9119, .9100 and .9013 — lower every year.

Thomas Greiss arrives from Detroit having gone .8907 across 842 shots, 52nd of the 53. Only one goaltender in the league was worse.

A club that finished 10th in goaltending is entering next season with the 38th-ranked save percentage and the 52nd.

What the Scout Says

The rating and the roster disagree completely, and the trade explains it.

St Louis finished 10th in the league in goaltending at plus-4.6 goals saved above expectation. Ville Husso produced it: forty games at .9191, 7th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five. He has gone to Detroit.

Jordan Binnington went .9013 across 1,135 shots, 38th of the same 53, and the trend is the point. His four full seasons read .9269 across 807 shots, .9119 across 1,430, .9100 across 1,200 and .9013 across 1,135 — 256 points of decline in a straight line, with the best figure coming off the smallest sample.

Thomas Greiss arrives from Detroit at .8907 across 842 shots, 52nd of fifty-three. His career is 9,534 shots at .9122 across thirteen seasons and nine of those years fall between .9084 and .9266, so last season is 215 points beneath his own record and the second-worst of thirteen.

The structure in front of them is not an alibi that works both ways. The skaters finished 26th in attempt share and 24th in expected goals against per 60, and the crease still came out plus-4.6 — because Husso was in it for forty games.

A 29-year-old declining every year and a 36-year-old coming off the second-worst season of his career, in front of the 24th-ranked chance suppression in the league. The 242 goals against will not stay 11th.

What the Quant Says

16th in the league at 6.864 expected goals per 60, over 4:50 a night — the 18th-largest workload. Middle of the league in both halves.

Torey Krug ran the point at 2:49 a night, the 89th percentile among defencemen, and took forty-four per cent of his points there — the 96th percentile.

Ryan O'Reilly scored nine of his twenty-one goals on it and Pavel Buchnevich eight of his thirty. Brandon Saad eight of twenty-four, Brayden Schenn seven of twenty-four.

Vladimir Tarasenko took 2:40 a night at the 76th percentile among forwards.

Nick Leddy took 1:49 at the 75th percentile among defencemen and produced twenty-five per cent of his points there off three goals in seventy-five games.

What the Scout Says

Sixteenth in the league on the 18th-largest workload. Precisely average, and on a club that finished 4th in goals that is worth stating plainly: the scoring was not a power-play phenomenon.

Torey Krug is the unit. 2:49 a night at the point is the 89th percentile among defencemen and forty-four per cent of his forty-three points came there, the 96th percentile. He is 5-9, took the 20th-softest chair in the league at even strength, and finished below fifty per cent of the expected goals out of it.

The tracking says something a reputation would not. A 21.2 mph top speed is the 16th percentile among defencemen and 0.4 sprints per 60 the 7th — the fewest of any defenceman on this roster. Nothing here measures edges or escapability, which is what a small offensive defenceman is usually praised for, and the record cannot settle it.

Among the forwards, Ryan O'Reilly's nine power-play goals lead the club and Pavel Buchnevich's eight follow. Vladimir Tarasenko took the most ice at 2:40.

Nick Leddy's twenty-five per cent power-play point share off 1:49 a night is the second-largest defenceman's share on the club, and it came with three goals in seventy-five games.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 6.049 expected goals against per 60, over 4:33 a night — the 23rd-largest workload. This is comfortably the best unit on the roster and the only column where the club is above its own structure.

Ryan O'Reilly takes 1:52 a night at the 87th percentile among forwards, with twelve penalty minutes in seventy-eight games.

Marco Scandella 2:11 and Robert Bortuzzo 2:08 among the defencemen, both on the 66th percentile or better. Pavel Buchnevich 1:35 at the 76th percentile among forwards, Ivan Barbashev 1:04.

Torey Krug takes ten seconds a night — the 7th percentile — which for the club's power-play quarterback is a deliberate exemption.

And the penalties themselves are the problem. Niko Mikkola's minus-1.05 penalty differential per 60 is the 3rd-worst of all 202 defencemen and Krug's minus-0.775 the 9th-worst.

What the Scout Says

Seventh in the league at 6.049 expected goals against per 60, on the 23rd-largest workload — the only unit where this club is meaningfully above the league.

Ryan O'Reilly is the centrepiece. 1:52 a night is the 87th percentile among forwards, and he did it while taking twelve penalty minutes in seventy-eight games. His penalty differential of plus-0.77 per 60 is the 15th-best of all 393 forwards.

Marco Scandella and Robert Bortuzzo take the defensive half at 2:11 and 2:08. Bortuzzo blocks 5.86 shots per 60 at the 90th percentile on the 8th-smallest workload at the position.

And the penalties taken are where the club gives it back. Niko Mikkola's 1.70 penalties per 60 is the 2nd-most of all 202 defencemen and his differential of minus-1.05 the 3rd-worst of the 202. Torey Krug's minus-0.775 is the 9th-worst.

Fifty-five penalty minutes from Mikkola in fifty-four games and forty-eight from Krug in sixty-four, on a club that already spent 4:33 a game short-handed.