Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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17

Tyson Jost

Minnesota Wild Center

Tenth overall in 2016, 109 points in 342 games, and the 16th-best penalty ledger of 393 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17COL6101-50000911.115:41
2017-18COL65121022-102650111310.614:38
2018-19COL70111526-2144031149.713:00
2019-20COL6781523+11221001157.012:46
2020-21COL5471017+1424001927.614:07
2021-22COL/MIN8081220+234002978.312:50
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3424762109+1012010075408.713:27

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 12 assists in eighty games at 12:50 a night, plus-2, thirty-four penalty minutes, split between Colorado and Minnesota. Tenth overall in 2016, six seasons, 342 games, 109 points.

The Finesse Game

1.34 even-strength points per 60 is the 24th percentile and 5.67 shots per 60 the 21st, at 8.2 per cent. Not one of his twenty points came on the power play. Fifty-nine per cent from the slot at a 22-foot median — the locations are good and there are very few of them.

0.59 giveaways per 60 is the 7th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards, against 2.22 takeaways at the 85th. He takes far more pucks than he loses, which is the clearest thing the record says in his favour.

47.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 27th percentile and 47.4 per cent of the attempts the 28th. Both under water. His season spans two clubs, so the pair figures are mostly Colorado’s and do not belong to this chapter.

The Physical Game

3.22 hits per 60 is the 39th percentile and 2.16 blocks the 75th at 5-11 and 187.

1.70 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile against 0.94 taken, and the net is the 16th-best of 393 forwards. He is difficult to defend legally, which for a fourth-line centre is a genuine and underpriced way to help.

The Intangibles

10.17 miles per 60 is the 34th-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 22.7 mph and 6.3 bursts per 60 — both ordinary. He works harder than almost anyone and is not especially fast.

Six seasons after going tenth overall, the record is 109 points in 342 games and a chance share under fifty. The draft position is not evidence and the games are. What the data does support is a specific fourth-line job: a centre who wins pucks, does not lose them, and draws penalties. That is worth a roster spot and it is not what the tenth pick was for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.70 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile against 0.94 taken, and the net is the 16th-best of 393 forwards.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “0.59 giveaways per 60 is the 7th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards, against 2.22 takeaways at the 85th.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 865 minutes

Expected goals
47.1%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.4%
33rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 30 against. Expected: 28.7 and 32.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
33rd

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
77th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.17 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.2 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with COL · 621 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MIN took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.1% — 6.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
865 minutes at five-on-five — 47th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Johnson45.9%47.5%51.7%
Samuel Girard44.1%48.1%50.0%
Jack Johnson41.2%49.0%47.7%

45.9% together, 47.5% for him apart and 51.7% for Johnson apart. Johnson was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

115 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.