Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

7

Devon Toews

Colorado Avalanche Defense

The fastest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 25:22 a night for a plus-52.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NYI4851318+74102816.217:54
2019-20NYI6862228+1161011224.920:31
2020-21COL5392231+29162021217.424:46
2021-22COL66134457+52202031588.225:22
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—23533101134+89566084826.922:18

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 44 assists in 66 games — 57 points at 25:22 a night, the 96th percentile among defencemen — with a plus-52 and 20 penalty minutes.

55.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,358 minutes, the 91st percentile among defencemen, and 56.6 per cent of the shot attempts, the 96th. His ice went 80-43 against an expectation of 61.77-48.89 — eighteen more goals for than the chances promised and six fewer against.

1.96 even-strength points per 60 is the 3rd-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen.

The Finesse Game

8.2 per cent shooting from a defenceman is the 90th percentile and 5.66 shots per 60 is the 77th. Thirteen goals on 158 attempts.

1.61 takeaways per 60 is the 90th percentile among defencemen against 1.22 giveaways at the 15th — a rare pairing, and the clearest measurement of a defenceman who ends possessions cleanly.

1:43 a night on the power play is the 73rd percentile and only 21 per cent of his points came there. Fifty-seven points, almost all of it at even strength.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191. 1.94 hits per 60 is the 14th percentile among defencemen and 3.05 blocks is the 13th. He defends without contact, entirely, and the plus-52 is the answer to whether that works.

24.0 mph is the fastest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers. Colorado’s top pair is the two fastest defencemen in the league, and this is the faster of the two.

8.33 miles per 60 is the 35th percentile — like his partner, he covers ordinary ground very quickly.

0.36 penalties taken per 60 is the 15th percentile — 20 penalty minutes in 66 games at twenty-five a night.

The Intangibles

One hundred and eighth overall in 2014 by the Islanders, fourth round, and 235 NHL games at 28 with a career plus-89.

He and Cale Makar played 1,642 attempts together at 56.0 per cent, and each was better apart than together — Toews 55.6 without Makar, Makar 57.4 without Toews. That is a very unusual reading for a top pair and the honest interpretation is that both were good enough to carry other people, so splitting them cost nothing.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.8% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.9, 97th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    20:35 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “24.0 mph is the fastest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “a rare pairing, and the clearest measurement of a defenceman who ends possessions cleanly”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,358 minutes

Expected goals
55.8%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.6%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 80 for, 43 against. Expected: 61.8 and 48.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
24.0 mph
100th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.32 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.52 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.1 mph
77th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1358 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.8% — 3.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,358 minutes at five-on-five — 92nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cale Makar56.0%55.6%57.4%
Mikko Rantanen57.5%54.4%57.4%
Nathan MacKinnon50.7%59.9%54.3%

56.0% together, 55.6% for him apart and 57.4% for Makar apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

197 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.