St. Louis Blues

What the Quant Says

254 goals, 13th in the league, and 28th at creating chances at even strength at 2.325 expected goals per 60. At five-on-five the club scored 170 against an expectation of 151.2 — 18.8 goals better, 4th in the league in finishing.

Robert Thomas had 60 assists in 70 games. Jordan Kyrou scored 36 goals. Dylan Holloway had 63 points and 8 game-winning goals in the first season after an offer sheet Edmonton declined to match. Pavel Buchnevich had 57 points and Brayden Schenn 50 at 33.

Then the distribution, which is the ordinary shape done well. The three best forwards on the club were all comfortably over their on-ice expectation — Jordan Kyrou by twelve goals, Pavel Buchnevich by seven, Robert Thomas by six. The fourth line came out level: Nathan Walker's ice went 22-22 against an expectation of 21.88-24.77, Alexey Toropchenko's 24-21 against 24.56-26.59, and Radek Faksa's 25-21 against 23.09-24.42.

That is what a good season is meant to look like from the inside: the scoring line scoring above the chances it generated, and a checking line breaking even on the ones it did not. Kyrou's twelve is the single figure that will not come again.

What the Scout Says

A passer, a skater and a finisher, and a fourth line that outscored all of them.

Robert Thomas's 60 assists come from the slowest hands on the roster. He holds the puck a beat longer than a defenceman expects, he waits for the second option, and he throws passes into places the play has not reached yet.

Jordan Kyrou beats a defenceman wide from a standing start and does it several times a night. He took 239 shots at a median of 32 feet — a rush shooter, and a profile that lives or dies on the shooting percentage.

Pavel Buchnevich takes 44 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and only 13 from beyond 40, which is the least perimeter profile in the top six, and he wins the pucks that get him there.

Dylan Holloway had 45 points in his first 89 NHL games and 63 in his next 77, and the difference is that somebody gave him the puck. Jake Neighbours converted 18.0 per cent from a median of 18 feet by standing in front of the net and staying there.

What the Quant Says

233 goals against, 11th in the league, and 3rd in even-strength expected goals against at 2.258 per 60. This is the best thing about the club and it is nothing like as widely noticed as it should be.

Colton Parayko is 6-6 and 228 and took 8 penalty minutes in 64 games at 23:45 a night, which is close to unheard of. He also scored 16 goals — more than any defenceman in this chapter — on a shot that is among the heaviest in the league.

Cam Fowler was acquired from Anaheim in December and his ice conceded thirteen fewer goals than the chances predicted, with 31 assists in 68 games. It was the trade that turned the season.

Philip Broberg finished plus-21 in the first year after his own offer sheet, at 6-4 with high-end skating. Justin Faulk at 33 was the only regular defenceman under the 50th percentile in chance share.

What the Scout Says

The best-behaved blue line in hockey, and the third-best chance suppression in the league on top of it.

Colton Parayko at 6-6 closes at the blue line without contact, clears his own crease and blocks shots, and his shot is a genuine weapon rather than a puck thrown at the net — 16 goals and 19 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, which for a defenceman is a very high share.

Cam Fowler escapes the first forechecker by turning away from it and moves the puck early, and 31 assists in 68 games is the most of any defenceman here. He does not clear his crease and does not need to with Parayko beside him.

Philip Broberg is 6-4 with high-end skating and carries the puck out under a forecheck rather than absorbing it. Justin Faulk at 33 finishes checks and blocks shots and had the worst chance share of the regulars.

The edge is Tyler Tucker: 55 penalty minutes in 38 games and 128 in 90 career games, no shot attempts at all from inside 20 feet, and a seventh-round pick who fights.

What the Quant Says

Jordan Binnington went 28-22-5 with a .9005, a 2.69 average and 3 shutouts in 56 games. The club's goaltending at five-on-five came in 2.3 goals better than the chances faced, 17th in the league — league-average, behind the 3rd-best chance suppression in hockey.

He is 6-2 and 172 and among the lightest goaltenders in the league, and the file is a strange one: a career .9066 across eight seasons, which is unremarkable, and a Stanley Cup as a rookie, a Four Nations final, and a Game 7 in this building. He lost a double-overtime Game 7 in Winnipeg last spring after his club came back from 3-1 down in the series.

Joel Hofer went 16-8-3 with a .9035 in 31 games and has a career .9074 — better than the starter's. He is 6-5 and 25. It is the third consecutive season in which he has out-saved the man in front of him, and it is the most interesting unresolved question on the roster.

What the Scout Says

A Stanley Cup winner with an ordinary save percentage, and a 6-5 backup with a better one.

Jordan Binnington is 6-2 and 172 and among the lightest goaltenders in the league, which means the technique has to be precise and the athleticism has to fill the gaps. The lateral recovery is the best physical thing about him and the rebound control is ordinary — which, behind a club that suppresses chances this well, costs less than it would anywhere else.

The rest of it is temperament, and there is a great deal of it. He is combative to the point of being a liability some nights and it is not separable from the rest of it. The record in elimination games is the argument and the career .9066 is the counter-argument, and both have been true for six years.

Joel Hofer is 6-5 and 193 and takes up a great deal of the net. He sets at the top of the crease and lets the frame do the work, and the rebound control is good for a goaltender built this way — which is the thing that usually goes wrong. The lateral recovery is the limitation.

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at 7.12 expected goals per 60, over 4:16 a night — the 29th-most power-play time in hockey. Below average on a small amount of opportunity, which is the quietest failing on the club.

Jordan Kyrou scored 7 power-play goals, Dylan Holloway 6 and Jake Neighbours 6. Robert Thomas had 3, which for a man who put up 60 assists is a strange line and says the unit is not running through him.

Jake Neighbours is the net-front and he is the correct man for it — 55 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet, the highest share in this chapter. Cam Fowler and Justin Faulk distribute from the point.

A club with this much skill in its top six and this little power-play time is leaving goals somewhere, and the most likely place is that it does not draw enough penalties.

What the Scout Says

A good net-front, two good point men, and a rate that says the puck does not reach the right people.

Jake Neighbours is the man in the paint and he is exactly right for it — he goes to the front of the net and stays there while grown men try to remove him, and 55 per cent of his shot attempts come from inside 20 feet.

Jordan Kyrou's release from the circle is the first threat and 7 power-play goals says the box has to respect it. Cam Fowler and Justin Faulk distribute from the blue line, and Dylan Holloway's heavy shot from the far side scored 6.

The oddity is Robert Thomas. A centre with 60 assists scored 3 power-play goals, which says the unit is not being run through the best passer on the roster. On the 29th-most power-play time in the league, 20th is not a disaster and it is a waste.

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at 7.176 expected goals against per 60, over 4:02 a game — the 4th-least shorthanded time in hockey. Slightly below average on the smallest workload of almost any club.

Colton Parayko took 8 penalty minutes in 64 games, Philip Broberg 16 in 68 and Cam Fowler 14 in 68, which is a top four that essentially never fouls and is most of why the workload is what it is.

Up front it is Oskar Sundqvist, Alexey Toropchenko and Mathieu Joseph, and Pius Suter was signed in the summer — 18 penalty minutes in 81 games in Vancouver and a first-unit killer everywhere he has been.

The discipline is genuinely excellent and the rate is ordinary, which is the same shape as the power play read from the other end.

What the Scout Says

The most disciplined club in this edition, and a kill that is nevertheless ordinary.

Parayko, Broberg and Fowler took 38 penalty minutes between them across 200 games. That is why the club spends less time shorthanded than almost anybody, and it is a real competitive advantage that does not show up in the unit's own rate.

Oskar Sundqvist wins the draw that begins the shift and blocks shots, Alexey Toropchenko is 6-6 and forechecks a kill aggressively, and Mathieu Joseph is used to chase pucks down and relieve pressure. Pius Suter was signed in the summer — 18 penalty minutes in 81 games and a first-unit killer at every stop.

On the blue line, Parayko's reach makes a four-man box larger than it is on paper.