This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Nathan MacKinnon

Thirteen point one shots per 60 at the 98th percentile and 20.8 bursts over 20 mph at the 99th — and 41.5 per cent of the chances without Mikko Rantanen.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2013-14	COL	82	24	39	63	+20	26	8	0	5	241	10.0	17:21
2014-15	COL	64	14	24	38	-7	34	3	0	2	192	7.3	17:03
2015-16	COL	72	21	31	52	-4	20	7	0	6	245	8.6	18:52
2016-17	COL	82	16	37	53	-14	16	2	2	4	251	6.4	19:57
2017-18	COL	74	39	58	97	+11	55	12	0	12	284	13.7	19:54
2018-19	COL	82	41	58	99	+20	34	12	0	6	365	11.2	22:05
2019-20	COL	69	35	58	93	+13	12	12	0	4	318	11.0	21:13
2020-21	COL	48	20	45	65	+22	37	8	0	2	206	9.7	20:22
2021-22	COL	65	32	56	88	+22	42	7	0	5	299	10.7	21:04
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	638	242	406	648	+83	276	71	2	46	2401	10.1	19:45

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

32 goals and 56 assists in 65 games — 88 points at 21:04 a night, plus-22, with 42 penalty minutes. Colorado won the Stanley Cup.

52.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,060 minutes, the 69th percentile among forwards. His ice went 67-45 against an expectation of 49.49-44.92 — eighteen more goals for than the chances promised.

3.25 even-strength points per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards and 88 points in 65 games is a 111-point pace.

The Finesse Game

13.10 shots per 60 is the 6th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards. Two hundred and ninety-nine attempts in 65 games, at 10.7 per cent — the 42nd percentile.

35 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 5th percentile, on a median distance of 32 feet at the 94th. He shoots from range, constantly, and converts at an ordinary rate. That is the whole shape of his offence and it is why 299 shots produced 32 goals.

2.45 giveaways per 60 is the 91st percentile and counts against him, which is the price of carrying the puck into the zone every shift.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 200. 1.71 penalties drawn per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards and his drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.92 is the 9th-highest of the 393 qualified. Nobody is fouled more relative to what he gives back.

23.8 mph is the 98th percentile among forwards and 20.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 99th — the second-highest rate of any forward the tracking covers. He is at full speed more often than almost anyone alive.

2.98 hits per 60 is the 36th percentile. The speed is the physical game.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2013, and 638 games with 648 points and a career plus-83, all for one club, and now a Stanley Cup.

With Mikko Rantanen on the ice Colorado took 55.6 per cent of the chances; MacKinnon without him was at 41.5, across 1,656 attempts together and 511 apart. Rantanen without MacKinnon was at 62.1. Five hundred attempts is a real if modest sample, and it points somewhere uncomfortable. It does not say MacKinnon is not a great player — 3.25 points per 60 at even strength says otherwise — but it does say the ice he plays on is Rantanen’s as much as his.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
30.0% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
workhorse· carries the load at even strength
16:18 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
sheltered· is started in the attacking end
61% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone
“He is at full speed more often than almost anyone alive.”
agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation
“Nobody is fouled more relative to what he gives back.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,060 minutes

Expected goals: 52.4%; 73rd pct
Shot attempts: 54.4%; 86th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 45 against. Expected: 49.5 and 44.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

99th

Numbers

73rd

The report ranks him 26 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed: 23.8 mph; 99th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 7.31 a game
Distance: 3.37 miles a game
Hardest shot: 94.3 mph; 87th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1060 minutes at five-on-five

Mikko Rantanen80%
Gabriel Landeskogoff the roster41%
Andre Burakovskynow SEA29%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.4% — 0.5 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,060 minutes at five-on-five — 70th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Mikko Rantanen	55.6%	41.5%	62.1%
Cale Makar	56.2%	46.3%	56.9%
Devon Toews	50.7%	54.3%	59.9%

55.6% together, 41.5% for him apart and 62.1% for Rantanen apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Rantanen and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

383 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.