Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Robert Thomas

St. Louis Blues Center

Fifty-seven assists off 115 shots — the 54th-lowest shot rate of 393 forwards, and the 14th-most takeaways.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19STL7092433-2143008011.313:04
2019-20STL66103242+9181028711.514:34
2020-21STL333912+1100012213.613:36
2021-22STL72205777+171632611517.418:46
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—24142122164+255872930413.815:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games, 20 goals and 57 assists at 18:46 a night, plus-17, sixteen penalty minutes, 115 shots. Three of the twenty came on the power play and two short-handed. Twentieth overall in 2017 by St Louis, four seasons, 241 games, 164 points.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-seven of his seventy-seven points are assists, off 5.10 shots per 60 — the 54th-lowest of the 393 forwards who played forty games.

Twenty goals came out of 115 attempts at 17.4 per cent, the 91st percentile, from a 22-foot median with sixty-three per cent of them from the slot at the 89th. He does not shoot and when he does he is standing in the right place.

3.30 even-strength points per 60 is the 97th percentile — a hundredth of a point behind Vladimir Tarasenko and second-best on the club.

2.66 takeaways per 60 is the 14th-most of the 393, against 2.22 giveaways at the 85th percentile. A great deal happens on his stick in both directions.

51.9 per cent of the expected goals is the 66th percentile and 49.2 per cent of the attempts the 42nd, out of 56.3 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 139th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. His ice went 72-51 against an expectation of 50.32-46.67 — twenty-two more goals in front than the model asked, which on a club that finished 2nd in the league in finishing is the house style.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 207 pounds, and 0.58 hits per 60 is the 2nd percentile among forwards.

Sixteen penalty minutes in seventy-two games, and 0.36 penalties taken per 60 at the 16th percentile. He is almost never in the box and almost never in a collision.

The Intangibles

10.28 miles per 60 is the 94th percentile among forwards against a 22.2 mph top speed at the 34th and 7.4 bursts per 60 at the 72nd.

A great deal of skating and not much of it fast. That is a fair description of a centre with fifty-seven assists and 115 shots, and the tracking is agreeing with the scoresheet rather than adding to it.

He is 23 and the seventy-seven points are a career high by thirty-five. Nothing in the record establishes whether this is a step or a level — one season at this rate is one season. What it does establish is a passer with elite even-strength production, elite takeaways and the shot volume of a fourth-liner.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Fifty-seven of his seventy-seven points are assists, off 5.10 shots per 60 — the 54th-lowest of the 393 forwards who played forty games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,053 minutes

Expected goals
51.9%
70th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.2%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 72 for, 51 against. Expected: 50.3 and 46.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
70th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 72 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
52nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.32 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.4 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1053 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.9% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,053 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vladimir Tarasenko51.1%53.8%41.6%
Pavel Buchnevich59.4%45.2%49.0%
Justin Faulk49.1%54.0%49.8%

51.1% together, 53.8% for him apart and 41.6% for Tarasenko apart. Tarasenko was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Tarasenko than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

166 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.