Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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77

Niko Mikkola

St. Louis Blues Defense

The worst penalty differential of all 202 defencemen, and the 2nd-softest shot of 192.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20STL5011+30000100.014:22
2020-21STL30123-1111000224.514:31
2021-22STL5431013-655010585.216:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8941317-1466010904.416:00

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

54 games, 3 goals and 10 assists at 16:59 a night, minus-6, fifty-five penalty minutes, 58 shots. One of the three came short-handed. Hundred-and-twenty-ninth overall in 2015 by St Louis — the fifth round — three seasons, 89 games, 17 points.

The Finesse Game

43.8 per cent of the attempts is the 6th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games, and 47.5 per cent of the expected goals the 31st.

The gap between those two is the file. He is on the wrong end of the shot count badly and much less so on the chance count, which is what a big defenceman clearing the front of the net looks like in the columns.

And the chair is genuinely hard. 31.0 per cent offensive-zone starts is the 24th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — 130 shifts starting in the attacking end against 289 in his own.

Twenty-two per cent of his attempts came from inside the slot, the 98th percentile among defencemen, at 6-6 and 204 pounds.

0.46 takeaways per 60 is the 7th percentile. His ice went 37-47 against an expectation of 31.04-34.33 — six more in front and thirteen more against.

The Physical Game

1.70 penalties taken per 60 is the 2nd-most of all 202 defencemen, and the net of minus-1.05 is the 3rd-worst of the 202.

Fifty-five penalty minutes in fifty-four games at seventeen minutes a night. On a club that spent 4:33 a game short-handed, this is the most expensive habit on the roster.

7.13 hits per 60 is the 86th percentile and 5.30 blocks the 81st, so the penalties are the by-product of a game the club otherwise wants.

The Intangibles

His shot is 82.5 mph, the 2nd-softest of the 192 defencemen the tracking measures — twenty miles an hour behind Colton Parayko on the same blue line.

9.09 miles per 60 is the 98th percentile and 3.3 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 91st, against a 22.4 mph top speed at the 74th. He covers more ground per minute than almost any defenceman in the league.

He is 26 with eighty-nine NHL games. The chair, the hitting, the blocks, the ground covered and the front of the net are five real things. The third-worst penalty ledger at the position in hockey and the second-softest shot are the two that keep him a third pair, and both are correctable in a way that possession numbers are not.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    21.6% of his attempts in the slot, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    31% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 0th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.70 penalties taken per 60 is the 2nd-most of all 202 defencemen, and the net of minus-1.05 is the 3rd-worst of the 202.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Twenty-two per cent of his attempts came from inside the slot, the 98th percentile among defencemen, at 6-6 and 204 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 826 minutes

Expected goals
47.5%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.8%
9th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 47 against. Expected: 31.0 and 34.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
35th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 54 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
83rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.5 mph
14th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 826 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.5% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
826 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Parayko47.7%47.1%46.3%
Ryan O'Reilly46.0%48.2%50.1%
Brandon Saad43.2%49.5%48.2%

47.7% together, 47.1% for him apart and 46.3% for Parayko apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

74 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 16% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 58% from beyond forty.