Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

43

Darren Helm

Colorado Avalanche Center

The 2nd-lowest giveaway rate of the 393 qualified forwards, at 10:33 a night in a fifteenth season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08DET7000-2200070.07:00
2008-09DET16011-74000290.012:26
2009-10DET75111324-2180331656.714:30
2010-11DET82122032+9160221776.813:18
2011-12DET6891726+5120021247.314:31
2012-13DET10000200010.012:27
2013-14DET4212820+2141238314.515:10
2014-15DET75151833+7123211609.415:50
2015-16DET77131326-2320031657.915:04
2016-17DET508917-620201988.215:22
2017-18DET75131831+3390201419.215:34
2018-19DET6171017-11200101076.514:34
2019-20DET689716-6370101028.813:44
2020-21DET47358-310000833.614:41
2021-22COL687815-514011937.510:33
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—812119147266-182526141615357.814:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 8 assists in 68 games — 15 points at 10:33 a night, minus-5, with 14 penalty minutes. Colorado won the Stanley Cup.

46.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 602 minutes, the 23rd percentile among forwards. His ice went 16-26 against an expectation of 20.11-22.86.

10:33 a night is the 4th percentile in ice time among the 393 qualified forwards.

The Finesse Game

0.59 giveaways per 60 is the 2nd-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. Only Justin Danforth turned the puck over less often, and it comes with 2.09 takeaways at the 79th percentile — he wins pucks and never gives them back.

7.78 shots per 60 is the 59th percentile at 7.5 per cent, the 16th. Seven goals on 93 attempts.

84.3 mph is the 13th percentile among forwards. No shot; a stick and a forecheck.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 192. 9.53 hits per 60 is the 87th percentile among forwards and 2.26 blocks is the 77th, at ten and a half minutes a night.

1:55 a night shorthanded is the 90th percentile among forwards. Six minutes of the ten and a half were on special teams or in his own end.

22.2 mph is the 36th percentile at 35 — the speed that made his name is measurably gone, and the work is not.

The Intangibles

One hundred and thirty-second overall in 2005 by Detroit, fifth round, and 812 NHL games at 35 with 266 points, and a Stanley Cup at thirty-five, fifteen years after his first NHL game.

With Cale Makar on the ice Colorado took 55.7 per cent of the chances and Helm without him was at 43.7, across 274 attempts — which is a small sample of a fourth-liner being handed the best defenceman in the league for a shift. He is 35, and Colorado has four bottom-six jobs to fill.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 9th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he wins pucks and never gives them back”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:55 a night shorthanded is the 90th percentile among forwards.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 602 minutes

Expected goals
46.8%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.5%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 16 for, 26 against. Expected: 20.1 and 22.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
29th

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 68 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.21 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.3 mph
36th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 602 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 5.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 602 minutes at five-on-five — 25th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Johnson43.6%48.9%52.3%
Jack Johnson37.9%51.3%48.3%
Logan O'Connor51.1%44.7%47.6%

43.6% together, 48.9% for him apart and 52.3% for Johnson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

107 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.