Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

36

Colin White

Florida Panthers Center

Twenty-four games, and the 6th-softest recorded shot of the 649 skaters the tracking covers.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17OTT20000000010.013:43
2017-18OTT21246+18001248.313:21
2018-19OTT71142741-242450212311.416:12
2019-20OTT6171623-1239100838.415:42
2020-21OTT4510818-6162006914.514:41
2021-22OTT243710-114201476.415:20
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—224366298-5291100434710.415:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 7 assists in 24 games for Ottawa — 10 points, a minus-11 and 4 penalty minutes at 15:20 a night.

Twenty-four games and 298 minutes is far short of the 40 games and 500 minutes this book requires, so there is no peer group and nothing here is a percentile. 51.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across five hours. His ice went 8-15 against an expectation of 11.42-10.82.

Five hours is a week of hockey. Nothing in this section is a season.

The Finesse Game

Forty-seven shots in twenty-four games — a real rate — and three went in.

The median travels 14 feet and 63 per cent came from inside twenty. That is one of the closest shot charts in the book and it is the most interesting thing on the page: a centre who takes two shots a game from fourteen feet is doing the right thing, and 6.4 per cent of them went in.

77.4 mph is the 6th-softest recorded shot of the 649 skaters the league’s tracking measured. A maximum is a season best and twenty-four games is a quarter of the chances at one, but a soft shot from fourteen feet is a different problem from a soft shot from forty.

Two of his ten points came on the power play.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 195. 2.41 miles a game and a 21.8 mph top speed, both ordinary for fifteen minutes a night, and 0.8 bursts over 20 mph a game.

Four penalty minutes in twenty-four games.

44.2 per cent of his even-strength time was in the attacking zone, which is high and sits oddly against a minus-11.

The Intangibles

Twenty-first overall in 2015, and 224 NHL games at 25 with 98 points and a career minus-52.

Six seasons in Ottawa: 2, 71, 71, 39, 45, 24. The record is a first-round centre whose games played have fallen every year since 2018-19 and whose points have fallen with them.

Florida is the second organisation of his career and the best club in the league. He is a thirteenth forward with a good shot chart and a soft shot, and twenty-four games is not enough to say whether the first of those or the second is what he is.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 298 minutes

Expected goals
51.3%
65th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.8%
91st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 8 for, 15 against. Expected: 11.4 and 10.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
2nd
Numbers
65th

The numbers rank him 63 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 45 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 24 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
35th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
77.4 mph
15th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with OTT · 298 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.3% — 4.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
298 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Artem Zub52.9%50.5%46.7%
Erik Brannstrom44.9%54.7%46.5%
Zach Sanford57.3%48.9%46.0%

52.9% together, 50.5% for him apart and 46.7% for Zub apart. Zub was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Zub than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

59 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 63% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.