Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
← 2023-24 edition

St. Louis Blues

Central Division, Western Conference · 24 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 206 for, 229 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five
45.9% 27th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five
45.8% 27th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty
5.86 32nd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty
7.11 15th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth
+25.9 2nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth
-5.5 19th of 32

St. Louis Blues scored 25.9 more goals than their chances were worth — 26 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age
28.1
weighted by points
From 33 and up
0.7%
of skater points
From under 26
26.5%
of skater points
Homegrown
34.3%
drafted by this club
Continuity
77.2%
of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Twenty-seventh in shot-attempt share and second in finishing — plus-25.9 at five-on-five, and eighty-one points to show for it.

Who this names 8 of 24 on the roster · 41% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Nikita Alexandrov, Jordan Binnington, Sammy Blais, Robert Bortuzzo, Justin Faulk, Joel Hofer, Torey Krug, Nick Leddy, Jake Neighbours, Calle Rosen, Brandon Saad, Marco Scandella, Brayden Schenn, Alexey Toropchenko, Tyler Tucker, Nathan Walker.

What the Quant Says

37-38-7, 81 points, 23rd in the league and sixth in the Central.

263 goals for, 16th. 301 against, 27th. Twenty-seventh in shot-attempt share, 27th in chance share, 27th at creating chances at even strength, 26th at suppressing them, 27th on the power play and 23rd on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 180 goals scored against 154.1 expected, and 188 conceded against 182.5. The finishing was 2nd in the league at plus-25.9 and the goaltending 19th at minus-5.5.

That is a club playing like the twenty-seventh-best team in hockey and scoring like the sixteenth, and the twenty-six goals of finishing that made the difference are the least repeatable thing in this book. Pavel Buchnevich shot 21.14 per cent, the third-highest figure in the league.

Jordan Kyrou scored 37 goals and finished minus-38. Colton Parayko took 93 shots on goal from the point and scored none.

Kevin Hayes, Oskar Sundqvist, Kasperi Kapanen and Jakub Vrana arrive. Ryan O'Reilly, Ivan Barbashev, Vladimir Tarasenko, Niko Mikkola, Tyler Pitlick and Thomas Greiss do not.

Six regulars have left in a year, including a Conn Smythe winner and a two-time forty-goal scorer, and what has come back is four forwards in their late twenties. The underlying play was twenty-seventh; the summer has not obviously moved it.

What the Scout Says

Second in the league at finishing and twenty-seventh at making chances.

St. Louis outscored its five-on-five chances by 25.9 goals, second in the league, on the 27th-best rate of chance creation and the 26th-best rate of suppression. Pavel Buchnevich shot 21.14 per cent, third in the league.

This is a club whose record was borrowed and whose play was poor at both ends. The young forwards are real; nothing behind them is.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 22 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2022-23.

59

Nikita Alexandrov

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 267 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · St. Louis Blues

Twenty-eight games at nine minutes, and the second percentile of shot speed.
50

Jordan Binnington

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Binnington did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · St. Louis Blues

An .8938 behind the sixth-worst chance share in the league, and a .9269 four years ago that will not stop being quoted.
SB

Sammy Blais

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

The slowest measured top speed of any forward in this chapter, and a fifteen-goal swing in his favour.
41

Robert Bortuzzo

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 462 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

484 penalty minutes in 533 games, and twenty goals in twelve seasons.
89

Pavel Buchnevich

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

Twenty-six goals on a hundred and twenty-three shots, and the third-highest shooting percentage in the league.
72

Justin Faulk

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

A hundred and two shots on goal from beyond forty feet, two goals, and fifty points anyway.
13

Kevin Hayes

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · St. Louis Blues

Fifty-four points, a minus-22, and the fifth percentile of top speed.
30

Joel Hofer

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Hofer did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · St. Louis Blues

Six-foot-five, eight NHL games in two seasons, and a .9050 in six of them.
42

Kasperi Kapanen

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · St. Louis Blues

The 91st percentile of sprints, thirty shots inside twenty feet, and nine goals from them.
47

Torey Krug

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

Five-foot-nine, undrafted, and the highest attacking-zone start share of any defenceman in this book.
25

Jordan Kyrou

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · St. Louis Blues

Thirty-seven goals and a minus-38, and a hundred and thirty-eight shots from the mid-slot.
4

Nick Leddy

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

Nine hundred and twenty-nine games, seventy goals, and forty-four shots from the point that produced none.
63

Jake Neighbours

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 492 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

Twenty-one years old, forty-three games, and a minus-19 out of neutral zone starts.
55

Colton Parayko

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

Ninety-three shots on goal from beyond forty feet, a 99 mph shot, and not one goal.
43

Calle Rosen

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

Eight goals in forty-nine games from a third-pair defenceman, and a plus-19 the chances say should have been nothing.
20

Brandon Saad

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

Nineteen goals at a nineteen-foot median, and 227 for a career nobody talks about.
6

Marco Scandella

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 304 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

Thirty-six attacking draws against a hundred and twenty defensive ones, in twenty games.
10

Brayden Schenn

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · St. Louis Blues

Sixty-five points and a minus-27, at the twelfth percentile of offensive-zone ice time.
70

Oskar Sundqvist

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · St. Louis Blues

A fifteen-foot median, forty-three shots from inside twenty, and the sixth percentile of top speed.
18

Robert Thomas

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · St. Louis Blues

Forty-seven assists in seventy-three games, and 169 of them in a 314-game career.
13

Alexey Toropchenko

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · St. Louis Blues

Six-foot-six at the 95th percentile of top speed, which almost nobody in this book manages.
75

Tyler Tucker

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 368 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · St. Louis Blues

A seventh-round pick, twenty-six games, and thirty-one penalty minutes in them.
19

Jakub Vrana

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 303 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

Eleven goals in twenty-five games, and thirty-seven per cent from inside twenty feet.
26

Nathan Walker

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · St. Louis Blues

A 1st-percentile chance share, and a plus-10 out of it.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.

Forwards

First line

C Jordan Kyrou 1135m
C Robert Thomas 57%
L Pavel Buchnevich 22%

Second line

C Brayden Schenn 1177m
L Brandon Saad 33%
C Ivan Barbashev now VGK 28%

Third line

R Alexey Toropchenko 749m
C Tyler Pitlick now NYR 50%
L Nathan Walker 37%

Fourth line

L Josh Leivo off the roster 572m
C Ryan O'Reilly now NSH 40%
L Jake Neighbours 19%

Defence

First pair

D Colton Parayko 1577m
D Nick Leddy 63%

Second pair

D Justin Faulk 1528m
D Torey Krug 40%

Third pair

D Niko Mikkola now FLA 727m
D Robert Bortuzzo 26%

Goaltending

By games played

G Jordan Binnington 61 GP
G Thomas Greiss off the roster 21 GP
G Joel Hofer 6 GP