St. Louis Blues

What the Quant Says

231 goals, 25th in shot-attempt share and 18th in chances — a middling attack whose best pages belong to men who have not turned 25.

Robert Thomas put up 64 points in 64 games. Jimmy Snuggerud scored 21 goals and 51 points in his first full season at 22. Dylan Holloway managed 51 in 59 games. Jake Neighbours takes 57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at the 77th percentile, and Pius Suter 56 per cent. Pavel Buchnevich added 48 points taking 45 per cent from the slot.

Finishing was essentially neutral at 2.7 above expectation, 15th. The problem is not conversion; it is that this club generates the 23rd-most chances in the league and gets almost nothing from the man advantage.

What the Scout Says

One outstanding playmaker and a group of shooters arranged around him. Robert Thomas is the best passer on the club and among the better ones in the league; he protects the puck through contact below the goal line, which is where most of the assists start, and he is not a checker and has never been. Pavel Buchnevich is skilled in a way that has never quite been fashionable — deceptive, patient under pressure, a disguised release — and his compete has been questioned in 2 organisations, usually by people watching him decline to enter a neutral zone.

The scoring comes from men who arrive rather than carry. Dylan Holloway uses his speed to get there rather than to beat anybody, and the shot does the rest. Jake Neighbours does his work at the net rather than away from it. Jimmy Snuggerud has a heavy release and takes more shots than anyone here, and loses the wall exchanges because the weight has not arrived. Connor McMichael gets to the right spots and does not get clean looks from them, and survives in the interior on quickness at his weight. Mason McTavish plays a genuinely hard game and the finishing has never followed the possession. Pius Suter does his shooting in the crease at 172 pounds, which almost nobody his size manages.

What the Quant Says

8th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.42 per 60, which is the quiet strength of the roster and does not match the goals conceded.

Philip Broberg played 1,524 5-on-5 minutes at 23:21 a night, was plus-14, and had the goals go 67-58 against him with the chances 63.4 to 59.4 in his favour — a 14-goal shortfall that is not his. Colton Parayko is 6-6 with 800 games and takes 73 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet. Cam Fowler is 34 in his 1,124th game. Logan Mailloux is 23 and played 67 games at the 56th percentile.

Justin Faulk has gone to Detroit. What remains is a competent, well-drilled group whose results were spoiled behind them.

What the Scout Says

The largest and most single-minded blue line in the league. Colton Parayko is 6-6 and takes 22 minutes a night with a discipline that is remarkable for a man his size; Brandon Carlo is 6 foot 5, has never had an offensive component and no club has ever asked for one, and takes the hardest minutes available. Between them they concede the outside and defend the slot, which is the club's method stated plainly.

The movement comes from 2 men. Philip Broberg's skating is exceptional for his size and he leaves his own zone with the puck as a matter of routine, and he is not physically dominant for that size, which has followed him since he was drafted 8th overall. Cam Fowler's first pass has always been the tool and still is, and he does not clear a crease and does not finish checks. Underneath, Logan Mailloux is a year or two behind on the defensive reads and plays at a high penalty rate, and Tyler Tucker's 81 penalty minutes in 14 minutes a night make him one of the more combative men in this edition — a 2 100th overall pick doing a specific job well.

What the Quant Says

The largest split in this book. Joel Hofer took 46 games and stopped .9088. Jordan Binnington took 41 and stopped .8733. 35 points of save percentage between 2 men on the same defence.

Collectively St. Louis came in 14.3 goals worse than the chances faced, 25th in the league — and the arithmetic says where that came from. On a club that is 8th at preventing chances, splitting the net evenly between a .909 and a .873 is the most expensive decision on the page, and the cheapest one to change.

What the Scout Says

2 goaltenders whose methods could hardly be less alike. Joel Hofer is 6-5 with genuinely good lateral movement for that length, improving rebound control every season, and a calmness that means he does not chase. He took the net from a Conn Smythe winner by simply playing better than him for 2 seasons running, which in this particular city is not a straightforward thing to do.

Jordan Binnington battles rather than positions — the technique has always been unorthodox, and it produces both the saves he is famous for and the goals he is not. He won a Stanley Cup as a rookie on a club that was last in the league in January and has been the most emotionally visible goaltender in the sport ever since. The split between the 2 of them is the widest in this edition, and the contract situation and the evidence point in opposite directions.

What the Quant Says

The worst in the league: 5.86 expected goals per 60, 32nd of 32 — and St. Louis had the second-least power-play time in hockey at 4:24 a night.

Worst rate on near-worst opportunity. Dalibor Dvorsky scored 5 power-play goals at 21, Snuggerud 5, Buchnevich 4. There is no quarterback: Parayko shoots from beyond 40 feet, Fowler took one power-play goal at 34, and Mailloux is not ready. On a club whose even-strength scoring is ordinary, this single unit is worth more than any trade available.

What the Scout Says

Built around one distributor and a set of heavy releases. Robert Thomas is the man who holds it until the lane opens, and the entire unit is an argument for giving him the puck and waiting. Pavel Buchnevich's disguised shot is the second look, and Dalibor Dvorsky's heavy release is already trusted here at 21, which says something about how the club rates it. Jonatan Berggren is a genuinely creative passer on a man advantage and very little away from one.

The net front is well supplied by the roster's shape. Jake Neighbours does his living at the net; Alexey Toropchenko and Jack Finley are both 6-6 and occupy space, though occupying it is not the same as imposing on it. Colton Parayko's point shot used to be among the heaviest in the league. What the unit needs is a second man who can beat pressure at the blue line, because when the first entry is taken away there is nobody here but Thomas who reliably makes a second one.

What the Quant Says

14th at 7.11 expected goals against per 60, over 4:43 a game, 22nd. Median rate, light workload, and comfortably the best of the club's special teams.

Tyler Tucker's 81 penalty minutes are the highest among the regulars and he still posted the 73rd percentile at even strength. Oskar Sundqvist and Alexey Toropchenko take the hard shorthanded minutes. This is the one phase of the St. Louis season that requires no explanation.

What the Scout Says

The phase this roster was built for. Colton Parayko and Brandon Carlo concede the outside and take away the middle, which is exactly what a kill is supposed to do, and both do it without fouling. Philip Broberg's skating closes gaps that heavier men could not. Tyler Tucker takes the front of the net and pays for it. Slow feet cost less here than anywhere, so the club's size is at its most useful.

Among the forwards, Pius Suter kills and wins his share of draws; Oskar Sundqvist and Nathan Walker do the honest work; Alexey Toropchenko's reach is worth something in a lane. Dylan Holloway's speed makes a loose puck dangerous the other way. The cost is where the club spends its penalty minutes: Ross Johnston takes 107 in under 10 minutes a night, which is one of the highest rates in the league, and Tucker 81 — 2 men whose value is largely that they put themselves in the box on purpose. A club with this much size has to decide how much of that it can afford.