Florida Panthers

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 27 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 218 for, 237 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.7% 8th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 50.4% 16th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.48 10th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.24 3rd of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -2.4 20th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -19.3 28th of 32

Florida Panthers got 19.3 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 19 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 29.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 14.1%; of skater points
From under 26: 9.8%; of skater points
Homegrown: 23.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 68.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The second-most power-play time and the second-most penalty-killing time in the league, the twelfth-fewest chances allowed, and goaltending 28th against them.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

17th of 32

The numbers

16th of 32

The two place this roster within 1 spots of one another. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 22 of the 27 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 21 of 27 · 87% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (6)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 22 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Lars Eller, MacKenzie Entwistle, Casey Fitzgerald, Cole Reinhardt, Cole Schwindt, Donovan Sebrango.

Who this names 5 of 27 on the roster · 16% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Uvis Balinskis, John Beecher, Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, Lars Eller, MacKenzie Entwistle, Casey Fitzgerald, Gustav Forsling, Radko Gudas, Garnet Hathaway, Seth Jones, Sam Lafferty, Eetu Luostarinen, Jacob Markstrom, Niko Mikkola, Alexander Petrovic, Cole Reinhardt, Sam Reinhart, Akira Schmid, Cole Schwindt, Donovan Sebrango, Carter Verhaeghe.

What the Quant Says

A champion's roster that spent the year without its 2 best forwards. Barkov did not play a minute and Tkachuk managed 31 games, and Florida still finished 8th in shot-attempt share and 12th at preventing chances.

What broke was the net: 19.3 goals worse than the chances faced, 28th in the league, behind a defence conceding the twelfth-fewest of them. The special teams were excellent — second-most power-play time in hockey at a top-10 rate, and the third-best penalty kill on the second-heaviest workload. Continuity is 68.4 per cent, 25th. Get the 2 forwards back, settle the goaltending, and this is the same club it was.

What the Scout Says

The heaviest skilled team in hockey, assembled on purpose for 1 month of the year. Matthew Tkachuk cross-checks, talks, arrives late and has built a career on being worth more than the penalties he takes. Sam Bennett's 82 penalty minutes and willingness to cross the line have made him the most disliked opponent in several cities. Brady Tkachuk is a net-front presence who needs 2 men to move him and is a first-line winger anyway. Brad Marchand has spent 17 seasons making men who outweigh him by 50 pounds lose their tempers.

Underneath the nastiness the skill is real and the structure is honest — Aleksander Barkov is the most complete centre of his generation and the least loudly discussed, Anton Lundell would be a second-line centre almost anywhere else, and the checking line does its job without complaint. 2 things hang over it. The bodies: Barkov's knee and Matthew Tkachuk's availability are the whole season. And the position behind them, where 2 goaltenders in decline are being asked to hold up a contender.

Who this names 8 of 16 forwards · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: John Beecher, Lars Eller, MacKenzie Entwistle, Garnet Hathaway, Sam Lafferty, Anton Lundell, Cole Reinhardt, Cole Schwindt.

What the Quant Says

251 goals from a roster that spent the season missing its 2 best forwards. Aleksander Barkov did not play a minute — everything on his page is an older season — and Matthew Tkachuk managed 31 games, in which he took his shots from a median of 13 feet, the shortest in this edition alongside Tyler Bertuzzi.

What was left was still 8th in shot-attempt share. Sam Bennett scored 26 with 82 penalty minutes, Sam Reinhart 29 in 64 games taking half his attempts from inside 20 feet, Carter Verhaeghe 25, and Brad Marchand scored 27 goals in 52 games at 38 years old. Eetu Luostarinen takes 59 per cent of his shots from inside 20 from the checking line. The club finished 2.4 goals below expectation — essentially level. Get Barkov and Tkachuk back and this is a different section entirely.

What the Scout Says

Skill that goes to the dirty ice, which is the entire identity. Matthew Tkachuk works from closer to the net than any skilled forward in this edition, gets there because he is willing to be hit for it, and once there has the hands to finish what most men would merely deflect. Sam Reinhart is the opposite method to the same end: he arrives at the back post, does not miss, and plays the game on anticipation rather than force. Brady Tkachuk supplies more playmaking than his reputation carries — the assist total is the part people forget — and Sam Bennett has added a genuine passing layer in his thirties.

Brad Marchand shoots from further out than the men around him and converts at a higher rate, which is what an elite shot buys when the legs start to go, and his hands in tight have not moved at all. Carter Verhaeghe is the 1 player here whose game is pure open ice — he does not go to the net front and does not win wall battles, and speed into space is the first thing a checking series takes away. Eetu Luostarinen goes to the front and stays, which is why a checking centre plays 16 and a half minutes on a Cup team. Everything rests on Aleksander Barkov, whose hands in traffic at 6-3 are exceptional and whose knee is now the only question about him that matters.

Who this names 7 of 9 defencemen · 92% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Casey Fitzgerald, Donovan Sebrango.

What the Quant Says

13th in even-strength expected goals against, and the structure held up without Barkov in front of it. Gustav Forsling — 126th overall, waived by 2 organisations — played 22:38 a night at the 77th percentile in chance share, the best figures on the club against the other team's best, and had the goals go 65-72 in his favour.

Aaron Ekblad played 22:29 in his twelfth season. Seth Jones took 23:42. The page that shows what went wrong is Niko Mikkola's: chances dead level at 48.3 to 46.9, and the goals 38-47 against, a 25-goal swing in 1,197 minutes that no part of his play explains. Uvis Balinskis was on for 27 goals against 47 with the chances near even. Both are the same story told twice, and it is a goaltending story.

What the Scout Says

Built around 1 man who leaves the zone with the puck and a great deal of weight behind him. Gustav Forsling's whole game is escape: a quick first pass made possible by feet good enough to beat a forecheck that has taken the easy option away. He was waived by 2 organisations and has since played the hardest minutes on 2 championship teams, which is one of the great scouting stories of the decade.

The rest is size and unpleasantness. Niko Mikkola is 6-6, clears his crease, closes hard and is one of the few defencemen alive who can take a puck off a forward with an arm. Aaron Ekblad has let the offence go and is the man sent to clear the front. Radko Gudas is on the ice to hurt people and the club is not confused about it; the skating has been the limitation for years. Alexander Petrovic is effective in front of his own net and beaten wide by average wingers. Seth Jones is the mobile exception — still an excellent skater at 6-4, carrying the puck out cleanly and joining the rush without losing the gap behind him. What this group cannot do is defend the perimeter with speed, and what it does not need to is anyone's guess until April.

The roster

Evidence 20 Full 4 Light 3 No record

No measured season behind three of them: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Entwistle and Casey Fitzgerald. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Uvis Balinskis

#26

D · Florida Panthers

Undrafted out of Latvia, and 20 goals of bad luck in 770 minutes.

Aleksander Barkov

#16

C · Florida Panthers

He does not appear anywhere in last season, because he did not play a minute of it.

John Beecher

#17

C · Florida Panthers

A first-round pick, 6-3, and 28 points in 165 games.

Sam Bennett

C · Florida Panthers

82 penalty minutes, 26 goals, and the player other teams complain about in June.

Aaron Ekblad

D · Florida Panthers

The 1st overall pick in 2014, 800 games later, doing the quiet half.

Lars Eller

#20

C · Florida Panthers

1,184 games, and half his shots from inside 20 feet.

MacKenzie Entwistle

#44

RW · Florida Panthers

Minus 29 in 67 games, and no 5-on-5 record to explain it with.

Casey Fitzgerald

D · Florida Panthers

63 NHL games across 9 professional seasons, and no goals in any of them.

Gustav Forsling

#42

D · Florida Panthers

a 126th overall, 22 and a half minutes a night, and 2 goals.

Radko Gudas

D · Florida Panthers

885 games, 67 penalty minutes, and a median shot from 60 feet.

Garnet Hathaway

#21

RW · Florida Panthers

672 games, undrafted, and 1 goal.

Seth Jones

D · Florida Panthers

23 and 3-quarter minutes a night, and a reputation that has finally caught up with the results.

Sam Lafferty

#18

C · Florida Panthers

The 1st percentile in expected goals, in 249 minutes.

Anton Lundell

#15

C · Florida Panthers

44 points from the third line, and the best two-way centre nobody discusses.

Eetu Luostarinen

#27

C · Florida Panthers

59 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, from a checking-line centre.

Brad Marchand

#63

LW · Florida Panthers

5-9, 38 years old, 1,034 points.

Jacob Markstrom

#25

G · Florida Panthers

A .883, on a team that gave up the twelfth-fewest chances in the league.

Niko Mikkola

#77

D · Florida Panthers

6-6, chances dead level, and the goals went 33 to 58 against.

Alexander Petrovic

#36

D · Florida Panthers

6-5, and not a single shot from inside 20 feet all season.

Cole Reinhardt

LW · Florida Panthers

9 goals in 59 games, and the 4th percentile underneath them.

Sam Reinhart

#13

C · Florida Panthers

50 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, and a minus-18 that belongs to somebody else.

Akira Schmid

#40

G · Florida Panthers

6-5, a .8925, and the better of the 2 goaltenders Florida used.

Cole Schwindt

#79

C · Florida Panthers

5 goals in 29 games from the fourth line, and 3 in his last 10.

Donovan Sebrango

D · Florida Panthers

68 penalty minutes, no goals, and 60 shots from a median of 54 feet.

Brady Tkachuk

LW · Florida Panthers

61 per cent of the expected goals — 99th percentile — and his club still got outscored with him on the ice.

Matthew Tkachuk

#19

LW · Florida Panthers

13 feet — the shortest average shot in this book — from a man who played 31 games.

Carter Verhaeghe

#23

C · Florida Panthers

A third-round pick who has scored 172 goals, and shoots from 30 feet.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.