Florida Panthers

What the Quant Says

268 goals, 11th in the league, on the 9th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.693 expected goals per 60. For a club that won the Stanley Cup, that is a strikingly ordinary attack.

At five-on-five Florida took 55.7 per cent of the shot attempts, second in the league, and 53.7 per cent of the expected goals, fifth. It had the puck more than almost anybody and did less with it than the possession suggests, because most of what it generated came from the outside.

And it scored 156 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 166.7 — a shortfall of 10.7, 26th in the league. This is the part of the season that gets left out. The Panthers were a below-average finishing club and won anyway.

Sam Reinhart scored 57 goals, second in this edition behind Auston Matthews, on 233 shots at a 24.5 per cent conversion rate. Twenty-seven of them came on the power play, the most of anybody in this edition and six clear of Leon Draisaitl. His ice went 58-34 against an expectation of 49.69-34.94, which is eight goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and nothing at all at the other end.

Matthew Tkachuk had 62 assists and 88 points in 80 games. Aleksander Barkov had 80 points in 73 on the highest chance share on the club. Carter Verhaeghe scored 34 and Sam Bennett 20.

The forward group is deep, hard to play against, and short of a second line that scores. Take Reinhart's twenty-seven power-play goals out of it and there is not a great deal of scoring left, which is the honest description of it.

What the Scout Says

A fifty-seven-goal scorer who works from the goal line, and a first line that hunts pucks.

Sam Reinhart takes 50 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at a median of 20 and converted 24.5 per cent of them. That is not sustainable and it is also not an accident: he is standing in the places where 24 per cent is the going rate.

Matthew Tkachuk takes 52 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 at a median of 18 feet and had 62 assists. He holds the puck below the goal line, absorbs the cross-check, and finds the seam late. Aleksander Barkov is 6-3 and 214 and protects the puck as well as any centre in the league.

Carter Verhaeghe took 246 shots at a median of 29 feet and converted 13.8 per cent, against a career 14.9 across 330 games. Sam Bennett goes to the front of the net and stays there, and 40 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet.

Eetu Luostarinen is 6-3 and forechecks hard, and his ice went 31-35 against an expectation of 40.90-34.79 — ten goals of scoring that never arrived on a third line that was winning its minutes.

What the Quant Says

200 goals against, 2nd in the league, and 2.320 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 5th. This is the identity: a club that suppresses everything and lets the crease handle what gets through.

Gustav Forsling played 79 games at 22:09 a night and finished plus-56 — the best mark of any skater in this edition. His ice went 70-34 against an expectation of 64.33-50.29, which is six goals of finishing above expectation and sixteen fewer conceded than the chances called for. He is a fifth-round pick who was claimed off waivers and is now the best defensive defenceman in hockey by results.

Aaron Ekblad played 51 games at 20:52 and his ice went 35-16 against an expectation of 37.46-30.69 — fifteen goals fewer conceded than the chances predicted, in half a season. Evan Rodrigues's went 46-23 against 45.07-35.25, twelve fewer. Those are not defensive achievements. They are Sergei Bobrovsky appearing in three different men's rows.

Niko Mikkola is 6-6 and played all 82 games at 20:02 with 69 penalty minutes. Dmitry Kulikov is 33, has 948 career games, and was drafted by this organisation in 2009. Between them they took the minutes nobody wants at a 51.7 and a 53.8 per cent chance share.

The club lost Brandon Montour to Seattle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to Toronto and replaced them with Nate Schmidt from Winnipeg at 33, undrafted with 661 games, and Adam Boqvist from Columbus at 24, an eighth overall pick with a career minus-41. Jaycob Megna arrives from Chicago at 6-6 after a 41.3 per cent chance share, the seventh percentile.

That is a downgrade on paper and the club will not care, because the system has survived worse.

What the Scout Says

The best defensive defenceman in hockey by results, and a great deal of size behind him.

Gustav Forsling shoots from a median of 56 feet with 78 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 and it does not matter, because that is not the job. He defends with his stick and his gaps, closes early, and is almost never beaten wide. A fifth-round pick claimed off waivers who is now plus-125 for his career.

Aaron Ekblad is 6-4 and 220 and clears the front of his own net. First overall in 2014, ten seasons, 676 games, and 452 career penalty minutes. He has been the same player for a decade and the club has finally built one that suits him.

Niko Mikkola is 6-6 and 204 and defends with his reach. 69 penalty minutes in 82 games and 193 in 252 career games is a real rate, and a good part of it is a stick when he has been beaten.

Dmitry Kulikov is 33 with 948 games and 591 career penalty minutes. Nate Schmidt is 33, undrafted, and moves the puck. Adam Boqvist is 24 with a career minus-41 and a right-handed shot from the point.

Uvis Balinskis is 28, undrafted, from Ventspils, and played his first 26 National Hockey League games last season at 27.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 24.7 goals better than the chances it faced, 3rd in the league. That figure is the season. A club that finished 26th at converting its own chances and second in goals against did not do it with structure alone.

Sergei Bobrovsky went 36-17-4 with a .9148 and a 2.37 in 58 games, facing 1,584 shots, with 6 shutouts. He is 36, undrafted, and his career line across 700 games is a .9149 and a 2.59 — last season was his career rate to three decimal places, which after fourteen seasons is a remarkable thing to be able to write.

He has 396 career wins, second in this edition behind Marc-Andre Fleury, and 44 shutouts. Two Vezinas, a Cup, and a contract that was the most criticised in hockey for three years and is now the reason the Panthers have a ring.

Anthony Stolarz played 27 games behind him and is a Maple Leaf. The backup job is open, and on a club that gives up as little as this one there is a real argument that it does not matter much who takes it.

He is 36. The save percentage has not moved in fourteen years and the number of 36-year-old goaltenders for whom that stays true is small.

What the Scout Says

Undrafted, 36 years old, and a save percentage that has not moved in fourteen seasons.

Sergei Bobrovsky is 6-2 and 180 and plays an aggressive game, coming out to the top of the crease and cutting the angle down rather than waiting on the line. At 180 pounds he has no choice: there is not enough of him to block a net.

The lateral recovery is the best part of him and always has been. He gets across on a cross-ice pass later than a bigger goaltender and arrives anyway, and it is why he has never needed to be positionally perfect. He tracks the puck through traffic well, which on a club that concedes as many outside shots as this one is the difference between a save and a rebound.

A .9149 across 700 games and 20,419 shots. Two Vezinas, undrafted out of Novokuznetsk, and 396 wins. Last season's .9148 in 58 games is his career number to three decimal places.

Anthony Stolarz took 27 games and is a Maple Leaf, and there is no obvious replacement on the roster. At 36 the club is one injury away from finding out how much of this is the system.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 8.532 expected goals per 60, over 5:32 a night — the fourth-most power-play time in hockey. The one unit on this club that is genuinely a strength at creating rather than at preventing.

Sam Reinhart scored 27 power-play goals, the most of anybody in this edition, and has 105 in his career. He works from the goal line and the back post and he does not miss from there.

Carter Verhaeghe scored 8, Matthew Tkachuk 6, Aleksander Barkov 5 and Sam Bennett 5. Evan Rodrigues scored 3. That is a unit with one shooter and four men whose job is to find him.

Matthew Tkachuk has 65 career power-play goals and 361 career assists and runs it from the half-wall. Aleksander Barkov has 75 career power-play goals and takes the draw that starts it.

Third in the league, and the only reason the attack ranked as high as eleventh.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-seven power-play goals from one man, and fourth in the league.

Sam Reinhart has 105 career power-play goals in 696 games and works the back post and the goal line rather than a circle. He scored six more with the advantage than anybody else in this edition.

Matthew Tkachuk has 65 career power-play goals and 361 career assists and runs the unit from the half-wall, holding the puck until a lane appears rather than forcing one.

Aleksander Barkov has 75 career power-play goals and takes the entry draw. Carter Verhaeghe scored 8 from the far circle. Sam Bennett scored 5 from in front and screens for the rest.

Third in the league at the rate and third in the league at the time, which is a unit that is good and also gets a great many chances to be.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 5.608 expected goals against per 60, over 5:56 a night — the second-most shorthanded time in hockey. A club that takes a great many penalties and kills nearly all of them.

Aleksander Barkov has 12 career shorthanded goals in 737 games and is the best defensive forward of his generation. Sam Reinhart scored 5 shorthanded goals last season, and all five of his career total came in it, which is one of the stranger lines in this edition.

Eetu Luostarinen is 6-3 and has 2 career shorthanded goals, and Anton Lundell 3 in 216 games. Two big Finnish centres who kill penalties and take defensive-zone draws, which is most of what the unit is built from.

Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola defend the front of the net, and Mikkola does it at 6-6.

Second in the league at the rate and second in the league at the exposure. The discipline is the one part of this club that is genuinely poor and the kill has covered it for two seasons.

What the Scout Says

First in the league, on the second-most shorthanded time in hockey.

Aleksander Barkov has 12 career shorthanded goals in 737 games and 148 career penalty minutes across eleven seasons, one of the four lowest rates of any scoring centre in this edition. He kills, takes the draw, and never takes the penalty himself.

Sam Reinhart scored 5 shorthanded goals last season, which is every one he has scored.

Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell are 6-3 and 6-1 and kill the second unit. Tomas Nosek arrives from New Jersey, undrafted, with 5 career shorthanded goals in 434 games and a job description with one line in it.

Niko Mikkola clears the front of his own net at 6-6 and Gustav Forsling blocks shots. The kill is second in the league and it needs to be: only one club spent more time on it.