Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

22

Rudolfs Balcers

Florida Panthers Left Wing

The 6th-most ground covered of the 365 forwards the tracking follows, and the 8th percentile for attacking-zone time.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19OTT365914-7103014810.412:21
2019-20OTT15123-20001234.312:08
2020-21SJS418917-6160026612.114:43
2021-22SJS61111223-3200019811.215:02
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—153253257-184630523510.614:02

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 12 assists in 61 games for San Jose — 23 points and a minus-3 at 15:02 a night, the 46th percentile among forwards — with 20 penalty minutes.

46.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 917 minutes, the 23rd percentile — on a San Jose club that finished 31st in shot-attempt share.

The Finesse Game

6.41 shots per 60 is the 32nd percentile among forwards and eleven goals on 98 shots is 11.2 per cent, the 48th. 49 per cent from the slot at a median of 26 feet — ordinary everywhere.

1.58 even-strength points per 60 is the 37th percentile and not one of his twenty-three points came on the power play, off 0:14 a night.

2.29 takeaways per 60 is the 87th percentile against 1.96 giveaways at the 75th — the best figure on the page and the reason he keeps a job.

85.1 mph is the 16th percentile.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 182. 7.52 hits per 60 is the 78th percentile among forwards and 2.81 blocks is the 90th — a genuinely committed physical game from a man who is 182 pounds.

10.65 miles per 60 is the 6th-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, with 10.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 at the 90th percentile and a 23.0 mph top speed at the 81st. He covers more ground than all but five forwards in the league and he sprints while he is doing it.

38.6 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 8th percentile. All that skating and the puck was at the other end, which is what a third-line winger on the 31st-ranked club produces.

0.59 penalties taken per 60 is the 45th percentile.

The Intangibles

One hundred and forty-second overall in 2015, the fifth round, and 153 NHL games at 25 with 57 points and a career minus-18 across two organisations.

Four seasons of seventeen to twenty-three points at fourteen or fifteen minutes. The record is a bottom-six winger and the skating file is better than that.

Florida has lost Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar and Mason Marchment and gained Matthew Tkachuk. He is the thirteenth forward on the club that finished first, and the case for him is that the tracking says the legs are top ten in the league. What the tracking cannot say is why a man who skates like that spent last season in his own end.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “He covers more ground than all but five forwards in the league and he sprints while he is doing it.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “a genuinely committed physical game from a man who is 182 pounds”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 837 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.3%
32nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 34 against. Expected: 30.8 and 35.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
29th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 61 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
88th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.67 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.1 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with SJS · 837 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
837 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tomas Hertl49.5%44.7%48.5%
Brent Burns46.2%47.2%47.0%
Mario Ferraro43.1%48.3%46.7%

49.5% together, 44.7% for him apart and 48.5% for Hertl apart. He was worse away from Hertl, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Hertl did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

131 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.