Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

70

Patric Hornqvist

Florida Panthers Right Wing

The 9th-most shots per 60 of the 393 qualified forwards at twelve and a half minutes a night, and the 11th percentile for conversion.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09NSH28257-316000543.711:24
2009-10NSH80302151+1840100827510.915:41
2010-11NSH79212748+11476052657.915:44
2011-12NSH76271643+92880323011.715:20
2012-13NSH2441014-114401874.616:14
2013-14NSH76223153+1287062488.916:52
2014-15PIT64252651+123860422011.417:39
2015-16PIT82222951+15369032578.616:51
2016-17PIT70212344+162810062239.415:57
2017-18PIT70292049+258150124711.717:19
2018-19PIT69181937-3266021979.115:29
2019-20PIT52171532+93630216810.115:56
2020-21FLA44141832-3398021459.716:47
2021-22FLA65111728-5193001656.712:40
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—879263277540+784539504327819.515:52

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 17 assists in 65 games — 28 points and a minus-5 at 12:40 a night, the 20th percentile among forwards — with 19 penalty minutes.

59.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 823 minutes, the 12th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards.

The Finesse Game

12.02 shots per 60 is the 9th-most of the 393 qualified forwards. At twelve minutes and forty seconds a night. One hundred and sixty-five shots in sixty-five games from a third-line winger, which is a rate almost nobody in the league matches at any ice time.

Eleven goals off it is 6.7 per cent, the 11th percentile. That is the season in two numbers: he shot more per minute than nine-tenths of the league and converted worse than nine-tenths of it.

61 per cent from the slot at a median of 19 feet, the 10th percentile for distance. The locations are excellent. A 35-year-old who takes twelve shots an hour from nineteen feet and scores on 6.7 per cent of them has had a bad year, not a bad idea.

1.02 giveaways per 60 is the 18th percentile — he does not lose the puck. 2:07 a night on the power play with 25 per cent of his points there.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 189, and 35 years old.

8.16 hits per 60 is the 82nd percentile among forwards at twelve minutes a night. 1.09 penalties drawn per 60 is the 79th percentile against 0.58 taken — a net of plus-0.51 at the 87th. He stands in the crease, takes the punishment and does not retaliate, which is a specific and expensive job.

22.2 mph is the 39th percentile and 5.1 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 49th, with 9.60 miles per 60 at the 45th. Ordinary at all three, at 35, which is the least alarming version of that sentence available.

The Intangibles

Two hundred and thirtieth overall in 2005, the seventh round — the lowest draft position of any drafted man in this chapter — and 879 NHL games at 35 with 263 goals and 540 points.

A seventh-round pick has played nearly nine hundred NHL games and scored more than two hundred and fifty goals, which is the most improbable line in this chapter.

44 games in 2020-21 and 65 last season. The availability is going and the shot volume is not.

Florida has Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair on the wings. He is a fourth net-front option at 35 with the ninth-highest shot rate in the league, and the 6.7 per cent is the only reason that reads as a decline rather than a bargain.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He stands in the crease, takes the punishment and does not retaliate”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “8.16 hits per 60 is the 82nd percentile among forwards”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 699 minutes

Expected goals
59%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.5%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 32 against. Expected: 37.8 and 26.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
78th
Numbers
97th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
56th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.08 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.6 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 699 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.0% — 2.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 699 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Eetu Luostarinen59.3%58.7%52.5%
Ryan Lomberg60.0%58.4%52.2%
MacKenzie Weegar60.3%58.1%57.5%

59.3% together, 58.7% for him apart and 52.5% for Luostarinen apart. Luostarinen was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Luostarinen than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

203 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 53% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.