St. Louis Blues

What the Quant Says

239 goals, 24th in the league, on the 28th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.338 expected goals per 60.

At five-on-five St. Louis took 45.3 per cent of the shot attempts, 30th, and 44.8 per cent of the expected goals, 30th. Only two clubs in hockey held the puck less, and it started 46.4 per cent of its shifts in the offensive zone, the fifth-lowest share in the league.

And it scored 151 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 150.9 — a residual of plus-0.1, 19th in the league. Exactly what the chances were worth, and the chances were poor.

Robert Thomas had 26 goals and 60 assists for 86 points, Jordan Kyrou scored 31, Pavel Buchnevich 27 with 63 points, Jake Neighbours 27 at 21 and Brandon Saad 26 with 7 game-winners.

Jake Neighbours shot 18.6 per cent and Brandon Saad 18.1 per cent — two men above eighteen on the same club, on a club that took the thirtieth-largest share of the chances in hockey.

What the Scout Says

Two centres with 153 points between them, and two wingers who shot better than eighteen per cent.

Robert Thomas is 6-0 and 207 and had 26 goals and 60 assists, taking 242 attempts at a median of 27 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty, 171 of those on goal, converted at 15.3 per cent against a career 14.83. He holds the puck below the goal line longer than anybody on the club and has 229 career assists in 396 games.

Jordan Kyrou is 6-1 and 189 and took 361 attempts — the most on the club — at a median of 32 feet, 246 of them on goal, and scored 31. Pavel Buchnevich took 43 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet and has a career shooting rate of 14.63 per cent across 1,107 shots.

Jake Neighbours is 22 and his median attempt was 14 feet, with 59 per cent from inside twenty — the eighth-closest forward chart in this edition. He shot 18.6 per cent. Brandon Saad shot 18.1 per cent and scored 7 game-winners. Alexey Toropchenko is 6-6 and 225 and put 61 per cent of his attempts inside twenty feet.

What the Quant Says

St. Louis allowed 2.882 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 28th in the league, and conceded 250 goals, 14th. Fourteen places between what it gave up and what went in, and the distance is a crease.

At five-on-five it conceded 168 goals against an expectation of 186 — eighteen fewer than the shots called for, and the club's goaltending came in 18.0 goals better than the chances it faced, 5th in the league.

Colton Parayko is 6-6 and 228 and played all 82 at 23:52, taking 1,648 minutes at five-on-five — more than anybody in this edition. His ice went 61-71 against an expectation of 59.71-74.73.

Nick Leddy played all 82 at 22:22 and finished plus-14, with his ice at 61-60 against 60.29-74.93 — fifteen goals of goaltending above what the shots called for. Justin Faulk had 2 goals and 28 assists in 60 games at 21:58. Scott Perunovich had 17 assists and no goals in 54 games.

Ryan Suter arrives from Dallas with 82 games at 18:56 and a plus-14, in his nineteenth season.

What the Scout Says

The most five-on-five ice in the edition, and 3,357 career games across Suter, Leddy and Faulk.

Colton Parayko is 6-6 and 228 and played all 82 at 23:52, taking more five-on-five minutes than anybody in this edition. He defends with reach rather than contact — 190 career penalty minutes in 659 games — and at that size the stick takes away the cross-ice pass before it is thrown.

Ryan Suter is 6-1 and 201, 39, and has played 1,444 games, the most of anybody in this edition, with 576 career assists and a career plus-120. Nick Leddy is 6-0 and 205 with 1,011 games and 338 career assists. Justin Faulk is 6-0 and 208 with 902 games, and scored 2 goals on 132 shots last season — a 1.52 per cent rate, the second-lowest of anybody in this edition who shot a hundred times.

Scott Perunovich is 5-10 and 175 and has 23 assists and no goals in 73 career games — the second-longest goalless run in this edition. Matthew Kessel is 6-3 and played 39 games at 16:48, and Tyler Tucker took 42 penalty minutes in 26 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 18.0 goals better than the chances it faced, 5th in the league. On a club that finished twenty-eighth at chance suppression, this is the entire reason the season looked respectable.

Jordan Binnington went 28-21-5 with a .9127 and a 2.84 in 57 games, facing 1,786 shots, with 3 shutouts. He is 31, a third-round pick, and his career line across 280 games is a .9077. The .9127 is his best since 2018-19.

Joel Hofer went 15-12-1 with a .9133 and a 2.65 in 30 games, facing 830 shots. He is 24, a fourth-round pick, and had played 8 NHL games before this season. His .9133 was marginally better than the starter's.

Two goaltenders inside a point of each other, both above .9125, on a club that gave up the seventh-most attempts in hockey. That is a genuine tandem and it was worth eighteen goals.

What the Scout Says

The fifth-best goaltending in the league, from a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick.

Jordan Binnington is 6-2 and 172 — the second-lightest goaltender in this edition — and went 28-21-5 with a .9127. He is quick and small and plays an aggressive, angular game that depends on reading a play before it develops; when it goes wrong it goes wrong badly, and 280 career games at a .9077 is the honest average of a man who is either excellent or awful.

Joel Hofer is 6-5 and 193 and went 15-12-1 with a .9133 in 30 games. He is three inches taller and twenty-one pounds heavier than his partner and plays nothing like him: deep, square, patient, taking up net rather than cutting angles. He had played 8 NHL games before last season.

Two goaltenders with opposite methods and identical results, worth eighteen goals between them on a club that gave up the seventh-most attempts in hockey. Nothing else on this roster was worth as much.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at 6.721 expected goals per 60, over 5:22 a night, the seventh-most power-play time of any club. Plenty of ice, a middling rate on it.

Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours each scored 8 power-play goals, Brandon Saad 5, Brayden Schenn 4, Oskar Sundqvist 3 and Justin Faulk 1.

Brayden Schenn has 90 career power-play goals in 940 games, the most on the club by a distance, and Justin Faulk 46 in 902. Pavel Buchnevich has 42 in 517 and Brandon Saad 36 in 863.

Four men tied on 8 is what a unit without a designated shooter looks like. Schenn's 90 career power-play goals are the reason the club keeps giving him the ice; four last season is the reason it should stop.

What the Scout Says

The tenth-most power-play time in hockey and an eighteenth-place rate, split four ways.

Brayden Schenn has 90 career power-play goals in 940 games, more than twice the total of anybody else here. He is 6-1 and 200, plays the net front, and scored 4 last season.

Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours each scored 8. Buchnevich has 42 career power-play goals in 517 games and the best shooting rate on the roster; Thomas is the distributor and had 60 assists; Neighbours is 21 and stands where Schenn used to.

Justin Faulk has 46 career power-play goals in 902 games and runs the point at 6-0 and 208. Colton Parayko has 16 in 659 and takes the other unit.

Four men on eight goals and nobody above it. The parts are here — a net-front man, a shooter, a passer and a point — and eighteenth in the league is what they have produced with them.

What the Quant Says

24th in the league at 7.864 expected goals against per 60, over 4:35 a night — the fourth-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club in hockey.

A disciplined club with a below-average kill, which is a better problem than the reverse.

Alexey Toropchenko, Alexandre Texier, Radek Faksa and Pavel Buchnevich each scored 2 shorthanded goals and Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy, Kasperi Kapanen, Oskar Sundqvist and Mathieu Joseph each scored one.

Radek Faksa has 8 career shorthanded goals in 638 games and 356 penalty minutes, and arrives from Dallas to do exactly this. Pavel Buchnevich has 7 in 517 and Kasperi Kapanen 7 in 460. Mathieu Joseph has 5 in 360 and Ryan Suter 4 in 1,444.

Fourteen shorthanded goals from ten different men is a club that attacks a man down. The rate says it also gives up too much doing it.

What the Scout Says

The fourth-fewest shorthanded minutes in the league, and a twenty-fourth-place rate on them.

Radek Faksa is 6-3 and 216, was thirteenth overall in 2012, and has 8 career shorthanded goals in 638 games on 356 penalty minutes. He wins defensive-zone pucks with his frame and has spent nine seasons doing nothing else.

Alexey Toropchenko is 6-6 and 225 and scored 2 shorthanded goals, which at that size is a man simply outreaching people at the blue line. Alexandre Texier scored 2 and has 3 in 201 career games.

Pavel Buchnevich has 7 career shorthanded goals in 517 games and Kasperi Kapanen 7 in 460. Mathieu Joseph has 5 in 360 and arrives from Ottawa. Ryan Suter has 4 in 1,444 games and nineteen seasons of the assignment.

Ten different men scored shorthanded last season. A club that spends the fourth-fewest minutes a man down and kills at the twenty-fourth-best rate is wasting its discipline.