Colorado Avalanche

What the Quant Says

304 goals, first in the league — more than any club scored — on the 8th-best rate of chance creation at even strength, 2.710 expected goals per 60.

At five-on-five the club scored 197 goals against an expectation of 173.0, a finishing surplus of 24.0 goals and second in the league. It is the second half of that sentence which is strange, and the club page below returns to it.

Nathan MacKinnon had 140 points — 51 goals and 89 assists in all 82 games — on 405 shots, more than any player in this edition took. Mikko Rantanen had 104 points with 42 goals at 15.50 per cent, Cale Makar 90 from the blue line, Casey Mittelstadt 57, Jonathan Drouin 56 and Valeri Nichushkin 53 in 54 games.

Seven players reached fifty points and a defenceman was third among them.

Devon Toews added 50 and Ross Colton 40. Artturi Lehkonen had 34 in 45 games at the highest chance share on the roster.

What the Scout Says

Four hundred and five shots from one man, a one-timer from the left circle, and a winger who scores from sixteen feet.

Nathan MacKinnon took 405 shots, more than any player in this edition, from a median of 31 feet with 24 per cent from inside 20. The skating is the foundation and always has been — he arrives at the offensive blue line at a speed that forces a defenceman to turn, and everything else follows from that. He had 89 assists in 82 games and 564 in 791 across his career, and the passing has quietly become the better half of a player known for a shot.

Mikko Rantanen shoots from a median of 25 feet with 38 per cent from inside 20 and converted 15.50 per cent — a career 16.09 across 1,628 shots, which is an elite finishing rate sustained over nine seasons. At 6-4 and 228 he protects the puck below the goal line and nobody takes it off him.

Valeri Nichushkin shoots from a median of 16 feet with 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 and converted 17.72 per cent. He goes to the net and stays, at 6-4, and 28 goals in 54 games is what happens when a man that size decides to.

Jonathan Drouin takes 48 per cent from inside 20 and had 37 assists — a genuine playmaker at 5-11, with 241 career assists. Artturi Lehkonen shoots from a median of 15 feet with 57 per cent from inside 20. Casey Mittelstadt takes 40 per cent from inside 20 and had 39 assists.

What the Quant Says

254 goals against, 16th in the league, on the 11th-best chance suppression at even strength — 2.457 expected goals against per 60. The structure is better than the result, and the gap is the crease.

At five-on-five the club conceded 168 goals against an expectation of 157.6.

Devon Toews and Cale Makar are the two best career plus-minus rates in this edition. Toews is plus-156 in 397 games and Makar plus-108 in 315 — nobody else with two hundred and fifty games is close to either. Toews played 23:26 a night at 54.5 per cent of the chances and Makar 24:46 at 54.2.

Samuel Girard is 5-10 and 170 pounds — the lightest defenceman in this edition — and took 55.6 per cent of the chances, the best mark of any defenceman on the club.

Josh Manson has 572 penalty minutes in 578 games and his ice went 55-48 against an expectation of 51.80-46.70. That is three goals of scoring above what the chances were worth and one conceded above it — a second pair that came out roughly where it deserved, which on this club is its own achievement.

What the Scout Says

A pair that has been plus for four straight years, a hundred-and-seventy-pound defenceman who wins the chances, and one man doing all of the unpleasant work.

Cale Makar skates better than anybody at his position and it is not an argument. He carries the puck out of his own zone and through the neutral zone at a speed no forechecker can match, and the exit is finished before the pressure has arrived. He has 250 assists in 315 games and he walks the line and holds it on the power play. He is 6-0 and 187 and he defends with feet and stick rather than with body, and at 24:46 a night against the best line in every building it works.

Devon Toews defends the rush with a stick that arrives early, and 18 penalty minutes in 82 games at 23:26 a night is the discipline of a man who is never late. He has 182 assists in 397 games and moves the puck out on the first pass rather than on a carry.

Samuel Girard is 5-10 and 170 pounds and took 55.6 per cent of the chances. He is beaten physically by anybody who chooses to and he retrieves pucks by arriving first — 168 assists in 475 games, and a game built entirely on skating and anticipation.

Josh Manson clears the front of his own net and punishes people along the wall, at 6-3 and 218 with 572 penalty minutes in 578 games. Calvin de Haan arrives at 33 as the sixth defenceman and takes 6 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, which is to say none.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 10.4 goals worse than the chances faced, 24th in the league, in front of the 11th-best chance suppression in hockey. On a club that won fifty games, this is the page that decides the season.

Alexandar Georgiev went 38-18-5 with an .8966, a 3.02 average and 2 shutouts in 63 games, facing 1,770 shots. Thirty-eight wins is the most of any goaltender in this edition, and an .8966 is the lowest save percentage of the eight men who won thirty-five games. He carries a career .9081 across 254 games and posted a .9181 the season before, so the fall is real and recent.

Justus Annunen went 8-4-1 with a .9275, a 2.25 average and 2 shutouts in 14 games. Three hundred and nine points of save percentage between the two men in one crease is not a rounding error, and Georgiev played forty-nine more games.

Kaapo Kahkonen was signed after going 7-24-3 with an .8982 in San Jose, and carries a career .8985 across 139 games.

A club that scores 304 goals does not need a great goaltender. It has now assembled three who are not one.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-eight wins with an .8966, a .9275 in fourteen games behind him, and a signing that changes nothing.

Alexandar Georgiev is 6-1 and 178 and plays deep, relying on positioning and a quick glove rather than on aggression. He is undrafted, born in Bulgaria, and he has 136 wins in 254 games with a career .9081.

The rebound control is the weakness, and in a 63-game season behind a club that gives up chances from the perimeter that is survivable. It was not survivable often enough: an .8966 across 1,770 shots is 10.4 goals of damage that a club with the best offence in hockey should not have had to absorb.

Justus Annunen is 6-4 and 210 and posted a .9275 with 2 shutouts in 14 games. He is 24, a third-round pick, and he plays a bigger, calmer game than the man ahead of him — he takes away the top of the net by standing up rather than by reaching.

Kaapo Kahkonen is 6-2 and 217 and went 7-24-3 with an .8982 in San Jose. He has a career .8985 across 139 games and he was signed to be the backup to a goaltender who posted an .8966.

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at 7.204 expected goals per 60, over 5:20 a night. Middling, on a roster that should be better than middling.

Valeri Nichushkin scored 16 power-play goals in 54 games — the second-best rate in this edition, behind only Sam Reinhart — and he did it from the paint. He shoots from a median of 16 feet with 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20, which on a unit containing MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar is exactly the job that needed doing.

Mikko Rantanen scored 14, Nathan MacKinnon 10, Cale Makar 7, Artturi Lehkonen 7 and Jonathan Drouin 5.

Rantanen is 6-4 and 228 and shoots from a median of 25 feet with 38 per cent from inside 20 — the one-timer from the left circle is the club's most dangerous single shot, and 92 career power-play goals in 570 games says so. Makar walks the line and holds it, with 29 career power-play goals from the blue line.

Thirteenth is a failure of arrangement rather than of personnel.

What the Scout Says

Nichushkin in the paint, Rantanen in the left circle, Makar on the line — and thirteenth in the league.

Valeri Nichushkin scored 16 power-play goals in 54 games, the second-best rate in this edition. He stands in the blue paint at 6-4 and 210 and does not move, and the goals are deflections, rebounds and sticks on loose pucks from a median of sixteen feet.

Mikko Rantanen's one-timer from the left circle is the club's most dangerous single shot and 92 career power-play goals in 570 games is the evidence. Nathan MacKinnon scored 10 and is the man who enters the zone with it, which on most units is the hardest part and on this one is trivial.

Cale Makar walks the line and holds it, with 29 career power-play goals and 69 assists last season alone. Artturi Lehkonen scored 7 from in front and Jonathan Drouin 5 from the half-wall.

Five personnel any club in the league would take, arranged into the thirteenth-best power play in hockey.

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at 7.081 expected goals against per 60, over 5:06 a game. Exactly average, which on this roster is a fair description of the whole shorthanded operation.

Logan O'Connor scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 6 in 263 career games, and he is the club's best killer — 6-0 and 175, quick enough to pressure a point man and disciplined enough not to be beaten by it. Parker Kelly scored 2 and arrives from Ottawa. Cale Makar, Josh Manson and Miles Wood scored one each.

Josh Manson clears the front of his own net, and 572 penalty minutes in 578 games is what that costs. Devon Toews defends the rush with a stick that arrives early and takes 18 penalty minutes in 82 games doing it — among the lowest rates of any defenceman playing more than twenty-two minutes a night.

Ross Colton took 61 penalty minutes and Miles Wood 75, which on a club killing five minutes a night is a real contribution to the workload.

What the Scout Says

A fifteenth-ranked kill, one genuinely dangerous shorthanded forward, and a defenceman who takes almost no penalties at all.

Logan O'Connor scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 6 in 263 career games. At 6-0 and 175 he pressures the point man rather than sitting in a box, and the speed makes the gamble a reasonable one.

Parker Kelly arrives from Ottawa with 2 shorthanded goals and takes the fourth-line defensive shifts. Cale Makar, Josh Manson and Miles Wood scored one each.

Devon Toews defends the rush with a stick that arrives early and took 18 penalty minutes in 82 games, which for a defenceman playing 23:26 a night is among the lowest rates in this edition — and his own partner's is lower still. Josh Manson clears the front of his own net and pays 87 penalty minutes a season for it.

Ross Colton took 61 penalty minutes and Miles Wood 75. Two forwards putting the club a man short that often is a real cost on a kill that is merely average.