Colorado Avalanche

Central Division, Western Conference · 23 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 261 for, 175 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 56.7% 2nd of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 56.9% 1st of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.90 23rd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.47 5th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +16.3 5th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +23.4 2nd of 32

Colorado Avalanche scored 16.3 more goals than their chances were worth and got 23.4 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 40 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 30.5; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 30.1%; of skater points
From under 26: 5.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 29.9%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 74.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

1st in the league in chance share, 1st in creating them, 2nd in goaltending, and 302 goals — the most complete team in this edition, and 40 of those goals were fortune.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

1st of 32

The numbers

4th of 32

The two place this roster within 3 spots of one another. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 21 of the 23 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 19 of 23 · 90% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (4)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 21 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Zakhar Bardakov, Vinnie Hinostroza, Noah Juulsen, Zachary L'Heureux.

Who this names 6 of 23 on the roster · 31% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Zakhar Bardakov, Mackenzie Blackwood, Gavin Brindley, Brent Burns, Vinnie Hinostroza, Noah Juulsen, Nazem Kadri, Brett Kulak, Zachary L'Heureux, Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Malinski, Martin Necas, Nicolas Roy, Jaden Schwartz, Fedor Svechkov, Devon Toews, Scott Wedgewood.

What the Quant Says

The best team in the league by every process measure there is. 1st in chance share at 56.9 per cent, 1st in even-strength expected goals per 60, 7th at preventing them, 302 goals scored and 203 conceded — the fewest in hockey by 23.

And it was still flattered. Colorado finished 16.3 goals above expectation, 5th, and got 23.4 more saves than the chances warranted, 2nd — roughly 40 goals of 100-goal differential. 3rd on the penalty kill, 23rd on the power play. The team underneath is genuinely the best in the league. The record is better than even that, and the goaltending that produced it had never done anything like it before.

What the Scout Says

The most complete top end in hockey, and a roster deliberately stocked underneath it with men who do the unglamorous half. Nathan MacKinnon's skating is the most physically impressive thing in the league — speed carrying weight, a stride that lets him enter the zone at pace while still protecting the puck, so defencemen back off and the moment they back off he has the blue line. Cale Makar is not fast in a straight line so much as instantly at top speed, with edges that let him change direction without losing any of it, and forecheckers do not pin him because they cannot get close enough.

What surrounds them is unusual for a club with this much star power. Artturi Lehkonen goes into corners against defencemen with 50 pounds on him. Parker Kelly finishes checks, kills, and gets to the interior every shift. Josh Manson is one of the more genuinely feared defencemen to play against in the corners. Brock Nelson is very difficult to move from the net front. Gabriel Landeskog came back from 3 lost seasons and a cartilage transplant and has still not decided to protect himself. The one soft place is the crease.

Who this names 8 of 14 forwards · 64% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Zakhar Bardakov, Vinnie Hinostroza, Nazem Kadri, Zachary L'Heureux, Nicolas Roy, Fedor Svechkov.

What the Quant Says

The best attack in hockey by every measure that exists. 1st in the league in even-strength expected goals per 60 at 3.11, 1st in chance share at 56.9 per cent, and 302 goals scored — the most in the league, 6 clear of Carolina.

Nathan MacKinnon put up 127 points and was plus-57, the highest figure in this edition, on 350 shots. Martin Necas took 8 years to arrive and then scored 100 points and was plus-47. Brock Nelson scored 33 goals at 34 from a median of 22 feet, Artturi Lehkonen 21 from 19 feet at the 98th percentile in chance share, and Parker Kelly — undrafted, on the fourth line — scored 21. Gabriel Landeskog came back from 3 lost seasons and was plus-29. The caution is the finishing: Colorado scored 16.3 goals above expectation, 5th in the league, so even this attack was flattered.

What the Scout Says

2 players who can decide any game and a supporting group built to be exactly what they need. Nathan MacKinnon has added a genuinely dangerous one-timer to a game that used to be all rush, and the playmaking has grown every year — he is now as likely to slow down and find the late man as to shoot. Martin Necas is among the quickest forwards in the league with the puck and uses it to enter with control rather than to chase dump-ins, and the hands work at that speed, which is what makes him more than a track athlete; he does not forecheck with force and does not win pucks along the wall.

The rest is honest work. Artturi Lehkonen does his best offensive work by getting to a spot and being ready, and he is genuinely difficult to play against for his size. Brock Nelson has a quick heavy release from the slot and takes a large share of his goals from the net front where he cannot be moved. Jaden Schwartz protects pucks below the goal line and finds the seam. Nazem Kadri's hands still work in traffic and he remains one of the more disliked opponents of his era. Gabriel Landeskog reads the game exactly as he always did and the knee took the rest. Gavin Brindley is the one to watch — quick, changes direction well, and goes to the net rather than living on the perimeter, at a size where a heavy forecheck simply removes him.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 92% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Noah Juulsen.

What the Quant Says

5th in even-strength expected goals against, 203 goals conceded — fewest in the league by 23 — and a blue line where every regular finished in the 86th percentile or better.

Cale Makar put up 79 points in 24:51 a night at the 91st percentile; Devon Toews, who makes it possible and gets a fraction of the attention, posted 58.5 per cent at the 98th. Josh Manson was plus-42 while taking 91 penalty minutes. Brent Burns, at 41 years old and 1,579 games, was plus-33 playing 19 minutes a night at the 86th percentile. And Sam Malinski, undrafted out of Cornell, put up 40 points and plus-43 — the highest figure in this edition — in sheltered minutes at the 99th percentile. The one structural worry is Makar's durability: a defence organised around 1 man feels every game he misses.

What the Scout Says

The best pairing in hockey and a group behind it that knows precisely what it is for. Cale Makar does not carry into trouble; he carries until a lane appears and then either shoots or slides it to a man arriving late, and defensively he ends more plays with his feet than his stick, closing gaps so tightly that attackers run out of room at the blue line. He will not clear a crease by force and does not try — what he has instead of size is the ability to remove the situation entirely, retrieving pucks before pressure arrives because he gets there first.

Devon Toews is the reason the arrangement works: a first pass that is quick and almost always right, an ability to beat a forecheck by himself, and a decision not to carry or activate because his partner does both and somebody has to be home. He closes gaps early and defends the rush by taking away time. Josh Manson supplies the weight — he hits hard and often, clears the front of his net, and has paid for it in games missed. Brent Burns still has the shot and the puck decisions have got simpler, which is the correct adjustment, and the skating is what has gone. Brett Kulak escapes pressure and defends real speed and does not move people. Sam Malinski starts plays rather than finishing them, without the puck-management errors that usually accompany a defenceman that willing.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

Scott Wedgewood, a career backup, posted a .9213 across 45 games at 33 — the best save percentage of any goaltender in this edition — with a 2.02 average and 4 shutouts. Mackenzie Blackwood took 39 and stopped .9035.

Together they came in 23.4 goals better than the chances faced, 2nd in the league behind only Washington. That is the number to hold lightly. Colorado already allowed the fewest chances in hockey; a tandem stopping them at this rate on top of that is the definition of a season that does not repeat, and it is worth roughly 40 goals when combined with the finishing surplus. The team underneath is genuinely the best in the league. The record is better than even that.

What the Scout Says

The one position on this roster that is not settled. Mackenzie Blackwood looks immovable when he is on, and the consistency has always been the issue rather than the technique — he is prone to stretches where the tracking goes and pucks he normally absorbs get past him, his rebound control is ordinary, and he is not quick laterally for his size, which is the specific thing separating him from a genuine starter. He spent his best years facing 40 shots a night on rebuilding teams and never visibly stopped competing.

Scott Wedgewood plays a compact, technical game — square, quiet and economical rather than athletic — and he does not fight the puck or scramble unless the play forces it. 8 organisations and a decade of being the man who plays when somebody else is hurt, with a temperament even to the point of being unremarkable. Behind a club that concedes as little as this one, both of them will look better than they are; the question is what happens when a series makes every save matter.

The roster

Evidence 14 Full 9 Light 0 No record

Zakhar Bardakov

C · Colorado Avalanche

A seventh-round Russian who arrived at 24 and played 60 games without anyone noticing.

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39

G · Colorado Avalanche

A big goaltender with a long history of carrying bad teams, finally on a good one.

Gavin Brindley

#54

C · Colorado Avalanche

5-8, 21 years old, and already holding down an NHL job on a contender.

Brent Burns

#84

D · Colorado Avalanche

41 years old, 1,579 games, and he was plus-33 playing 19 minutes a night.

Vinnie Hinostroza

#24

C · Colorado Avalanche

A small, quick veteran winger who has spent 11 years being the thirteenth forward somewhere.

Noah Juulsen

#47

D · Colorado Avalanche

A former first-round pick, 10 years on, playing a sheltered third pairing and doing it competently.

Nazem Kadri

#91

C · Colorado Avalanche

A 17-year veteran whose ugly plus-minus belongs mostly to a different team.

Parker Kelly

#17

C · Colorado Avalanche

An undrafted fourth-liner who scored 21 goals, which is not what fourth-liners do.

Brett Kulak

#27

D · Colorado Avalanche

A dependable third-pairing defenceman on his fourth organisation, playing 83 games without incident.

Zachary L'Heureux

#68

LW · Colorado Avalanche

A first-round agitator with 25 games last season and a role still to be earned.

Gabriel Landeskog

#92

LW · Colorado Avalanche

A captain who missed 3 full seasons to a knee, came back, and was plus-29.

Artturi Lehkonen

#62

LW · Colorado Avalanche

A Finnish winger who scores more than he is given credit for and defends like his job depends on it.

Nathan MacKinnon

#29

C · Colorado Avalanche

The fastest hard skater in hockey, still adding points at 30, and the engine of everything this team does.

Cale Makar

D · Colorado Avalanche

The best defenceman in the world, and the argument that skating is a more valuable thing to be built out of than size.

Sam Malinski

#70

D · Colorado Avalanche

An undrafted defenceman who was plus-43, which is the highest number in this edition.

Josh Manson

#42

D · Colorado Avalanche

A heavy defensive defenceman who was plus-42 and took 91 penalty minutes doing it.

Martin Necas

#88

C · Colorado Avalanche

A first-round pick who took 8 years to arrive and then scored 100 points.

Brock Nelson

#11

C · Colorado Avalanche

1,000 games of quiet, heavy, reliable centre play, and 33 goals at 34.

Nicolas Roy

#10

C · Colorado Avalanche

A 6-4 centre who wins faceoffs, kills penalties and has been on a Cup team doing it.

Jaden Schwartz

#17

C · Colorado Avalanche

A 15-year veteran with a Cup, still useful in a middle-6 role at 34.

Fedor Svechkov

C · Colorado Avalanche

A first-round Russian centre in a fourth-line role, defensively sound and offensively invisible.

Devon Toews

D · Colorado Avalanche

The defenceman who makes the best defenceman in the world possible, and gets a fraction of the attention.

Scott Wedgewood

#41

G · Colorado Avalanche

A career backup who, at 33, posted the best save percentage of any goaltender in this edition.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.