Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

89

Pavel Buchnevich

St. Louis Blues Left Wing

Nine team-mates have a recorded with-and-without line beside him and all nine took a better share of the expected goals with him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYR4181220+6131005514.513:16
2017-18NYR74142943-32050413610.315:01
2018-19NYR64211738-101370111917.615:10
2019-20NYR68163046+22440114810.816:56
2020-21NYR54202848+124213212016.718:44
2021-22STL73304676+293482319915.118:18
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—374109162271+361462651177714.016:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

73 games, 30 goals and 46 assists at 18:18 a night, plus-29, thirty-four penalty minutes, 199 shots. Eight of the thirty came on the power play and two short-handed. Seventy-fifth overall in 2013 by the Rangers — the third round — six seasons, 374 games, 271 points.

The Finesse Game

54.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 79th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games, and it is the best figure on this roster by nearly two full points.

The with-and-without file is the report. Nine team-mates have a recorded line beside him and all nine took a better share of the expected goals with him than in the minutes they played apart from him. Vladimir Tarasenko 54.4 with against 42.8 apart. Robert Thomas 59.4 against 45.2. Colton Parayko 56.4 against 43.8. Robert Bortuzzo 59.9 against 46.5. Niko Mikkola 54.4 against 45.1. Ivan Barbashev 49.2 against 41.4. Justin Faulk 52.3 against 48.4. Torey Krug 49.9 against 47.7. Scott Perunovich 53.0 against 46.0.

Six of the nine gaps are larger than eight points and the smallest is two. On a club that finished 26th in the league in attempt share, one forward moved the chance ledger for everybody he stood beside.

8.94 shots per 60 is the 76th percentile at 15.1 per cent, from a 26-foot median with forty-five per cent from the slot. 3.01 even-strength points per 60 is the 94th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196 pounds, and thirty-four penalty minutes in seventy-three games.

0.67 blocks per 60 is the 4th percentile among forwards and 2.56 hits the 30th. He does none of it and the club rated 9th on the penalty kill anyway, where he took 1:35 a night at the 76th percentile.

The Intangibles

22.7 mph is the 70th percentile and 9.67 miles per 60 the 52nd, against 3.3 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 24th. Ordinary top speed, ordinary ground covered, and he almost never opens up.

Nothing here measures his hands or where he chooses to be, and the with-and-without numbers are the closest the record comes to it.

He is 27, in his second season out of New York, and the seventy-six points are a career high by twenty-eight. A club that scored 311 goals off the 26th-best possession in hockey had exactly one forward whose ice made everyone around him better, and the file names him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 46.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +8.2, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,036 minutes

Expected goals
54.2%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.7%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 40 against. Expected: 49.0 and 41.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
91st
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 73 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.01 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.95 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.6 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1036 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.2% — 6.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,036 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vladimir Tarasenko54.4%54.1%42.8%
Robert Thomas59.4%49.0%45.2%
Justin Faulk52.3%55.4%48.4%

54.4% together, 54.1% for him apart and 42.8% for Tarasenko apart. Tarasenko was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Tarasenko than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

244 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 30 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.