Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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13

Alexey Toropchenko

St. Louis Blues Right Wing

The 96th-percentile sprint rate at 6-6, on twenty-eight games and two points.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22STL28202-915000434.710:43
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—28202-915000434.710:43

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

28 games, 2 goals and no assists at 10:43 a night, minus-9, fifteen penalty minutes, 43 shots. Hundred-and-thirteenth overall in 2017 by St Louis — the fourth round — one season, 28 games, 2 points.

Two hundred and ninety-four minutes of five-on-five ice is well short of the five hundred this book requires before it will place a man in the league distribution, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Forty-nine per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median, at 6-6 and 225 pounds.

Two goals from forty-three attempts is 4.7 per cent and only five per cent of those attempts came from beyond forty feet. He shoots from close range and did not score.

47.4 per cent of the expected goals across 294 five-on-five minutes, out of 36.6 per cent offensive-zone starts — forty-nine attacking starts against eighty-five in his own end, which is a hard chair for a rookie.

His ice went 6-16 against an expectation of 10.75-11.94 — almost five short in front and four more against, in a quarter of a season.

The Physical Game

6-6 and 225 pounds, and fifteen penalty minutes in twenty-eight games.

Just over half a penalty minute a game, off a ten-and-three-quarter-minute shift, and it is drawn from twenty-eight games, so it describes a tendency rather than establishing one.

The Intangibles

3.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour a game is the 96th percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers with forty games, against a 22.5 mph top speed at the 63rd.

A 6-6, 225-pound forward getting above twenty miles an hour three times a game on a ten-minute shift is the most interesting number in the file, and twenty-eight games is not enough to bank it.

1.76 miles a game is the 5th percentile, which at 10:43 a night is the shift rather than the skater. His shot is 90.9 mph, the 44th percentile.

He is 23 with twenty-eight NHL games and two points. The size, the shot chart, the sprint count and a hard chair taken as a rookie are four things worth watching. Two points is the whole of the production record and there is nothing here yet that says what he becomes.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Forty-nine per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median, at 6-6 and 225 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 294 minutes

Expected goals
47.4%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.7%
5th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 6 for, 16 against. Expected: 10.8 and 11.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
35th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 28 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
68th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
3.07 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.9 mph
70th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 294 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
STL took 48.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.4% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
294 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nathan Walker55.5%42.1%56.5%
Justin Faulk49.6%45.9%49.5%
Robert Bortuzzo48.1%47.1%50.5%

55.5% together, 42.1% for him apart and 56.5% for Walker apart. He was worse away from Walker, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Walker did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

57 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.