This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Cale Makar

Eighty-six points at 25:40 a night, and the second-fastest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2019-20	COL	57	12	38	50	+12	12	4	0	4	121	9.9	21:01
2020-21	COL	44	8	36	44	+17	12	4	0	3	104	7.7	24:19
2021-22	COL	77	28	58	86	+48	26	9	0	6	240	11.7	25:40
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	178	48	132	180	+77	50	17	0	13	465	10.3	23:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

28 goals and 58 assists in 77 games — 86 points at 25:40 a night, the 98th percentile among defencemen — with a plus-48 and 26 penalty minutes. Colorado won the Stanley Cup in six games over Tampa Bay.

56.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,500 minutes, the 94th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 89-48 against an expectation of 68.8-52.84 — twenty more goals for than the chances promised and five fewer against.

1.98 even-strength points per 60 is the 2nd-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen, behind only Roman Josi.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-eight goals on 240 shots is 11.7 per cent, the 2nd-highest conversion rate of the 202 qualified defencemen. Only Adam Boqvist, on a fifth of the volume, finished higher.

7.29 shots per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen and 3:50 a night on the power play is the 99th, with 40 per cent of his points coming there. 99.4 mph is the 91st percentile.

The median shot travels 50 feet, which is ordinary for a defenceman, and 11 per cent come from the slot, which is also ordinary. He does not score by walking in; he scores by shooting a great deal from the blue line and putting an unusual number of them on net.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 187. 2.88 hits per 60 is the 34th percentile among defencemen and 3.34 blocks is the 23rd. There is no physical game and there is no argument for one.

23.7 mph is the second-fastest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, behind his own partner, and 5.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 99th percentile. He is faster than almost every forward in the league and he gets to that speed constantly.

8.51 miles per 60 is the 55th percentile — he does not cover unusual ground; he covers it unusually quickly, which is not the same thing and is the more valuable one.

0.39 penalties taken per 60 is the 19th percentile — 26 penalty minutes in 77 games at nearly 26 a night.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2017, and 178 NHL games at 23 with 180 points and a career plus-77.

His chance share is 56.6 per cent, and it does not move when anyone leaves the ice. Without Devon Toews he is at 57.4, without Nathan MacKinnon 56.9, without Mikko Rantanen 53.0, without Gabriel Landeskog 55.5, without Valeri Nichushkin 55.0. Five different team-mates, five different lines, and the number he posts barely moves. No other figure in this book makes that plain a case for one player.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range
11 of 217 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 5.1%, 97th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it
drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
56.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.1% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.5, 99th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
workhorse· carries the load at even strength
19:29 a game at five-on-five, 93rd percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
sheltered· is started in the attacking end
60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone
“He is faster than almost every forward in the league and he gets to that speed constantly.”
transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control
“he does not cover unusual ground; he covers it unusually quickly, which is not the same thing and is the more valuable one”
clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net
“2.88 hits per 60 is the 34th percentile among defencemen and 3.34 blocks is the 23rd.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,500 minutes

Expected goals: 56.6%; 93rd pct
Shot attempts: 55.5%; 90th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 89 for, 48 against. Expected: 68.8 and 52.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

100th

Numbers

93rd

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 83 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 77 games

Top speed: 23.7 mph; 99th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 2.49 a game
Distance: 3.64 miles a game
Hardest shot: 99.4 mph; 93rd pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1500 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.6% — 4.7 above the club he did it on.
The role: First pair, 1,500 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Devon Toews	56.0%	57.4%	55.6%
Mikko Rantanen	59.9%	53.0%	53.6%
Nathan MacKinnon	56.2%	56.9%	46.3%

56.0% together, 57.4% for him apart and 55.6% for Toews apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

317 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 34 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.