Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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28

Joshua Mahura

Florida Panthers Defense

Thirty-eight games at 24, and the 15th percentile for chance share on the worst club he could have played it for.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ANA1714504000205.014:18
2019-20ANA11134-32000119.116:14
2020-21ANA1313404000147.115:54
2021-22ANA38347-1412000368.314:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—7961420-1722000817.414:43

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 4 assists in 38 games for Anaheim — 7 points, a minus-14 and 12 penalty minutes at 14:04 a night.

Thirty-eight games is short of the 40 this book requires for a peer group, so the figures below are raw. 44.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 517 minutes. His ice went 13-29 against an expectation of 19.54-24.36 — six fewer goals for than the chances promised and five more against, which on 517 minutes is largely a goaltender.

Anaheim finished 76 points and 21st in chance share. A poor share on that club is context rather than a verdict.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-six shots in thirty-eight games, three of which went in. The median travels 39 feet and 45 per cent came from beyond forty — a shorter chart than most defencemen’s, which is the one genuinely interesting number here.

No power-play time. He has no power-play goals in 79 NHL games.

86.0 mph off the stick, which is soft, with the standing caveat that a maximum is a season best and thirty-eight games is fewer chances at one.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 193. 2.03 miles a game and a 21.7 mph top speed, both ordinary for fourteen minutes a night, and 1.3 bursts over 20 mph a game.

Twelve penalty minutes in thirty-eight games.

The Intangibles

Eighty-fifth overall in 2016, the third round, and 79 NHL games at 24 across four seasons — none of them more than thirty-eight games.

A career minus-17 in 79 games, all of it in Anaheim, and the club that drafted him let him go.

Florida has Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour, Radko Gudas, Marc Staal and Lucas Carlsson. He is the seventh or eighth defenceman on the best club in the league and the record does not argue for more. Five hundred minutes on a bad team is not evidence either way, and the honest thing is to say so and wait.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 517 minutes

Expected goals
44.5%
15th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.6%
13th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 29 against. Expected: 19.5 and 24.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
15th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 38 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
56th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.29 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.0 mph
20th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with ANA · 517 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ANA took 48.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.5% — 3.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
517 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kevin Shattenkirk41.6%47.4%47.8%
Troy Terry38.2%47.3%53.5%
Adam Henrique36.9%47.6%55.1%

41.6% together, 47.4% for him apart and 47.8% for Shattenkirk apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

47 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 61 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 45% from beyond forty.