Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

26

Jimmy Vesey

New York Rangers Left Wing

The 2nd-most takeaways of 393 forwards and the 6th-percentile scoring rate, on a minus-24.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYR80161127-132650611613.813:38
2017-18NYR79171128-182010413612.514:20
2018-19NYR81171835-62110415411.016:03
2019-20BUF6491120+1215012939.713:48
2020-21TOR/VAN505510-1410001588.612:43
2021-22NJD688715-24120221107.314:25
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4227263135-63104731966710.814:16

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

68 games for New Jersey, 8 goals and 7 assists at 14:25 a night, minus-24, twelve penalty minutes, 110 shots. Sixty-sixth overall in 2012 by Nashville, six seasons, 422 games, 135 points.

The Finesse Game

3.49 takeaways per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, behind only Auston Matthews.

0.94 even-strength points per 60 is the 6th percentile and none of his points came on the power play. The gap between those two figures is the whole report.

6.73 shots per 60 is the 39th percentile at 7.3 per cent, the 14th. Fifty per cent from the slot at a 25-foot median — ordinary locations, and the puck did not go in.

51.0 per cent of the expected goals and 50.0 per cent of the attempts are both above water on a club that finished 28th, out of 37.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 60th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

That is a genuinely hard chair and a good result from it. Then his ice went 20-40 against an expectation of 33.81-32.45 — fourteen goals short going forward and eight more against than the model asked.

Twenty-two goals of damage on ice that was winning the chances, on the club with the worst goaltending in the league. The minus-24 is that, and almost none of it is him.

The Physical Game

5.20 hits per 60 is the 63rd percentile and 1.77 blocks the 53rd at 6-2 and 203.

0.37 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.37 taken — exactly level, and twelve penalty minutes in sixty-eight games.

The Intangibles

2:02 short-handed a night is the 93rd percentile among forwards, and two of his eight goals came a man short.

22.0 mph is the 22nd percentile, 5.8 bursts per 60 the 57th, 9.93 miles per 60 the 75th. Slow, and working harder than most.

He is 29 and returns to the club he spent his first three seasons with. A checking winger who takes pucks off people at the second-highest rate in the league, kills at the 93rd percentile and scores at the 6th is a specific and useful thing, and the minus-24 attached to it is an artefact of somebody else’s crease.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “3.49 takeaways per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, behind only Auston Matthews.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:02 short-handed a night is the 93rd percentile among forwards, and two of his eight goals came a man short.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 818 minutes

Expected goals
51%
63rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
56th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 40 against. Expected: 33.8 and 32.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
63rd

The numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 68 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
42nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.40 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.3 mph
68th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with NJD · 818 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NJD took 51.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.0% — 0.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 818 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael McLeod47.0%53.8%47.4%
Damon Severson51.5%50.7%51.9%
Ryan Graves50.9%51.1%52.4%

47.0% together, 53.8% for him apart and 47.4% for McLeod apart. He was better away from McLeod, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost McLeod.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

153 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.