Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

23

Kurtis MacDermid

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

Six-five and 233 pounds, 89 penalty minutes in 58 games, and 7:24 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18LAK34134-457000195.311:36
2018-19LAK11011-11100050.09:21
2019-20LAK45358-947000515.913:43
2020-21LAK28224-14360001612.513:21
2021-22COL58235+189000464.37:24
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—17681422-272400001375.810:54

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 3 assists in 58 games — 5 points at 7:24 a night, plus-1, with 89 penalty minutes.

48.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 433 minutes. His ice went 18-18 against an expectation of 15.24-16.53.

Four hundred and thirty-three minutes is below the 500 this book requires before it will rank a player, so no percentiles are quoted here. Seven minutes and twenty-four seconds a night is the smallest role on a Stanley Cup roster.

The Finesse Game

Forty-six shots and two goals in 58 games, from a median of 50 feet with 13 per cent from the slot. Twenty-two points in 176 career games.

There is nothing here and there has never been. He is listed as a forward and has played defence, and neither position has produced anything measurable with the puck.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 233. Eighty-nine penalty minutes in 58 games, and 240 in 176 career games, at seven minutes a night.

That rate — more than a penalty minute and a half per game from a fourth-liner who barely dresses — is the entire job, and the club that employed him won the Stanley Cup while giving him seven minutes.

The tracking has no top speed, bursts or zone figures for him, which happens when a player’s shifts are too few and too short for the chips to record a season best.

The Intangibles

Undrafted out of Owen Sound, and 176 NHL games at 28 across Los Angeles and here.

Colorado won a Stanley Cup and its heaviest player took 7:24 a night. That is the modern answer to the enforcer question, and it is not that the role has disappeared — it is that it is now worth seven minutes.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    67.7% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “more than a penalty minute and a half per game from a fourth-liner who barely dresses — is the entire job”

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted out of Owen Sound, and 176 NHL games at 28 across Los Angeles and here.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 433 minutes

Expected goals
48%
39th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.5%
60th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 18 against. Expected: 15.2 and 16.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
39th

The numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 58 games

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 433 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
COL took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.0% — 3.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
433 minutes at five-on-five — 15th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Johnson49.1%47.4%50.8%
Darren Helm40.4%50.4%48.2%
Nazem Kadri59.7%43.2%54.4%

49.1% together, 47.4% for him apart and 50.8% for Johnson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

62 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 58 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.