Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

6

Marco Scandella

St. Louis Blues Defense

The 29th-hardest chair of 652 skaters and the 4th-percentile attempt share out of it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11MIN20022-92000130.014:58
2011-12MIN633912-2219101773.921:47
2012-13MIN6101-14000714.314:26
2013-14MIN7631417+1020001803.818:49
2014-15MIN64111223+8561041129.821:43
2015-16MIN7351621+6222001264.020:42
2016-17MIN714913-225000884.518:20
2017-18BUF8251722-15370011383.623:19
2018-19BUF636713-1326001837.217:37
2019-20BUF/MTL/STL624913+1420000775.217:35
2020-21STL49369+1424001555.519:57
2021-22STL7031114+1718000764.018:08
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—69948112160+72734099325.119:40

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

70 games, 3 goals and 11 assists at 18:08 a night, plus-17, eighteen penalty minutes, 76 shots. None of the fourteen points came on the power play. Fifty-fifth overall in 2008 by Minnesota — the second round — twelve seasons, 699 games, 160 points.

The Finesse Game

He started 32.8 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — 207 against 424 — the 29th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

Out of it he took 43.6 per cent of the attempts, the 4th percentile among 202 defencemen, and 44.9 per cent of the expected goals, the 11th.

The chair explains a great deal of that and not all of it. Colton Parayko took a chair almost as hard — 40.2 per cent, the 92nd-lowest — and finished at 46.7 per cent of the chances. They played 1,028 attempts together and the pair took 43.4 per cent; apart from each other Parayko was at 48.7 and Scandella at 46.6. The pair was worse than either man alone.

3.59 shots per 60 is the 28th percentile at 3.9 per cent, from a 46-foot median with seventeen per cent of his attempts from the slot at the 88th.

0.09 penalties drawn per 60 is the 2nd percentile — he is almost never fouled.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 212 pounds, 5.01 hits per 60 at the 62nd percentile and 3.31 blocks at the 22nd.

Eighteen penalty minutes in seventy games is a clean year for a defensive-zone defenceman.

The Intangibles

21.4 mph is the 23rd percentile and 1.2 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 40th, against 8.66 miles per 60 at the 72nd.

Slow, rarely at speed, and a lot of ground covered at eighteen minutes a night — which is the profile of a man defending rather than transporting.

His shot is 98.1 mph, the 81st percentile, and it produced three goals from seventy-six attempts.

He is 32, with 160 points in 699 games across twelve seasons. Only Niko Mikkola started fewer shifts in the attacking end on this club, and Mikkola played sixteen fewer games of it. A 4th-percentile shot share and a pair number worse than either half is what the record says came back.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    33% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He started 32.8 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — 207 against 424 — the 29th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,112 minutes

Expected goals
44.9%
17th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.6%
8th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 45 against. Expected: 41.4 and 50.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
17th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
43rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.37 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.62 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.1 mph
87th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1112 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.9% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,112 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Parayko43.4%46.6%48.7%
Ryan O'Reilly43.8%45.3%51.4%
David Perron37.6%47.5%55.7%

43.4% together, 46.6% for him apart and 48.7% for Parayko apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

104 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 64% from beyond forty.