Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

10

Jonathan Huberdeau

Calgary Flames Left Wing

A hundred and fifteen points, and the 7th-lowest ground covered of the 365 forwards the tracking follows.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13FLA48141731-151820111212.516:56
2013-14FLA6991928-5372011088.315:40
2014-15FLA79153954+10380001698.916:45
2015-16FLA76203959+174341217411.518:09
2016-17FLA31101626-2133028611.617:55
2017-18FLA82274269-23270420413.219:12
2018-19FLA82306292-1440110522613.318:51
2019-20FLA69235578+53050315215.118:46
2020-21FLA55204161+123650112216.418:25
2021-22FLA803085115+355453722213.519:25
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—671198415613+4134144426157512.618:05

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 85 assists in 80 games for Florida — 115 points at 19:25 a night, plus-35, with 54 penalty minutes. He arrived here in July.

53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,050 minutes, the 77th percentile among forwards. His ice went 64-52 against an expectation of 55.26-48.01 — nine more goals for than the chances promised and four more against.

3.88 even-strength points per 60 is the 99th percentile among forwards. Only Johnny Gaudreau produced at a higher five-on-five rate, which is the joke Calgary is living in.

The Finesse Game

Eighty-five assists. 33 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 84th percentile, on 3:41 a night at the 97th percentile.

2.43 takeaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile against 3.28 giveaways at the 98th, which counts against him. The puck is on his stick constantly and a great many possessions end there; that is the arithmetic of an 85-assist season.

8.57 shots per 60 is the 70th percentile at 13.5 per cent. He shoots enough and it is not the point.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200. 3.82 hits per 60 is the 48th percentile — ordinary, which for a scorer is more than most manage.

8.77 miles per 60 is the 7th-lowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, and 2.0 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 10th percentile against a top speed of 22.0 mph at the 24th. A 115-point winger covers less ground than almost anybody in the league and almost never gets to top gear.

That is not a criticism dressed as a fact; it is the shape of the player. He plays a slow, heavy possession game inside the offensive zone — 43.8 per cent of his even-strength time was spent there, the 91st percentile — and the value is in what happens once the puck stops moving.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2011, and 671 games with 613 points for one club.

He arrives with MacKenzie Weegar as the return for Matthew Tkachuk. Calgary has replaced 115 points and 115 points with 115 points and 44 — and it has replaced a 24-year-old who skates with a 29-year-old who does not.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    70% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The puck is on his stick constantly and a great many possessions end there; that is the arithmetic of an 85-assist season.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,050 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
79th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.2%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 52 against. Expected: 55.3 and 48.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
78th
Numbers
79th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
43rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.84 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.7 mph
43rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with FLA · 1050 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 3.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,050 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sam Bennett55.4%50.9%58.4%
Anthony Duclair50.1%56.8%55.1%
MacKenzie Weegar52.6%54.2%60.3%

55.4% together, 50.9% for him apart and 58.4% for Bennett apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Bennett and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

283 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.