Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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10

Klim Kostin

Edmonton Oilers Center

Six foot four and 232 pounds, forty games, and nine points.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20STL4101+10000520.08:32
2020-21STL2011-100000—13:48
2021-22STL40459-3230013112.99:01
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—465611-3230013613.99:11

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 5 assists in 40 games for St Louis — 9 points, a minus-3 and 23 penalty minutes at 9:01 a night.

Forty games but only 362 minutes at five-on-five is short of the 500 this book requires, so there is no peer group and the figures are raw. 47.0 per cent of the expected goals across six hours. His ice went 13-16 against an expectation of 12.96-14.63.

Six hours is a fortnight. Nothing in this section is a season.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-one shots in forty games, four of which went in. The median travels 29 feet and only 30 per cent came from inside twenty — for a 232-pound forward that is the wrong chart, and it is the most useful thing the raw numbers say.

No power-play time. He has no power-play goals in 46 NHL games.

86.9 mph off the stick, which is soft, on a sample too small to be sure it is him.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 232 — the heaviest skater in this chapter by fourteen pounds.

1.46 miles a game at nine minutes a night, and a 22.5 mph top speed. Twenty-three penalty minutes in forty games.

39.6 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, which is low and belongs mostly to the fourth line he played on.

The Intangibles

Thirty-first overall in 2017, and 46 NHL games at 23 across three seasons — six, forty and nothing before that.

A first-round pick who is 23 and has played forty NHL games is at the point where the next season decides it. He is 6-4 and 232 with a shot chart from thirty feet, which is a contradiction the club will want resolved.

Edmonton has no obvious room for him in a top nine and every reason to look at a fourth-line winger that size. Nothing in this file argues either way and it is honest to say so.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 362 minutes

Expected goals
47%
32nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.4%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 16 against. Expected: 13.0 and 14.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
32nd

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 40 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
70th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.88 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.46 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.9 mph
48th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with STL · 362 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.0% — 1.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 362 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tyler Bozak46.7%47.2%45.8%
Colton Parayko44.5%48.4%46.9%
Justin Faulk46.5%47.2%49.8%

46.7% together, 47.2% for him apart and 45.8% for Bozak apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

44 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.