Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Mason Marchment

Dallas Stars Left Wing

Forty-seven points in 54 games and the 2nd-highest chance share of the 393 qualified forwards — on the best club in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20TOR40110000030.08:05
2020-21FLA332810+418000504.014:08
2021-22FLA54182947+295310212114.914:07
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—91203858+337110217411.513:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 29 assists in 54 games for Florida — 47 points and a plus-29 at 14:07 a night, the 36th percentile. He had 11 points in 37 career NHL games before this season started.

64.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 727 minutes — the 2nd-highest of the 393 qualified forwards, behind Patrice Bergeron. His ice went 52-24 against an expectation of 39.65-21.87.

Read that against the club. Florida took 122 points, 56.5 per cent of the chances and 340 goals — first in the league at all three. A fourth-line winger on that team would have posted a good number, and he was not on the fourth line. The share is real and the environment did a great deal of the work.

The Finesse Game

3.78 even-strength points per 60 is the 3rd-highest of the 393 qualified forwards, behind Johnny Gaudreau and Jonathan Huberdeau. That is the figure that got him a job in Dallas and it is the one most likely to fall.

9.52 shots per 60 is the 84th percentile and eighteen goals on 121 shots is 14.9 per cent, the 80th. 57 per cent came from the slot at a median of 22 feet.

Four per cent of his points came on the power play, the 23rd percentile — 0:52 a night on a unit that did not need him. Everything he produced, he produced at five-on-five, which is the rarest way for a 47-point season to be built and the most likely to travel.

1.97 takeaways per 60 against 1.34 giveaways — the 72nd percentile and the 39th, which is a genuinely good ledger.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 212, and he uses it.

8.97 hits per 60 is the 85th percentile among forwards. 1.97 penalties drawn per 60 is the 5th-most of the 393 qualified forwards — he is fouled constantly, and 1.65 taken per 60 is the 93rd percentile, so he gives a lot of it back. Net plus-0.31, the 77th.

0.71 blocks per 60 is the 4th percentile. He does not defend and he was not asked to.

22.2 mph is the 38th percentile and 3.5 bursts per 60 the 27th, both middling. 10.01 miles per 60 is the 81st — he covers ground without going fast over it, which for a 6-5 winger is the forechecking profile rather than the rush one.

44.4 per cent of his even-strength time was in the attacking zone, the 94th percentile. The highest of any Star and it came in Florida.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, and he did not have an NHL season until he was 26. Ninety-one career games at 27, with 47 points arriving in the fifty-four most recent.

Dallas is asking a 27-year-old with one good half-season to replace top-six minutes. The five-on-five production says he can; the sample says nobody knows; the club he is leaving says be careful. Those three sit together and only the first of them is a number anybody will quote.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    64.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 54.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +9.5, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he covers ground without going fast over it, which for a 6-5 winger is the forechecking profile rather than the rush one”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “he is fouled constantly, and 1.65 taken per 60 is the 93rd percentile, so he gives a lot of it back”

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “he did not have an NHL season until he was 26”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 727 minutes

Expected goals
64.4%
100th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
60.4%
100th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 24 against. Expected: 39.6 and 21.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
100th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 54 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
55th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.35 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.2 mph
56th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with FLA · 727 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 64.4% — 7.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 727 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sam Reinhart67.8%60.2%55.2%
Anton Lundell61.3%66.7%53.1%
Gustav Forsling64.9%64.2%54.3%

67.8% together, 60.2% for him apart and 55.2% for Reinhart apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

161 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.