This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Mikko Rantanen
Colorado Avalanche Right Wing
Ninety-two points, and 62.1 per cent of the chances in the minutes he played without Nathan MacKinnon.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | COL | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 8:57 |
| 2016-17 | COL | 75 | 20 | 18 | 38 | -25 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 133 | 15.0 | 18:03 |
| 2017-18 | COL | 81 | 29 | 55 | 84 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 178 | 16.3 | 18:58 |
| 2018-19 | COL | 74 | 31 | 56 | 87 | +13 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 193 | 16.1 | 20:51 |
| 2019-20 | COL | 42 | 19 | 22 | 41 | -2 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 107 | 17.8 | 18:57 |
| 2020-21 | COL | 52 | 30 | 36 | 66 | +30 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 177 | 17.0 | 19:55 |
| 2021-22 | COL | 75 | 36 | 56 | 92 | +35 | 56 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 254 | 14.2 | 20:59 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 408 | 165 | 243 | 408 | +44 | 216 | 65 | 0 | 23 | 1051 | 15.7 | 19:25 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
36 goals and 56 assists in 75 games — 92 points at 20:59 a night, plus-35, with 56 penalty minutes. Colorado won the Stanley Cup.
57.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,197 minutes, the 93rd percentile among forwards. His ice went 84-49 against an expectation of 59.2-43.86 — twenty-five more goals for than the chances promised and five more against.
Ninety-two points is a career high by six, in his seventh season.
The Finesse Game
9.68 shots per 60 is the 86th percentile among forwards at 14.2 per cent, the 75th. 96.3 mph is the 90th percentile.
3:55 a night on the power play is the 99th percentile among forwards and 38 per cent of his points came there, the 94th. That is the caveat on the 92 points and it is a real one.
2.58 even-strength points per 60 is the 87th percentile. Take the power play away and he is still a genuine first-line winger, which is more than the raw share suggests.
The Physical Game
6-4 and 228. 2.21 hits per 60 is the 24th percentile among forwards. He is enormous and he does not use it.
1.22 penalties drawn per 60 is the 85th percentile and 1.03 taken is the 80th, which counts against him.
8.87 miles per 60 is the 4th percentile among forwards against a top speed of 22.2 mph at the 37th. A 6-4 first-line winger who covers less ground than almost anybody in the league and never gets to top gear — the value is entirely in the hands, the reach and the release.
The Intangibles
Tenth overall in 2015, and 408 games with 408 points and a career plus-44, all for one club, and now a Stanley Cup.
With Nathan MacKinnon on the ice Colorado took 55.6 per cent of the chances; Rantanen without him was at 62.1, across 1,656 attempts together and 679 apart. MacKinnon without Rantanen was at 41.5. Both of those samples are real, and the reading they support is that this is the man driving the line — which is not the way anybody outside the room describes it.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
57.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +8.1, 96th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
- workhorse· carries the load at even strength
15:58 a game at five-on-five, 98th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
- sheltered· is started in the attacking end
60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 91st percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
“the value is entirely in the hands, the reach and the release”
“He is enormous and he does not use it.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,197 minutes
- Expected goals
- 57.4%
- 95th pct
- Shot attempts
- 56.2%
- 92nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 84 for, 49 against. Expected: 59.2 and 43.9.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 75 games
- Top speed
- 22.2 mph
- 55th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.64 a game
- Distance
- 3.10 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 96.3 mph
- 94th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 1197 minutes at five-on-five
- Gabriel Landeskogoff the roster46%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.4% — 5.5 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 1,197 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 55.6% | 62.1% | 41.5% |
| Cale Makar | 59.9% | 53.6% | 53.0% |
| Devon Toews | 57.5% | 57.4% | 54.4% |
55.6% together, 62.1% for him apart and 41.5% for MacKinnon apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left MacKinnon behind.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
363 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 37 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.