Colorado Avalanche

Central Division, Western Conference · 25 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 261 for, 175 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 52.2% 8th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 52.5% 10th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.90 23rd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.47 5th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +4.0 13th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +8.7 10th of 32

Colorado Avalanche got 8.7 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 9 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.9; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 7.7%; of skater points
From under 26: 18.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 38.7%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 74.1%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The defending champions, sixth in the West, and the control case for this whole book — the process and the record agreed all year, and it still ended in seven games in the first round.

Who this names 11 of 25 on the roster · 51% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Bowen Byram, Andrew Cogliano, Alexandar Georgiev, Samuel Girard, Caleb Jones, Joel Kiviranta, Artturi Lehkonen, Kurtis MacDermid, Ben Meyers, Valeri Nichushkin, Logan O'Connor, Fredrik Olofsson, Ivan Prosvetov, Devon Toews.

What the Quant Says

51-24-7, 109 points, 6th in the league and first in the Central.

280 goals for, 9th. 226 against, 9th. Eighth in shot-attempt share, tenth in chance share, sixteenth at creating chances at even strength and sixth at suppressing them.

At five-on-five: 174 goals scored against 170.0 expected, and 145 conceded against 153.7. The finishing was 13th at plus-4.0 and the goaltending 10th at plus-8.7. Almost nothing in this record was borrowed from percentages in either direction.

That matters more here than anywhere else in this edition. Colorado's process and Colorado's record agreed all season — eighth in attempts, tenth in chances, sixth at suppression, ninth in goals for and ninth against — and the club lost a seven-game first-round series to Seattle as defending champion. This book keeps testing whether the regular season describes the playoffs, and Colorado is the cleanest case against it available.

Nathan MacKinnon had 111 points on 366 shots and 7.69 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the highest figure in the National Hockey League. Mikko Rantanen scored 55 goals. Cale Makar played 60 games.

Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen, Miles Wood, Tomas Tatar, Zach Parise and Caleb Jones all arrive. Erik Johnson, J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues, Alex Newhook and Matt Nieto do not.

Five of the seven arrivals are 27 or older and none of them is a defenceman who plays twenty minutes. Colorado has spent the summer restocking a bottom six while the question at the top of the roster is whether Makar and Manson can play eighty games.

What the Scout Says

Two of the best players alive, the best young defenceman in hockey, and a blue line that spent the season playing a thirty-six-year-old eighty-three times.

Nathan MacKinnon had 111 points and the highest burst count in the league. Cale Makar had 66 points in 60 games at 26:23 a night. Jack Johnson played 83 games at the 5th percentile of chance share.

The top of this roster is as good as any in the book and the depth behind it has been rebuilt from the bargain bin two summers running. The season turns on availability, not on ability.

Who this names 10 of 16 forwards · 73% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Andrew Cogliano, Joel Kiviranta, Kurtis MacDermid, Ben Meyers, Logan O'Connor, Fredrik Olofsson.

What the Quant Says

280 goals, 9th in the league.

Colorado created 2.679 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 16th, and took 52.2 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 8th, and 52.5 per cent of the expected goals, 10th.

At five-on-five it scored 174 goals against an expectation of 170.0 — a surplus of 4.0, 13th in the league. Ninth in goals off the sixteenth-best rate of chance creation, and almost none of the difference was finishing.

Nathan MacKinnon had 42 goals and 111 points in 71 games on 366 shots, the second-largest shot total in the league. Mikko Rantanen scored 55 goals and had 105 points in all 82 — third in goals in this book. Cale Makar had 17 goals and 66 points in 60 games at 26:23 a night, and Devon Toews 50 points and a plus-39.

Artturi Lehkonen had 21 goals in 64 games, Valeri Nichushkin 17 and 47 in 53 with 2 penalty minutes, and Bowen Byram 10 goals in 42 games at 22.

Ross Colton arrives from Tampa Bay, Jonathan Drouin from Montreal, Ryan Johansen from Nashville and Miles Wood from New Jersey.

What the Scout Says

The fastest player in this chapter and a fifty-five-goal winger, on a club that finished sixteenth at making chances.

Nathan MacKinnon is 6-0 and 200 and registers 7.69 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game — the highest figure in the National Hockey League — at 24.0 mph and 3.48 miles a game. He was first overall in 2013 and at 28 has still never won a scoring title or a Hart. The gap between what he does and what he is credited with is the longest-running theme of his career.

Mikko Rantanen is 6-4 and 228 and scored 55 goals, playing every game of a season in which the two men above him on the depth chart did not. The 88 in his shot grade is the highest forward figure in this chapter.

Artturi Lehkonen is a checking winger who became a first-line one — 21 goals in 64 games at twenty minutes a night. Valeri Nichushkin is 6-4 and took 2 penalty minutes in 53 games.

Zach Parise arrives at 39 with 1,224 games and 879 points, taking 62 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet off the softest measured shot on the roster. Tomas Tatar arrives with a 62.1 per cent chance share, the 99th percentile. Jonathan Drouin arrives with 2 goals and 27 assists in 58 games — the widest split between passing and finishing in this edition.

Who this names 7 of 7 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Colorado allowed 2.432 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 6th in the league, and conceded 226 goals, 9th.

At five-on-five it conceded 145 goals against an expectation of 153.7, and the club's goaltending came in 8.7 goals better than the chances it faced, 10th in the league.

Devon Toews played 80 games at 25:06 and finished plus-39 with 43 assists. Cale Makar played 60 at 26:23 — the largest ice-time figure on the club — and covered 3.60 miles a game, the eighth-most of any skater in the league. Samuel Girard is 5-10 and 170 pounds and played 21:30 a night.

Jack Johnson played 83 games at 19:09 and held a 40.5 per cent chance share, the 5th percentile, because Josh Manson missed 55 games and Bowen Byram missed 40. That is the reason and it is not a compliment.

Josh Manson played 27 games at plus-13 with 42 penalty minutes. Caleb Jones arrives from Chicago with the 6th percentile in top speed, and Erik Johnson has gone to Buffalo.

What the Scout Says

The best defenceman in the world at twenty-four, and behind him a pair that was assembled by injury.

Cale Makar is 6-0 and 187 and covers 3.60 miles a game, the eighth-most of any skater in the league, at 23.4 mph and 2.5 bursts a game. He was fourth overall in 2017 with a Norris and a Conn Smythe already. The 95 in skating, the 92 in playmaking and the 90 in hockey sense are the three highest defensive grades in this chapter. He played 60 games, which is the only question in the file.

Devon Toews is 6-1 and 191 and played 25:06 a night at plus-39. He plays the hard side of the top pair and takes the matchup that lets Makar attack; three years of possession numbers say it has worked every time.

Samuel Girard is 5-10 and 170 pounds and plays 21:30 because Colorado has nobody else — the honest reading of the ice time, and the minus-10 is the receipt. Bowen Byram is 22 and scored 10 goals in 42 games with a 23.5 mph top speed at the 97th percentile.

Jack Johnson was third overall in 2005 and has 1,107 games; on a club with a healthy blue line he is a seventh defenceman. Josh Manson is 6-3 and 218 with 485 career penalty minutes and played 27 games. Caleb Jones arrives at the 6th percentile in top speed.

Who this names 10 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

14th in the league at 6.890 expected goals against per 60, over 5:02 a night, 16th in shorthanded time. Ordinary volume, ordinary rate.

Logan O'Connor scored 2 shorthanded goals, Zach Parise 2, Bowen Byram 1, Artturi Lehkonen 1, Valeri Nichushkin 1 and Joel Kiviranta 1.

Andrew Cogliano has 21 career shorthanded goals in 1,219 games, the most on the roster by ten and one of the larger figures in this book. Zach Parise has 11 in 1,224, Artturi Lehkonen 8 in 476, Valeri Nichushkin 5 in 458 and Ryan Johansen 5 in 842.

LW · Colorado Avalanche

The 97th percentile in top speed and the 11th in distance covered — the widest gap in the league between how fast a man is and how far he skates.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.