Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

95

Andre Burakovsky

Seattle Kraken Left Wing

The 9th-longest median shot of 393 forwards and the 7th-lowest slot share, and sixty-one points off it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15WSH5391322+12102026513.912:55
2015-16WSH79172138+41200112613.513:01
2016-17WSH64122335+131420111110.813:16
2017-18WSH56121325+3272058414.313:50
2018-19WSH76121325+21410410012.011:08
2019-20COL58202545+112220610319.415:12
2020-21COL53192544+41040310218.615:06
2021-22COL80223961+121840514914.816:16
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—519123172295+611271702784014.613:48

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games for Colorado, 22 goals and 39 assists at 16:16 a night, plus-12, eighteen penalty minutes, 149 shots. Twenty-third overall in 2013 by Washington, eight seasons, 519 games, 295 points. Sixty-one points is a career high by sixteen.

The Finesse Game

His median shot travelled 33.8 feet, the 9th-longest of the 393 forwards who played forty games, and 29.4 per cent of his attempts came from the slot — the 7th-lowest.

A sixty-one-point scorer who does not go to the net is an unusual object and the shooting percentage says it worked: 14.8 per cent is the 79th percentile.

2.43 even-strength points per 60 is the 86th percentile and only eighteen per cent of his points came on the power play, off 2:01 a night. He produced at five-on-five and Colorado had other men for the rest.

53.4 per cent of the expected goals and 55.2 per cent of the attempts, out of 56.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 133rd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

Both of those shares were produced on the club that won the Stanley Cup — Colorado finished 1st in the league in expected goals per 60 at even strength — and they will not travel to a club that finished 30th.

His ice went 70-59 against an expectation of 51.92-45.30. Eighteen goals of surplus in front and fourteen more against than the model asked, which is the largest pair of deviations in this chapter and says the ice he was on was extremely eventful.

The Physical Game

2.26 hits per 60 is the 25th percentile and 1.57 blocks the 43rd at 6-3 and 203 pounds. 0.69 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.42 taken, eighteen penalty minutes in eighty games.

Nothing in the physical file is above the middle of the league.

The Intangibles

10.19 miles per 60 is the 92nd percentile among forwards and 8.8 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 82nd, at 6-3 and 203 pounds.

Against a 22.8 mph top speed at only the 72nd. A big winger who covers ground constantly without a top gear is a coherent shape and it is what the thirty-four-foot median implies about where he plays.

He is 27 and has just signed with a club that scored 216 goals. The scoring rate, the ground covered and the shot geography are real. The plus-12, the possession shares and the eighteen goals of on-ice surplus were Colorado’s, and none of the three is his to bring.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    30.4% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    6 of 65 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 9.2%, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “10.19 miles per 60 is the 92nd percentile among forwards and 8.8 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 82nd, at 6-3 and 203 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,145 minutes

Expected goals
53.4%
79th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.2%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 70 for, 59 against. Expected: 51.9 and 45.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
79th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.1 mph
82nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with COL · 1145 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.4% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,145 minutes at five-on-five — 81st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nazem Kadri52.2%54.5%58.7%
Samuel Girard52.1%54.1%47.6%
Cale Makar56.6%51.4%56.6%

52.2% together, 54.5% for him apart and 58.7% for Kadri apart. Kadri was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

214 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 23% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.