Florida Panthers

What the Quant Says

340 goals, 1st in the league, off 3.37 expected goals per 60 at even strength — 1st, and 0.21 clear of Carolina in second.

At five-on-five it scored 218 against an expectation of 212.0. The finishing was 12th and almost exactly neutral, which is the whole point: this club did not shoot the lights out, it simply had the puck.

Aleksander Barkov had 88 points in 67 games with 3.48 even-strength points per 60, the 10th-most of the 393 qualified forwards, and 39 goals at 18.2 per cent. Sam Reinhart scored 33 from a median of 18 feet — the 27th-closest shot chart of 393 — at 17.7 per cent.

Carter Verhaeghe took 3.02 takeaways per 60, the 6th-most in the league, and 52 of his 55 points came at five-on-five. Sam Bennett took 12.02 shots per 60, the 10th-most of 393, and scored 28. Anthony Duclair scored 31 at 18.6 per cent against a career rate of 13.6.

Patric Hornqvist took 12.02 shots per 60 at twelve minutes and forty seconds a night — the 9th-most in the league — and converted 6.7 per cent of them, the 11th percentile.

Jonathan Huberdeau's 115 points and Mason Marchment's 47 in 54 games are gone. Matthew Tkachuk arrives with 42 goals, 62 assists and 3.67 even-strength points per 60, the 4th-most of 393 — and he is four years younger than the man he replaces.

What the Scout Says

Barkov's conversion is extraordinary and the locations are ordinary, which is the honest frame for 39 goals in 67 games.

Tkachuk shoots from the paint and he shoots a great deal. He holds the puck longer than almost anybody and loses it more often than almost anybody, and on a line that took sixty-one per cent of the chances that trade was worth making.

Reinhart's shot is soft, close and lethal, which is a combination the position rewards more than any other.

Verhaeghe wins the puck back more often than all but five forwards in the league, and he does it at sixteen minutes a night — and fifty-two of his fifty-five points came at five-on-five, which is the least borrowed production on the club.

Bennett's goals came from shooting more than anybody, not from finishing better than anybody, which is the more repeatable of the two.

Duclair is very fast and he covers almost no ground — a winger who waits for the play and then goes, at an 18.6 per cent conversion rate against a career 13.6.

Hornqvist's locations are excellent: a 35-year-old who takes twelve shots an hour from nineteen feet and scores on 6.7 per cent of them has had a bad year, not a bad idea.

Below them, Luostarinen goes to the right places almost never and Colin White takes two shots a game from fourteen feet with the sixth-softest shot the tracking has recorded.

What the Quant Says

246 goals against, 13th in the league — off 2.603 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 14th. This was never a great defensive club; it was a club that spent the game in the other end.

At five-on-five it conceded 161 against an expectation of 163.2.

Aaron Ekblad took 59.4 per cent of the chances over 1,093 minutes — the 2nd-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen — with 1.80 even-strength points per 60, the 5th-most. He also finished with the 15th-fewest blocks and the 51st-fewest hits of 202, which is what happens when the puck is never in your own end.

Gustav Forsling posted a plus-41 with 2.03 takeaways per 60, the 7th-most of 202, and 1.68 even-strength points per 60, the 9th-most — with not one point on the power play.

Radko Gudas recorded 15.35 hits per 60, the 2nd-most of the 202 qualified defencemen, and 101.7 mph, the 2nd-hardest shot of the 192 the tracking covers — with 105 penalty minutes and the 3rd-most penalties drawn.

Brandon Montour covered 9.21 miles per 60 — the most of the 192 qualified defencemen — at a 23.1 mph top speed, the 5th-fastest. He also blocked at the 12th-fewest rate of 202.

MacKenzie Weegar has gone to Calgary. He played 1,775 attempts with Ekblad at 58.3 per cent and took 57.4 without him over 1,179 — a real sample and a real number, and the largest single subtraction from this roster after Huberdeau.

Marc Staal arrives at 35 with the 27th-lowest top speed of the 192 qualified defencemen, and Joshua Mahura with 38 games in Anaheim.

What the Scout Says

Ekblad has the puck constantly, and the physical numbers do not match the size: at nearly twenty-five minutes a night on the best club in the league, the hits and blocks are near the floor. The puck was at the other end and there was very little to block.

Forsling takes the puck off people at a rate almost no defenceman matches and gives it back nearly as often, and he does not cover unusual ground; he covers it in bursts. There is no contact game at all, and a plus-41 came out of it anyway.

Montour walks in rather than firing from the blue line and pays for the mobility at the other end: 48 penalty minutes, which is the price of defending with the feet and losing the race.

Gudas is the only man on this blue line who defends by contact, and he does it more than all but one defenceman in the league at eighteen minutes a night. The 105 penalty minutes are what it costs.

Marc Staal arrives at 35 with four crossings of twenty miles an hour in a whole season. What nothing here measures is positioning and gap control, which is the whole of what he is still being paid for.

Lucas Carlsson covers a great deal of ground in very few shifts and has the closest shot chart of any Florida defenceman.

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at plus-2.2 goals against the chances faced — slightly better than the shots, on a club that faced the easiest shots in hockey.

Sergei Bobrovsky went 39-7-3 with a .9125 and a 2.67 across 54 games on 1,566 shots — 19th of the 53 goaltenders who played 25 games or more. The last three seasons read .8997, .9059 and .9125, which is a recovery, and it happened on the best defensive environment of his career.

Ten playoff games: 303 shots, 276 saves, .9109, four wins and six losses.

Spencer Knight went .9075 across 32 games and 876 shots at 20 — 30th of the 53. Behind a club that took 56.5 per cent of the chances and allowed the 15th-lowest rate of expected goals against, that is a below-average season and the 19-9-3 record will not say so.

Jonas Johansson has gone to Colorado.

The crease is a 34-year-old whose career .9161 is built on two extraordinary Columbus seasons, and a 21-year-old first-round pick with 36 NHL games. Nothing in this repo can separate a good young goaltender from a young goaltender in front of the best structure in the league, and 876 shots is not enough to try.

What the Scout Says

Sergei Bobrovsky is 6-2 and 180, which is light for the modern position and has been the whole of his career.

Nothing in this repo measures a goaltender's glove, his push, his rebound control or how deep he plays. What it has is shots and goals, and 1,566 shots is a very large sample. A .9125 on that volume is a real number and an ordinary one.

Almost none of the shots he faced were the hard ones. Florida allowed the 15th-lowest rate of expected goals against at even strength and took 56.5 per cent of the chances, first in the league.

Spencer Knight is 6-3 and 191, at the size the position now selects for and considerably larger than the man ahead of him. At 876 shots the number is starting to mean something and it is not yet a season.

A .9075 in front of the club that faced the fewest dangerous chances in hockey is not yet evidence of anything, and the two ways it can go — a starter by 23, or a good backup for a decade — are both entirely open.

Nobody drafted Bobrovsky and only Marc-Andre Fleury and Jonathan Quick have more wins among the 72 goaltenders in this edition. The club has a 21-year-old first-round goaltender sitting behind him, and the next two seasons are about which of those two facts governs.

What the Quant Says

14th in the league at 6.609 expected goals per 60, over 5:02 a night — 6th in power-play time and 14th in what it produced. On a club that led the league in every even-strength measure there is, the man advantage was resolutely average.

Aaron Ekblad took 3:31 a night from the point, the 98th percentile among defencemen, with 35 per cent of his points there. Aleksander Barkov took 3:29 at the 95th percentile among forwards with 30 per cent of his.

Sam Reinhart is the most exposed: 38 per cent of his points came on the man advantage, the 94th percentile, off 3:21 a night. Thirty-one of his eighty-two points.

The rest of the top six barely touch it. Carter Verhaeghe took 5 per cent of his points on the power play, the 25th percentile, and Sam Bennett 18 per cent. Gustav Forsling had not one power-play point in a 37-point season.

Matthew Tkachuk arrives with 28 per cent of his points on the man advantage — ordinary, and on a unit that has room. Nick Cousins arrives having drawn 1.77 penalties per 60, the 13th-most of the 393 qualified forwards, which is a specific way to feed a power play without being on it.

Patric Hornqvist takes 2:07 a night at 35 with 25 per cent of his points there, and the 6.7 per cent conversion rate is the argument for and against him in one figure.

What the Scout Says

Ekblad at the point, Barkov in the middle, Reinhart at the net and Huberdeau on the wall — except Huberdeau has gone and Tkachuk is the replacement.

On a club that led the league in every even-strength measure, the man advantage was 14th, which is the argument for changing something and the reason the arrival matters more here than anywhere.

Reinhart is the man the unit carries — thirty-eight per cent of his points, the 94th percentile — and he goes to the same eighteen feet every night, which is exactly what a first unit wants standing in front of a goaltender.

Tkachuk arrives from a unit where twenty-eight per cent of his points came, so nothing about him is power-play-dependent and everything about him suits the job: he wins pucks standing still on the half-wall.

Verhaeghe is the one to leave off it. Five per cent of his points came on the man advantage and fifty-two of his fifty-five arrived at five-on-five; the value is elsewhere.

Hornqvist is the net-front alternative at 35, with the ninth-highest shot rate in the league and a conversion figure that says he was unlucky rather than finished.

Nick Cousins draws penalties at the thirteenth-highest rate in the league, which is a specific way to feed a eighteenth-ranked power play from the fourth line.

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at 6.348 expected goals against per 60, over 5:10 a night — the 6th-most short-handed time in the league and an average result from it.

On a club that was 1st at even strength in every direction, both special teams came in 14th. That is the one structural criticism the record supports.

Aleksander Barkov killed 2:10 a night, the 95th percentile among forwards, and took 2.60 takeaways per 60, the 16th-most of 393. He is the unit.

Anton Lundell killed 2:22, the 98th percentile among forwards, at twenty years old — with 3.46 takeaways per 60, the 3rd-most in the league, and 3.28 blocks per 60 at the 96th percentile. Eetu Luostarinen killed 1:53 at the 88th with 2.18 takeaways at the 83rd.

Aaron Ekblad killed 2:48 at the 91st percentile among defencemen, Gustav Forsling 2:28 at the 79th and Radko Gudas 2:05 at the 65th.

Gudas is the risk. 1.64 penalties taken per 60 is the 98th percentile and 105 minutes in 77 games is the most of any Florida skater — a penalty-killer who is also the reason the unit is on the ice.

Nothing in the kill has left. Every name above returns, which on a roster that lost 162 points of forward is the one place the club is unchanged.

What the Scout Says

Barkov and Lundell down the middle, Luostarinen on the wing, Ekblad and Forsling and Gudas behind them — and it finished 14th.

Barkov takes the puck off people at a rate almost no forward in the league matches, and it is the reason he plays two minutes a night short-handed on the best club in hockey.

Lundell is the find. Only Auston Matthews and Jimmy Vesey won the puck back more often, and neither of them was twenty. He covers more ground than all but two forwards in the league and he never sprints, and 3.28 blocks per 60 for a forward is elite and is the shape of a penalty-killer.

Luostarinen covers an enormous amount of ground and never goes fast, which is the same measured shape and the reason both of them kill.

Forsling has no contact game at all and kills two and a half minutes a night on takeaways and position.

Gudas is the contradiction. He kills two minutes a night and gives up more penalties than he earns, and both halves are enormous — 105 minutes in 77 games, the most of any Florida skater.

Nothing in this unit has left, which on a roster that sold 162 points of forward is the one continuity the club has.