Colorado Avalanche

What the Quant Says

277 goals, 6th in the league in creating chances at even strength — 2.69 expected goals per 60 — and 3rd in shot-attempt share at 54.2 per cent. A top-five attack by process, and a top-ten one by result.

Nathan MacKinnon put up 116 points and a 58.3 per cent chance share, the 98th percentile among all skaters, and did not slow down when the club traded Mikko Rantanen in January. Cale Makar scored 30 goals from the blue line and 92 points. Martin Necas, the return in that trade, had 83 points across the two clubs. Artturi Lehkonen scored 27 in 69 games from a median of 19 feet with 53 per cent of his shots taken inside 20, and Valeri Nichushkin 21 in 43.

The caution runs the other way from the usual one. Colorado finished 5.4 goals BELOW expectation at five-on-five, 20th in the league. This attack was not lucky. It scored 277 goals with the puck luck running slightly against it.

What the Scout Says

MacKinnon has added a genuinely dangerous one-timer to a game that used to be all rush, and the playmaking has grown every year — 84 assists is a man who has learned to slow down and find the late arrival rather than force the entry he could always win. His median shot comes from 28 feet, which for a player with this much speed means he is getting to the interior rather than settling for the outside.

Martin Necas is among the quickest forwards in the league with the puck and uses it to enter with control rather than to chase dump-ins; the hands work at that speed, which is what makes him more than a track athlete. He does not forecheck with force and does not win pucks along the wall. Artturi Lehkonen does his best offensive work by getting to a spot and being ready, every shift, for 20 minutes. Valeri Nichushkin is 6-4, takes the puck to the net rather than around it, and protects it with his back to pressure better than anyone here — and finishes plays rather than starting them.

Brock Nelson has a heavy release from the slot and is very difficult to move once he is at the net front, and he needs a winger who can carry the puck into the zone because he cannot. Ross Colton has organised his whole game around getting to the places shooters score from. Joel Kiviranta scored 16 on 84 shots, which is the sort of season that is enjoyable once.

What the Quant Says

234 goals conceded and 8th in the league at even-strength expected goals against, 2.35 per 60, which is the half of this team that gets discussed least and is nearly as good as the half that gets discussed most.

Devon Toews played 1,505 five-on-five minutes — more than anyone else on the roster — at 55.3 per cent, the 92nd percentile. Makar was 96th. Samuel Girard, at 5-10 and 170 pounds, took 20:51 a night and posted 53.5 per cent. The structure holds because the top four can all move the puck out without help, which is the cheapest way to defend.

The exposure is size and health. Josh Manson is the only defenceman here who can clear a crease by force, and he played 48 games — his sixth season in nine below 70. Behind him the club is left with three men who are small, one who is 40, and Keaton Middleton, who is 6-6 and cannot skate with the rest of them.

What the Scout Says

The best pairing in hockey, and a group behind it that knows precisely what it is for. Makar does not carry into trouble; he carries until a lane appears and then either shoots — the release is quicker and heavier than it looks — or slides it to a man arriving late, and defensively he ends more plays with his feet than his stick. He will not clear a crease by force and does not try. What he has instead of size is the ability to remove the situation entirely.

Devon Toews is why the arrangement works: a first pass that is quick and almost always right, an ability to beat a forecheck by himself, and a decision not to carry or activate because somebody has to be home. He defends the rush by taking away time rather than space. Samuel Girard escapes pressure by turning away from it, which is the only way a man of 5-10 and 170 survives the retrieval, and when that fails there is no plan B.

Josh Manson supplies the weight — he hits hard and often, clears the front of his net, and has paid for it in games missed every year of his career. Brent Burns still has the shot and the puck decisions have got simpler, which is the correct adjustment; the skating is what has gone. Sam Malinski starts plays rather than finishing them, without the puck-management errors that usually accompany a defenceman that willing, and does not defend the net front. Keaton Middleton is 6-6 and 240 and is on this roster for one reason, which the four men above him cannot do.

What the Quant Says

Mackenzie Blackwood went 28-21-6 with a .9116 across 56 games between San Jose and Colorado, with a 2.55 average and 4 shutouts. Scott Wedgewood took 24 and stopped .9083.

Together they came in 0.1 goals better than the chances faced — 18th in the league, which is to say exactly average. That is the most important number on this page and the one most likely to be misread. Colorado's goaltending did not win it anything last season and did not cost it anything either; the 234 goals against are a defensive structure's work, not a goaltender's.

What it means going forward is that there is no cushion. A club whose crease is league-median has to keep suppressing chances at the 5th-best rate in hockey, every night, and the moment it stops the record moves immediately.

What the Scout Says

The one position that is not settled, and the club has now spent two summers not settling it.

Mackenzie Blackwood looks immovable when he is on, and the consistency has always been the issue rather than the technique. He takes up the net and does not have to be spectacular to make an ordinary save. He is not quick laterally for his size, which is the specific thing separating him from a genuine starter — a puck moved across the royal road finds him a beat late — and the rebound control is ordinary. He spent his best years facing 40 shots a night on rebuilding clubs and never visibly stopped competing, which is the part of him worth buying.

Scott Wedgewood plays a compact, technical game — square, quiet and economical rather than athletic — and he does not fight the puck or scramble unless the play forces it. A decade across 8 organisations as the man who plays when somebody else is hurt, with a temperament even to the point of being unremarkable. He will not steal a game and he will decline to lose one.

Behind a club that concedes as little as this one, both of them will look better than they are. The question is what happens in a series where every save matters and the other side has had six days to find the glove side.

What the Quant Says

7.05 expected goals per 60, 14th, on 4:59 a night — the 6th-heaviest workload in the league. A great deal of opportunity, and league-median production from it.

Makar drove it with 12 power-play goals, Necas 12, MacKinnon 9, Ross Colton 5, Nichushkin 5. With this personnel that is the one genuinely disappointing unit on the roster, and it is the cheapest thing on the club to fix: Victor Olofsson was signed in the summer for exactly one reason, which is a right-handed one-timer from the left circle.

What the Scout Says

As much talent as any unit in the league and a smaller return than any of them, and the reason is that the close work is not staffed.

Makar walks the line and shoots a release that is quicker and heavier than it looks, or gives it to the man arriving, and a killer cannot commit to either. MacKinnon's one-timer is now a genuine second weapon rather than an afterthought. Necas is the entry and the third option, and all three of those are men who do their damage from outside the paint.

Inside it, the club has Nichushkin when he is available and Brock Nelson, who is very difficult to move from the net front, and after that nobody. Ross Colton will go there. Victor Olofsson, signed in the summer, is a specialist and only a specialist: the one-timer from the left circle is a real weapon and everything else about him at five-on-five is perimeter hockey. A unit with this much skill finishing 14th is not a personnel problem at the top. It is 2 men short at the bottom of the umbrella.

What the Quant Says

15th at 6.65 expected goals against per 60, over 4:22 a game — the 8th-lightest workload in the league. Middling at the job, and not asked to do very much of it.

Logan O'Connor and Parker Kelly do the pressuring, Lehkonen takes whatever is left, Colton and Brock Nelson win the draws that start it. Manson clears the net front when he is available, which is the recurring sentence about this club. Neither Makar nor Girard nor Sam Malinski can be asked for the paint, which narrows the rotation to a degree that shows up here and nowhere else.

What the Scout Says

Willing, quick, and short of the one thing that decides kills.

Logan O'Connor is the best forechecker on the roster and the club's most-used killer, and the speed is what makes him dangerous shorthanded — he turns a clearing attempt into a chance. Parker Kelly finishes checks and gets to the interior every shift and has never been given a minute he did not earn. Artturi Lehkonen is trusted in every situation and takes the hard defensive-zone draws. Brock Nelson and Ross Colton win the ones that start it.

Behind them the problem is the same one as at five-on-five. Josh Manson clears the front of his own net and blocks shots and played 48 games. Devon Toews is strong enough on the wall not to be overpowered as often as the frame suggests. Neither Makar nor Girard nor Malinski can be asked for the paint, which leaves Keaton Middleton as the alternative and Middleton cannot keep up with the pace of a kill. 15th is about right, and the club is fortunate to take the 8th-fewest shorthanded minutes in the league.