Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

15

Anton Lundell

Florida Panthers Center

The 3rd-most takeaways and the 3rd-most ground covered of the qualified forwards — at twenty years old.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22FLA65182644+331811412514.415:44
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—65182644+331811412514.415:44

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 26 assists in 65 games — 44 points and a plus-33 in his first NHL season, at 15:44 a night, the 51st percentile among forwards — with 18 penalty minutes. 2:22 a night short-handed is the 98th percentile among forwards, at twenty years old.

56.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 825 minutes, the 88th percentile.

The Finesse Game

3.46 takeaways per 60 is the 3rd-most of the 393 qualified forwards. Only Auston Matthews and Jimmy Vesey won the puck back more often, and neither of them was twenty. This is the single most remarkable number in the Florida chapter.

2.62 even-strength points per 60 is the 85th percentile with only 9 per cent of his points on the power play — forty of his forty-four points came at five-on-five and short-handed.

7.33 shots per 60 is the 51st percentile and eighteen goals on 125 is 14.4 per cent, the 77th. 48 per cent from the slot at a median of 25 feet — ordinary locations at ordinary volume.

81.8 mph is the 17th-softest recorded shot of the 365 qualified forwards. The shot is not the tool.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196. 1.53 hits per 60 is the 11th percentile among forwards — almost no contact at all — and 3.28 blocks per 60 is the 96th percentile, which for a forward is elite and is the shape of a penalty-killer.

10.77 miles per 60 is the 3rd-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, against a 22.6 mph top speed at the 58th percentile and 3.6 bursts over 20 mph per 60 at the 28th. He covers more ground than all but two forwards in the league and he never sprints, which is the measured description of a centre who is always in the right place a half-second early.

0.53 penalties taken per 60 is the 34th percentile — eighteen minutes in sixty-five games.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2020, and this was the whole of his NHL record: 65 games, 44 points, a plus-33 and two minutes and twenty-two seconds a night short-handed.

With Sam Reinhart he took 63.8 per cent of the chances over 694 attempts and 49.3 without him, and with Mason Marchment 61.3 over 521. Both of those figures come with the same warning: this is the best club in the league and a 20-year-old third-line centre on it will look better than he is.

What will not wash out is the takeaway rate and the blocked shots. Those are the numbers a 20-year-old is not supposed to have, and they are the reason a Presidents’ Trophy club was killing penalties with a twenty-year-old.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “Only Auston Matthews and Jimmy Vesey won the puck back more often, and neither of them was twenty.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He covers more ground than all but two forwards in the league and he never sprints”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “which for a forward is elite and is the shape of a penalty-killer”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 825 minutes

Expected goals
56.2%
90th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.8%
91st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 31 against. Expected: 39.7 and 31.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
90th

The numbers rank him 27 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.83 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.8 mph
27th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 825 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.2% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 825 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sam Reinhart63.8%49.3%57.7%
Mason Marchment61.3%53.1%66.7%
MacKenzie Weegar57.5%55.4%58.1%

63.8% together, 49.3% for him apart and 57.7% for Reinhart apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

171 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.