Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

49

Ivan Barbashev

St. Louis Blues Left Wing

The 2nd-highest shooting percentage of all 393 forwards, out of the 4th-percentile attempt share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17STL305712+520012025.011:47
2017-18STL537613-140014515.612:12
2018-19STL80141226-4170216023.311:31
2019-20STL69111526+4230227514.713:27
2020-21STL385712+561014311.613:21
2021-22STL81263460+44041211123.416:26
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3516881149+139255835419.213:21

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 26 goals and 34 assists at 16:26 a night, plus-4, forty penalty minutes, 111 shots. Four of the twenty-six came on the power play and one short-handed. Thirty-third overall in 2014 by St Louis — the second round — six seasons, 351 games, 149 points.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-six goals from 111 shots is 23.4 per cent, the 2nd-highest of all 393 forwards who played forty games. Only Marcus Foligno converted at a higher rate, and Brayden Schenn on the same club was 7th.

Sixty-two per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 20-foot median, the 85th percentile among forwards, at 6-0 and 203 pounds.

5.00 shots per 60 is the 11th percentile — the 44th-fewest of the 393 — so the goals came from standing in the right place a hundred and eleven times, not from volume.

And 43.2 per cent of the attempts is the 4th percentile, 43.2 per cent of the expected goals the 7th. Twenty-six goals out of the bottom five per cent of the league in both possession columns.

48.1 per cent offensive-zone starts is the 262nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — near enough to even that it does not explain the shares.

Beside Colton Parayko he took 37.0 per cent of the expected goals across 781 attempts, which is the worst pair figure on the club.

The Physical Game

7.21 hits per 60 is the 77th percentile and forty penalty minutes came out of eighty-one games.

1.26 blocks per 60 is the 28th percentile.

The Intangibles

21.7 mph is the 12th percentile among forwards and 2.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 14th, against 9.48 miles per 60 at the 34th.

His shot is 84.3 mph, the 13th percentile. Slow, rarely at speed, and a soft shot — and twenty-six goals.

He is 26, with 149 points in 351 games, and the sixty is a career high by thirty-four. The slot share and the hitting are real and repeatable. A career shooting rate of 19.2 per cent — sixty-eight goals from 354 attempts across six seasons — is a small body of shots making a large claim, and a 4th-percentile shot share is the thing that will still be there when the conversion moves.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Sixty-two per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 20-foot median, the 85th percentile among forwards, at 6-0 and 203 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,134 minutes

Expected goals
43.2%
11th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.2%
7th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 59 against. Expected: 42.8 and 56.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
70th
Numbers
11th

The report ranks him 59 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
31st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.69 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.3 mph
36th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1134 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.2% — 5.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,134 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Parayko37.0%47.0%50.7%
Justin Faulk45.6%41.9%51.1%
Brayden Schenn41.0%44.1%44.8%

37.0% together, 47.0% for him apart and 50.7% for Parayko apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

146 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 53% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.