Lucas Carlsson
Florida Panthers Defense
The fewest minutes per game of the 202 qualified defencemen bar one, and the 91st percentile for ground covered.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | CHI | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 14:08 |
| 2020-21 | CHI | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 13:04 |
| 2021-22 | FLA | 40 | 3 | 6 | 9 | +3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 7.3 | 12:43 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 58 | 3 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 5.6 | 12:56 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 6 assists in 40 games — 9 points and a plus-3 at 12:43 a night, the 2nd-lowest of the 202 qualified defencemen.
55.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 507 minutes, the 88th percentile, and 55.7 per cent of the attempts, the 92nd. Read that against the club: Florida took 56.5 per cent of the chances as a team, so a seventh defenceman on it was always going to look good.
The Finesse Game
4.84 shots per 60 is the 57th percentile among defencemen and three goals on 41 shots is 7.3 per cent, the 86th — a small sample and a flattering rate.
The median travels 45 feet, the 6th percentile — the closest shot chart of any Florida defenceman, and closer than nearly every defenceman in the league.
1.08 even-strength points per 60 is the 66th percentile and no power-play time at all. He has no power-play goals in 58 NHL games.
The Physical Game
6-0 and 190. 4.60 hits per 60 is the 57th percentile and 3.42 blocks is the 25th.
8.87 miles per 60 is the 91st percentile among defencemen — at twelve and three-quarter minutes a night, which is the lowest ice time in the qualified pool bar one. He covers a great deal of ground in very few shifts. The top speed, at 21.6 mph and the 33rd percentile, says he does not do it quickly.
0.12 penalties drawn per 60 is the 4th percentile and 0.59 taken is the 46th — a net of minus-0.47 at the 19th. Ten penalty minutes in forty games.
The Intangibles
One hundred and tenth overall in 2016, the fourth round, and 58 NHL games at 25 across three seasons — twelve in Chicago, forty here, and six before that.
With Brandon Montour he took 57.4 per cent over 545 attempts and Montour without him took 54.6. Five hundred attempts is a small sample and it is the only one on his page.
The seventh defenceman on the best club in the league. MacKenzie Weegar’s departure moves everybody up one, and the honest reading of 507 minutes is that it says almost nothing about whether he can take those.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- sheltered· is started in the attacking end
61% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 97th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 512 minutes
- Expected goals
- 55.4%
- 88th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.7%
- 91st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 25 for, 22 against. Expected: 25.7 and 20.7.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 75 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 40 games
- Top speed
- 21.6 mph
- 52nd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.20 a game
- Distance
- 1.88 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 94.5 mph
- 64th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 90.4
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 512 minutes at five-on-five
- Radko Gudas16%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.4% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third pair, 512 minutes at five-on-five — 19th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour | 57.4% | 52.4% | 54.6% |
| Anton Lundell | 53.6% | 56.0% | 56.6% |
| Sam Reinhart | 58.5% | 54.3% | 60.2% |
57.4% together, 52.4% for him apart and 54.6% for Montour apart. He was worse away from Montour, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Montour did.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
56 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 59% from beyond forty.