Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Sam Reinhart

Florida Panthers Center

Eighty-two points and the 27th-closest shot chart of the 393 qualified forwards, with thirteen penalty minutes in 78 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15BUF9011-1200030.010:22
2015-16BUF79231942-8880316513.916:50
2016-17BUF79173047-1189031789.617:13
2017-18BUF82252550-2426120518813.317:06
2018-19BUF82224365-101620118012.218:57
2019-20BUF69222850-152050214415.320:38
2020-21BUF54251540-2810100513019.219:32
2021-22FLA78334982+2513160618617.717:46
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—532167210377-7210362025117414.218:03

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

33 goals and 49 assists in 78 games — 82 points and a plus-25 at 17:46 a night, the 72nd percentile among forwards — with 13 penalty minutes. 3:21 a night on the power play is the 93rd percentile.

59.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,043 minutes — the 8th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards.

The Finesse Game

Sixty-five per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 93rd percentile, at a median of 18 feet — the 27th-closest shot chart of 393. Thirty-three goals on 186 shots is 17.7 per cent, the 27th-highest conversion rate in the league.

8.06 shots per 60 is the 63rd percentile. The volume is ordinary and everything else about the shooting is not: he goes to the same eighteen feet every night and a fifth of them go in.

Thirty-eight per cent of his points came on the power play, the 94th percentile — thirty-one of eighty-two, off 3:21 a night. That is the largest power-play dependence among Florida’s top forwards.

2.74 even-strength points per 60 is the 45th-most of 393, so the five-on-five half is real too.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196. 2.12 hits per 60 is the 23rd percentile and 1.30 blocks the 31st. There is no contact game.

21.6 mph is the 9th percentile among forwards and 2.6 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 15th, with 9.53 miles per 60 at the 37th. He is among the slowest forwards the league measures and he scored 33 goals from eighteen feet, which is the same sentence this book keeps writing about the men who stand in the right place.

84.5 mph is the 52nd-softest recorded shot of the 365 qualified forwards. The shot is soft, close and lethal, which is a combination the position rewards more than any other.

0.217 penalties taken per 60 is the 17th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards — thirteen minutes in seventy-eight games, on a club whose fourth-liner took ninety-two.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2014, and 532 NHL games at 26 with 377 points and a career minus-72 — seven Buffalo seasons on clubs that finished low, and one here.

Eighty-two points is a career high by seventeen and it arrived in his first season out of Buffalo, on the best team in the league. That is the whole caveat and it is a real one.

With Anton Lundell he took 63.8 per cent of the chances over 694 attempts and 57.7 without him, and Lundell without him fell to 49.3. With Mason Marchment 67.8 over 695 — and Marchment has gone to Dallas.

With Radko Gudas behind him 63.3 over 589 attempts. Every combination on this page is above sixty, which is what the best club in hockey looks like from the inside.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    65.3% of his attempts in the slot, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.17 penalty minutes a game over 78, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “he goes to the same eighteen feet every night and a fifth of them go in”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The shot is soft, close and lethal, which is a combination the position rewards more than any other.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,043 minutes

Expected goals
59.9%
98th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.7%
95th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 40 against. Expected: 55.0 and 36.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
70th
Numbers
98th

The numbers rank him 28 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
27th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.76 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.82 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.5 mph
37th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1043 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
FLA took 56.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.9% — 3.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,043 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
MacKenzie Weegar59.3%60.3%57.6%
Mason Marchment67.8%55.2%60.2%
Anton Lundell63.8%57.7%49.3%

59.3% together, 60.3% for him apart and 57.6% for Weegar apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

262 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 34 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.