Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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42

Josh Manson

Colorado Avalanche Defense

Eight point four five hits per 60 at the 90th percentile and takeaways at the 95th — from a defenceman who fouls at the 94th.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15ANA28033+131000260.018:26
2015-16ANA7151015+1174001885.718:47
2016-17ANA8251217+1482011885.718:38
2017-18ANA8073037+34620021176.020:21
2018-19ANA7431316-862000963.122:18
2019-20ANA50189-1037000641.620:38
2020-21ANA23167-330001195.317:59
2021-22ANA/COL6761016-1165000926.518:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4752892120+284430155904.819:44

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 10 assists in 67 games for Anaheim and here — 16 points at 18:59 a night, minus-11, with 65 penalty minutes.

49.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,110 minutes, the 48th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 38-46 against an expectation of 43.22-44.23 — five fewer goals for than the chances promised.

He came here at the deadline from a club that finished 25th, which is most of what the 49.4 per cent is describing.

The Finesse Game

0.85 even-strength points per 60 is the 37th percentile among defencemen and 28 goals in 475 career games. There is no offence.

19 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 92nd percentile among defencemen on a median of 47 feet — an unusual profile for a defensive defenceman, and it is why 6.5 per cent of them went in at the 77th percentile.

1.79 takeaways per 60 is the 95th percentile among defencemen. That is the figure that separates him from an ordinary heavy defenceman: he wins pucks with his stick as well as taking men with his body.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 218. 8.45 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among defencemen and 443 penalty minutes in 475 career games.

1.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile among defencemen and it is a fault — a drawn-minus-taken of minus-0.71 at the 6th percentile. Sixty-five penalty minutes in 67 games is what that costs.

21.6 mph is the 30th percentile among defencemen and 8.22 miles per 60 is the 24th. He is not fast and he does not cover ground; he closes and he finishes.

The Intangibles

One hundred and sixtieth overall in 2011 by Anaheim, sixth round, and 475 NHL games at 30 with a career plus-28.

With Erik Johnson on the ice Anaheim and Colorado took 54.1 per cent of the chances and Manson without him was at 42.6, across 318 attempts — a small sample. Colorado has just won a Cup and lost Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky and Darcy Kuemper. Manson is the piece it kept, and on a blue line with the two fastest defencemen in the league he is the one who hits somebody.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    19.0% of his attempts in the slot, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    3 of 71 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.2%, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    41% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 10th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “8.45 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among defencemen”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “he wins pucks with his stick as well as taking men with his body”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile among defencemen and it is a fault”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,110 minutes

Expected goals
49.4%
51st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.6%
61st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 46 against. Expected: 43.2 and 44.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
51st

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.0 mph
76th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with ANA · 769 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,110 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cam Fowler52.8%44.3%48.5%
Troy Terry58.4%46.9%49.6%
Isac Lundestrom44.0%51.0%43.5%

52.8% together, 44.3% for him apart and 48.5% for Fowler apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

116 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 47 feet. 16% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 61% from beyond forty.