Colorado Avalanche

What the Quant Says

312 goals, 3rd in the league, off 2.654 expected goals per 60 at even strength — 13th in hockey.

At five-on-five it scored 198 against an expectation of 165.4. Thirty-three goals of finishing gained, 3rd in the league. This is the most important number on the page. A club that created chances at a merely good rate converted them better than all but two teams, and the 3rd-place goal total is the product.

Mikko Rantanen had 92 points with 3:55 a night on the power play — the 99th percentile among forwards — and 38 per cent of his points on it. Nathan MacKinnon had 88 in 65 games off 13.10 shots per 60, the 6th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards, at 10.7 per cent from a median of 32 feet.

Cale Makar scored 28 goals from the blue line at 11.7 per cent — the 2nd-highest conversion rate of any qualified defenceman. Devon Toews scored 13 at 8.2 per cent, the 90th percentile.

Valeri Nichushkin scored 25 with 62 per cent of his shots from the slot at a median of 20 feet, and only 17 per cent of his points came on the power play. J.T. Compher scored 18 at 17.6 per cent off the 15th percentile in shot volume.

Nazem Kadri's 87 points and Andre Burakovsky's 61 are both gone. Evan Rodrigues arrives having taken 11.23 shots per 60, the 96th percentile, at 7.8 per cent from a median of 32 feet — a career-high 43 points from a man whose shot chart says it should not repeat.

What the Scout Says

MacKinnon and Rantanen are the story and the data tells it the other way round from everybody else. MacKinnon shoots 13.10 times per 60 — the 6th-highest rate in the league — from a median of 32 feet, converts at an ordinary 10.7 per cent, is fouled more relative to what he gives back than all but eight forwards, and hits full speed at the 99th percentile. He is a magnificent athlete. He is also at 41.5 per cent of the chances in the minutes without his winger.

Rantanen is 6-4 and 228 and covers less ground than almost anybody in the league — the 4th percentile — at a top speed at the 37th. Everything is hands, reach and release. Thirty-eight per cent of his points came on the power play, so the raw total flatters him; his even-strength rate is still the 87th percentile.

Nichushkin is the one to watch. Sixty-two per cent slot shots from twenty feet, a 23.4 mph top speed at the 94th percentile, bursts at the 92nd, and a chance share that holds up beside everybody. Twenty-five goals at 27 after 46 in six years is either a breakout or a season, and nothing here says which.

Compher scored 18 on 102 shots, which is the least stable shape a scoring year can have. Newhook manages the puck at 21 like a veteran and does not drive anything yet. O'Connor is genuinely one of the fastest men in the league and finishes at the 9th percentile. Lehkonen neither wins pucks nor loses them. Galchenyuk arrives with the 1st-percentile chance share in Arizona.

What the Quant Says

234 goals against, 7th in the league — off 2.459 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 8th.

At five-on-five it conceded 153 against an expectation of 153.0 — the chances and the goals agreed to the decimal, which is what a season of exactly average goaltending looks like.

Devon Toews recorded a 24.0 mph top speed and Cale Makar 23.7 — the two fastest of the 192 defencemen the league's tracking covers. They played 1,642 attempts together at 56.0 per cent, and each was better apart than together: Toews 55.6 without Makar, Makar 57.4 without Toews.

Makar played 25:40 a night for a plus-48 with 1.98 even-strength points per 60, the 2nd-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen. Toews played 25:22 for a plus-52 with 1.61 takeaways per 60 at the 90th percentile and 1.22 giveaways at the 15th. Between them: 1.94 and 1.13 hits per 60, the 14th and 34th percentiles. This pair defends by leaving with the puck and by nothing else.

Samuel Girard took 49.1 per cent of the chances across 1,264 minutes — the only Colorado defenceman over a thousand minutes to come in under fifty — and every forward's share falls when he is on: Rantanen 55.9 against 58.1, Nichushkin 53.6 against 58.6, MacKinnon 47.6 against 49.7.

Josh Manson recorded 8.45 hits per 60, the 90th percentile among defencemen, with 1.79 takeaways at the 95th and 1.32 penalties taken at the 94th. Erik Johnson blocked 6.13 per 60 at the 92nd percentile and shot at 101.0 mph at the 94th. Bowen Byram had 17 points in 30 games at twenty and a 23.4 mph top speed at the 96th percentile.

What the Scout Says

This is the best defence pair in hockey and the two men are the two fastest defencemen the league's tracking has recorded.

Makar is the player this book was waiting for: 6-0, 187 pounds, 25:40 a night, 86 points, a plus-48, 23.7 mph, bursts at the 99th percentile, and a chance share that does not move whoever leaves the ice. He does not hit anybody and there is no argument that he should. He does not walk in to shoot either — 50 feet median, 11 per cent slot — he simply shoots a great deal and gets more of it through than anyone else at the position. Second in even-strength scoring rate among defencemen; second in shooting percentage.

Toews is the quieter half and by top speed the faster: 24.0 mph, 1.61 takeaways against 1.22 giveaways per 60, a plus-52, and hits at the 14th percentile. Two defencemen who defend entirely by taking the puck and leaving with it, on the club that conceded the 7th-fewest goals in the league.

Girard is the counterexample and it is worth being honest about him. 5-10, 170 pounds, twenty-two minutes a night on a Stanley Cup team — the archetype this book likes best — and every forward's chance share drops when he is on the ice. Three real samples, all one way.

Manson hits at the 90th percentile and fouls at the 94th. Erik Johnson blocks and shoots at 101 mph at 34. Byram is the third-fastest defenceman here and has played 49 games in two years.

What the Quant Says

Colorado's goaltending came in exactly level with the chances it faced, 16th in the league. A Stanley Cup was won on precisely average goaltending, which is a rarer thing than it sounds and worth stating plainly.

Darcy Kuemper played 57 games and has gone to Washington.

Pavel Francouz went 15-5-1 with a .9161 and a 2.55 in 21 games, with 2 shutouts on 608 shots. His career line across 57 games is a .9207, which is genuinely excellent and built on a modest sample.

Alexandar Georgiev arrives having gone 15-10-2 with a .8978 and a 2.92 in 33 games for the Rangers. New York's goaltending finished 2nd in the league at plus-23.4 and almost all of it was Igor Shesterkin, who posted a .9346 in 53 games — 37 points of save percentage above his partner in the same crease. Georgiev's career line across 129 games is a .9085.

Jonas Johansson went 3-4-1 with a .8561 in 11 games and has a career .8830 across 32.

The champion has replaced a starter with a career backup and made him the number one. On the measured record the backup has the better career save percentage — .9207 against .9085 — and the club has made the other man the starter, which is a reasonable decision about workload and an odd one about the numbers. This is the largest open question about the defending champion.

What the Scout Says

The champion won with goaltending that came in exactly level with the chances it faced, traded the man who played 57 of the games, and handed the net to a career backup.

Georgiev is 6-1 and 178, small for the modern position, and survives by being quick and reactive rather than by taking away the angle before the shot. Five years in New York and never a season as anybody's starter; a career .9085 across 129 games; a .8978 last season in the same crease where Igor Shesterkin posted a .9346.

Francouz is 6-0 and plays a controlled, positional game — square, patient, reading early because he cannot fill the net. He has a career .9207 across 57 games, which is the better number of the two and the smaller sample. He was 28 before his first NHL game and has been a backup for all three seasons since.

Johansson is 6-5 and blocks, with a career .8830 across 32 games.

The defence in front of them is excellent and the chance share is 11th, which is not the same thing. On a club whose margin last season was 33 goals of finishing, the crease is the place where a repeat is most likely to come apart.

What the Quant Says

9th in the league at 6.897 expected goals per 60, over 5:27 a night — the most power-play time of any club.

Cale Makar took 3:50 a night from the point, the 99th percentile among defencemen, with 40 per cent of his points coming on it. Mikko Rantanen took 3:55, the 99th percentile among forwards, with 38 per cent of his. Those two are the unit.

Nathan MacKinnon took 3:40, the 96th percentile, and 31 per cent of his points came there. Nazem Kadri took 3:53, the 99th percentile, and has gone to Calgary.

Losing Kadri costs this unit its second right-handed shooting option and 8 power-play goals, and there is no obvious replacement on the roster: Evan Rodrigues arrives with 1:55 a night and Alex Galchenyuk with 0:49.

Devon Toews took 1:43 at the 73rd percentile among defencemen and only 21 per cent of his points came on it — he is the five-on-five half of the best defence pair in hockey and the power play is not where he is worth the most.

Valeri Nichushkin took 2:20 and took only 17 per cent of his production from it. On a club whose top two forwards are heavily power-play dependent, he is the five-on-five scorer, and that matters more now than it did in June.

What the Scout Says

Makar at the point, Rantanen on the wall, MacKinnon in motion, and a hole where Nazem Kadri used to stand.

The unit finished 9th while taking the most power-play time of any club, which is a slightly disappointing result from an enormous amount of ice. Makar and Rantanen both took the 99th percentile of it at their positions and both drew roughly 40 per cent of their points from it.

Kadri leaves with 3:53 a night and 8 power-play goals and there is no comparable replacement. Rodrigues arrives with 1:55; Galchenyuk with 49 seconds. The likeliest outcome is more time for Nichushkin, who took only 17 per cent of his production from the man advantage and is the club's best net-front player.

Toews runs the second unit and takes only a fifth of his points there, which is the correct use of a defenceman whose value is a first pass at five-on-five.

What the Quant Says

21st in the league at 6.536 expected goals against per 60, over 5:08 a night — more shorthanded time than all but six clubs, and a below-average result from it.

On a club that was 8th at even-strength defence, the penalty kill is the one defensive number that is not good, and it is the clearest weakness on a Stanley Cup roster.

Devon Toews killed 2:47 a night, the 90th percentile among defencemen, and Erik Johnson 2:36 at the 84th. Cale Makar killed 1:25, the 35th percentile — a club that has the best defenceman in the league and uses him sparingly shorthanded, which is a deliberate choice about workload.

Logan O'Connor killed 2:07, the 94th percentile among forwards, with 3.15 blocks per 60 at the 94th and a 23.7 mph top speed at the 98th. Darren Helm killed 1:55 at the 90th and Artturi Lehkonen 1:53 at the 88th.

Nico Sturm has gone to San Jose and Nazem Kadri to Calgary, and neither was a first-unit killer. Andrew Cogliano arrives at 35 having killed 1:46 a night, the 84th percentile.

Josh Manson takes 1.32 penalties per 60, the 94th percentile among defencemen, which is part of why the unit is asked to work as often as it is.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-first in the league, with more shorthanded time than all but six clubs, on a team that was 8th at even-strength defence. This is the one thing on the roster that does not work.

Toews and Erik Johnson take the defensive minutes and Makar is deliberately kept off it — 1:25 a night, the 35th percentile — which is a workload decision and probably the right one for a man playing 25:40.

O'Connor is the best forward on the unit and it is not close: 2:07 a night, blocks at the 94th percentile among forwards, a top speed at the 98th, and penalties drawn at the 92nd. Helm and Lehkonen take the other minutes and both are above the 88th percentile at the position. Cogliano arrives at 35 to do the same job.

What keeps the unit busy is Manson, at the 94th percentile in penalties taken among defencemen, and Rantanen at the 80th among forwards. A club that killed at the 21st-best rate cannot afford either as easily as Calgary or Carolina can.