Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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15

Alex Newhook

Colorado Avalanche Center

Thirty-three points at twenty-one on thirteen minutes a night, with bursts over 20 mph at the 91st percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21COL6033+5200080.013:41
2021-22COL71132033+111230511311.513:34
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—77132336+161430512110.713:35

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 20 assists in 71 games — 33 points at 13:34 a night, plus-11, with 12 penalty minutes. Colorado won the Stanley Cup.

48.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 889 minutes, the 39th percentile among forwards. His ice went 34-22 against an expectation of 31.23-33.03 — eleven fewer goals against than the chances promised, which on a club whose goaltending finished exactly league-average is a strange and pleasant piece of luck.

Thirty-three points in a first full season at twenty-one.

The Finesse Game

7.04 shots per 60 is the 46th percentile among forwards at 11.5 per cent. 42 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 16th percentile, on a median distance of 29 feet at the 86th — he shoots from further out than a young centre should.

0.81 giveaways per 60 is the 7th percentile among forwards. The puck management at twenty-one is genuinely notable, and it comes with 1.25 takeaways at the 23rd — he is careful rather than disruptive.

1.89 even-strength points per 60 is the 56th percentile and 18 per cent of his points came on the power play.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 200. 2.49 hits per 60 is the 28th percentile and 2.24 blocks is the 77th.

11.1 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 91st percentile among forwards at a top speed of 22.4 mph at the 49th. He is not fast in the maximum; he is at his own top gear constantly, which for a small centre is the more useful of the two.

0.37 penalties taken per 60 is the 19th percentile.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2019, and 77 NHL games at 21 with a career plus-16 and a Stanley Cup.

With Logan O’Connor on the ice Colorado took 37.5 per cent of the chances and Newhook without him was at 53.0, across 456 attempts together. That is a fifteen-point split. It does not say which of the two was the problem, and both of them are 21-to-26-year-olds the club is about to give more minutes to.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 889 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 22 against. Expected: 31.2 and 33.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
44th

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 71 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
64th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.0 mph
49th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 889 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 889 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Samuel Girard47.1%49.4%49.7%
J.T. Compher46.9%49.5%49.0%
Erik Johnson47.3%49.3%51.8%

47.1% together, 49.4% for him apart and 49.7% for Girard apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

142 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.